@Musashi &
@Jake84
Regarding Germany, this is a very simplistic analysis on your part.
Surely, you don't mean to tell me that in so polarised a political climate, the same people who endorsed the pro-immigration, pro-enviromentalist Greens in 2019 just threw themselves at the anti-immigration, anti-environmentalist AfD in a heartbeat? That's schizophrenic.
Yes, Germany does have a problem with immigration-related crime, but it's not like the situation has changed massively over the past three to five years. AfD's strong showing amongst younger voters is due to a variety of reasons.
- In 2019, the Greens' got something of a boost from first-time voters motivated by the Greta Thunberg craze but they were never reliably the strongest political force amongst Germany's under-25. In fact, it was the cente-right liberals who in 2021 won the highest share of the first-time vote. Young voters have a way of throwing themselves at every new thing in town (which is why I'm highly opposed to the vote for under 18's). In 2013, it was the Pirates Party (!) that won a plurality amongst 18-year-olds.
- Recency bias. The islamist attack at Mannheim had the same effect as the 2021 Ahrtal valley floods or the 2019 Greta Thunberg craze.
- The average Greens voter comes from the wealthy suburbs, is female and has an above-average level of education. The Greens like to see themselves as a people's party, but are ultimately elitist. Their 2019 growth was unsustainable.
- AfD has by far the strongest internet presence of all German political parties. They're particularly active on Tiktok and if you check out their content there, it hasn't got a whole lot to do with what the party actually advocates for on a daily basis.
- AfD is a typical protest party. As they're shunned by the mainstream, they're the go-to option for people who want to "teach the government a lesson", with some 40% polling they don't care about AfD's ideology.
- Immigration is not even amongst the top five of issues first-time voter polling identified as important to 18-year-olds today (unfortunately … and neither is the war in Ukraine). What they worry the most about is high prices, energy costs and lack of affordable housing.
As a matter of fact, what I think this election shows the most (and what is mostly misunderstood by all the media and all the parties in this country) is that a significant share of the young population is absolutely apolitical in the classical sense. They don't care about labels like right, left, centre; they have no ideology; and they couldn't give a toss about the grand themes dominating politics.
Personally, I'm rather pleased with these results. Yes, it's regrettable that AfD won so many votes but all-in-all, reason prevailed.