Politics French politics thread

[Jake84]

Haven’t followed closely recent polls but honestly that’s irrelevant for the time being because after dissolving the parliament last July, macron can’t do so again until next summer (12 months in-between says our constitution).

Some have called for him to step down as a President but god forbid that’s not gonna happen. He was during the shitshow playing handsome Frenchman in KSA with MBS and friends.

Point is, he’ll have to appoint a new PM but no election on the foreseeable future.

 

[muck]

Any indication as to who'll it be? What's realistic?

 

[Nansouty]

Macron will speak tonight on TV. It could be any of these three possibilities :
- he steps down
- he nominates a new Prime minister (unlikely IMO, last time it took 3 months...)
-he initiates article 16, which declares an emergency situation and grants the President full powers (I'm simplifying things here)

The likeliest chance, IMO, is it will be a huge nothingburger, Macron doing a Kamala Harris-like word salad. He's going to "noyer le poisson", as the saying goes here (to drown the fish)

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Yeah, nothing ever happens.

It will be more of the same as usual.

 

[Mike1976]

Yeah, nothing ever happens.

It will be more of the same as usual.

"WhY Do sO MaNy pEoPlE No lOnGeR TrUsT GoVeRnMeNtS?!?"

 

[Nansouty]

Going to try my hand at a more elaborate post than above, and make the hypothesis Macron indeed appoints someone as PM. So, let's see a few names :
- Lucie Castets. Formerly a chief accountant at the Paris town council. Utterly unknown till last summer, but the candidate agreed upon by the New Popular Front because a), she's leaning left, b) she's a woman and c), she's (rumored to be) a lesbian. IMO, a non-starter as every other faction in the parliament as vowed to censor her.
- Bernard Cazeneuve. He's a member of the Socialist (in name only) Party and has already held the job. Were he appointed, there is a good chance that the uneasy left-wing coalition would spilt up, as he's very unpalatable to the strong trotskiite faction that is its main component. That would leave him vulnerable to a no-confidence vote, as of course le Pen and the traditional right wing would censor him.
- And François Bayrou. A spineless centrist whose support to Emmanuel Macron's candidacy was pivotal to win him the election in 2017, as it drew ballots from the moderate right wing candidate Fillon. He would make a very weak PM, and also very vulnerable to a no confidence vote as he's hated by almost everyone else.

I think all this will end up with Macron stepping down. This won't be immediate. One can take only so much pressure, though, before giving in, and Macron will be subjected to a lot of it. This will take time, but IMO, before next summer France will hold a new election.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Going to try my hand at a more elaborate post than above, and make the hypothesis Macron indeed appoints someone as PM. So, let's see a few names :
- Lucie Castets. Formerly a chief accountant at the Paris town council. Utterly unknown till last summer, but the candidate agreed upon by the New Popular Front because a), she's leaning left, b) she's a woman and c), she's (rumored to be) a lesbian. IMO, a non-starter as every other faction in the parliament as vowed to censor her.
- Bernard Cazeneuve. He's a member of the Socialist (in name only) Party and has already held the job. Were he appointed, there is a good chance that the uneasy left-wing coalition would spilt up, as he's very unpalatable to the strong trotskiite faction that is its main component. That would leave him vulnerable to a no-confidence vote, as of course le Pen and the traditional right wing would censor him.
- And François Bayrou. A spineless centrist whose support to Emmanuel Macron's candidacy was pivotal to win him the election in 2017, as it drew ballots from the moderate right wing candidate Fillon. He would make a very weak PM, and also very vulnerable to a no confidence vote as he's hated by almost everyone else.

I think all this will end up with Macron stepping down. This won't be immediate. One can take only so much pressure, though, before giving in, and Macron will be subjected to a lot of it. This will take time, but IMO, before next summer France will hold a new election.

That's kind of reassuring, somehow, since I had been hearing rumors about Segolène Royal being on the list.

So, she isn't in the end? If so that's pretty good.

 

[Nansouty]

Well, I have heard rumors about "Sego la dinde du Poitou" since my last post. She says she's ready for the job, she might be more suitable than Castets who looks very, very underwhelming... But it looks like Bayrou is in the lead though.

 

[Jake84]

Macron stepping down is a possibility since he did trigger a parliamentary election that was rather unexpected, but IMO it’s going to take a lot of pressure from the streets, every of his political opponents and a couple more of vote of no-confidence for the next few months until we reach a point of no return.

What I said before about him not stepping down is based on his ego and that of his peers that cannot brag enough about the good they did for this country, but ultimately @Nansouty may be right: anything’s possible.

 

[Nansouty]

He just finished his speech on French TV. As I guessed, a big nothingburger. No prime minister, no resignation, and thankfully no article 16. 10 minutes of my life wasted in more insufferable boredom. *yawn*

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Well, it was a speech by Macron.

 

[Fluff]

And I thought UK politics was full of chancers, liars and fakers.....

Popcorn anyone?

 

[Jake84]

In all honesty I’ve given up being serious about politics as the world is crazy. I try to keep a sense of humor about it and that’s it. UK, Germany and France… other countries and especially within the EU are becoming more ungovernable by the day. I laugh it off as long as I don’t get an ICBM on my building from some dictator whims.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

And I thought UK politics was full of chancers, liars and fakers.....

Popcorn anyone?

Thing is, in France they don't even pretend to be anything but.

Unless it is for the presidential elections, in which case they have a plan, a vision, a project, etc... and it will work! Trust me I will do all of the stuff.

When it comes do creating a government though, that's a whole other topic. They get their friends in, the very vast majority of whom have absolutely no experience in the field they are supposed to supervise, and once in a while the deck gets reshuffled.
Why? Nobody really knows, sometimes it is "just because".
Then they move one to another job at a bank, insurance company, etc... or something equally fictitious in nature, landing even higher salaries and pensions.
And then they come back.

Basically it is a CV padding machine.

 

[PEMM]

Marine Le Pen sentenced for embezzlement.

Let me guess:"Politically machinated court case." The go to answer of every corrupt politician.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen barred from running for public office after conviction in fake EU assistant jobs trial
The ruling could mean that Le Pen will not be able to stand for president in the 2027 elections. The three-time presidential candidate was accused of having hired four fictitious assistants when she was an MEP.

A Paris court on Monday, March 31, sentenced far-right leader Marine Le Pen to a five-year ban on running for office with immediate effect, throwing into doubt her bid to stand for president in 2027. The judge also gave her a four-year prison term, two of which suspended with the other two to be served with an electronic tag, drawing immediate criticism from her party and other far-right leaders.

In addition to the suspicions of fictitious employment, the court suspects Le Pen of having been at the heart of an organized and centralized "embezzlement system" of money paid by the EU to her party, between 2004 and 2016.

On the stand in the fall of 2024, Le Pen denied the very notion of a system, claiming there was a lack of evidence and criticizing the lies peddled by former colleagues driven, she said, by "vengeance."

Including Le Pen, nine figures from the RN were convicted. Twelve assistants were also convicted of concealing a crime, with the court estimating the scheme was worth €2.9 million.

The Kremlin on Monday was the first to react to Le Pen's conviction, saying more and more "European capitals are going down the path of violating democratic norms," according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov who was speaking to reporters in a briefing.

Le Pen will speak on French TV at 8pm.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen barred from running for public office after conviction in fake EU assistant jobs trial

The ruling could mean that Le Pen will not be able to stand for president in the 2027 elections. The three-time presidential candidate was accused of having hired four fictitious assistants when she was an MEP.

www.lemonde.fr

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Heh... embezzlement is a famous hobby among the French political class.

Especially when it comes to "fake-assistants" and "fictitious jobs".

Would be nice if it could set a precedent. But it likely won't.

 

[Mike1976]

Marine Le Pen sentenced for embezzlement.

Let me guess:"Politically machinated court case." The go to answer of every corrupt politician.

Sending the judicial branch after your political rivals on charges of fraud when they become too big for comfort.

The actions of a dictator like Putin healthy democracy.

 

[Jake84]

Surely would mean the end of the political career of Marine Le Pen after unsuccessfully trying to get the presidency.

This has Macron and big French establishments written all over it. As much as I am not her biggest supporter; other more mainstream parties get away with similar things but they’re within our reasonable motto: Liberté, égalité, Fraternité.

What a joke.

Even Melenchon stated this National Rally party needs to be defeated in the polls - not in kangaroo courts.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Sending the judicial branch after your political rivals on charges of fraud when they become too big for comfort.

The actions of a dictator like Putin healthy democracy.

If we go down the "pattern noticer" path, yeah...

Romanian opposition leader banned.
Brazilian opposition leader banned.
French opposition leader banned.
Moldova bans opposition party.
Germany tries to ban the AFD.
America tried to ban Trump.

That's quite a lot in a short period of time.

Now has she committed the crime?
Apparently. Didn't follow up the case.
Is it plausible?
As I said, French politics and embezzlement go hand in hand.
Is the sanction deserved?
Heh... compared to what other French politicians got accused of, and how they got out, her sanction seems rather harsh. I, frankly, wouldn't be surprised if the fact she is a LePen and the biggest contender to the Presidency played a significant role in her sentencing.

 

[PEMM]

Even Melenchon stated this National Rally party needs to be defeated in the polls - not in kangaroo courts.

Are the French courts really such kangaroo courts, that they can be encouraged to give arbitrary sentenced?

In Romania and Moldova I can believe, but in France?

I assume this is the first step, and can be appealed?

Personally I don't want corrupt people as my representatives, even if our views align.