Then things got weird. NYC repealed its ban on transporting handguns out of the city, in an attempt to moot
NYSRPA before the Court could rule squarely on the 2A merits. And it worked — the Court ruled the case moot, avoiding the 2A question. But the opinions were interesting: Thomas, Gorsuch, and Alito all dissented head-on. Kavanaugh wrote a nuanced concurrence, agreeing that the case was technically moot but noting “that some federal and state courts may not be properly applying
Heller and
McDonald” and that the “Court should address that issue soon, perhaps in one of the several Second Amendment cases with petitions for certiorari now pending before the Court.”
That last sentence sums it up. You’ve got four justices tipping their hands that they’d vote to grant cert on more 2A cases. Remember, four votes is all you need. And then two months later, all ten 2A cases before the Court get denied?
That can only have happened if at least one of the four justices voted to deny. Their track records on this are all long enough that they wouldn’t have done that out of a change of heart. The much likelier explanation is simple:
they knew they had four votes, but didn’t know if they had five. And they’d rather deny cert on gun cases until they’re sure they have a fifth vote, to avoid setting bad 2A precedent.
So now we know where things stand. We shouldn’t expect any 2A cases to be heard by the current Court. Supreme Court action is extremely powerful, which is why it draws so much attention, but it’s just one avenue. And for guns, it has been a less important one than you might expect.
Heller and
McDonald were landmarks but they had minimal real-world effects — they mostly only affected D.C. and Chicago.
All the progress we’ve made as a community —
the CCW tidal wave; the AR-15’s ascent into ubiquity; the long-term polling shifting towards gun rights, especially among young people — that has all been done with essentially zero help from the courts. So the job today is the same as it was yesterday: keep the work going. Make more gun owners. Train them up. Build the community. Be cool and friendly. If this whole community keeps working on that like it has been for the past 10+ years, we’re going to get the results that we all want to see.