Politics The COVID-19 pandemic news and discussion.

[Junglejim]

China said on Monday that the death toll from a deadly viral outbreak spiked to 80 as the hard-hit epicentre province of Hubei suffered 24 new fatalities, while total confirmed cases nationwide rose sharply to 2,744.

While there were no new deaths confirmed outside of Hubei, the national tally of verified infections rose by 769, around half of them in Hubei, the National Health Commission said. It said 461 of those infected were in serious condition.

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[Flagg]

When a M.D writes on the net that an transmissible infectious disease reaching 3+% of mortality is "not terribly lethal" you can question his credential. Especially with a R0 between 1.5 and 2.4 as it was assessed for this coronavirus.
Sure it is not Ebola but Ebola has a R0 of 0.9 to 1.1.
What is more scary, a virus that has a mean lethality of 60% but will disapear after fw thousand cases (even if 2013 epidemy reached 16000 persons) or a virus that will double the number of contaminated persons every day, even with a lethality of 3-5%.

Every infectiologist will tell you anyway that any airborne transmissible infectious disease with a lethality above 1% is a serious thing.
Flu is not terribly lethal yet it kills 250 k to 600 k people each year with a mortality rate from aroun 0.8%.
We have here a virus with the same rate of transmission than flu and three or four fold more lethal.

Agreed.

4 fold sucks a lot worse than usual, but it's not 28 Days Later either.

Unfortunately, behavioural economics combined with political economics dictates that the government will not do the right things in the wake of this. Because it doesn't pay to do so. Better to buy votes with bold spending initiatives once the viral horse has bolted from the burning bubonic barn.

What I'd like to see that is actually quite reasonable would be nudging behaviours used going forward.

Get rid of incredibly stupid terrorism risk alerts and replace them with something akin to weather reports that include pollen/UV or traffic congestion.

Come up with a CARVER like matrix for viral/pandemic risk.

As the risk scoring increases, so too should public awareness and escalating reminders for individual, family, and community best practices/behaviours.

And we go about our lives, but making necessary adjustments(small to big) for localised pollen count, UV, and traffic congestion.

Same for viral infection.

We're far more likely to die from a virus than terrorism, so it's logical to renew a relevant alert system.

 

[Mordoror]

Agreed.

4 fold sucks a lot worse than usual, but it's not 28 Days Later either.

Unfortunately, behavioural economics combined with political economics dictates that the government will not do the right things in the wake of this. Because it doesn't pay to do so. Better to buy votes with bold spending initiatives once the viral horse has bolted from the burning bubonic barn.

What I'd like to see that is actually quite reasonable would be nudging behaviours used going forward.

Get rid of incredibly stupid terrorism risk alerts and replace them with something akin to weather reports that include pollen/UV or traffic congestion.

Come up with a CARVER like matrix for viral/pandemic risk.

As the risk scoring increases, so too should public awareness and escalating reminders for individual, family, and community best practices/behaviours.

And we go about our lives, but making necessary adjustments(small to big) for localised pollen count, UV, and traffic congestion.

Same for viral infection.

We're far more likely to die from a virus than terrorism, so it's logical to renew a relevant alert system.

No, of course 3% of mortality is no Day of the Dead or Armageddon

Issue is more in transmission. After all Spanish flu had around the same mortality rate (2.5-5%) and everybody is still using it as a reference like the modern Black Death Pandemic". Because it spred quickly and infected a lot of people. The pattern of transmission of this nCoV is the same, with rame rate and approximatively same mortality (with difference that it kills 50y+ rather than young adults)

Is it the end of the world ? nope. Can it turn serious if not controled and restricted ? yes

As for public awareness and good practices directives, they are pretty widespread since 2003 and the H1N1 alert. Yet; people being people, you can see a lot of people sneezing and coughing wide open and a lot of people not washing hands even before and after going for a dump.

I cannot emphasize this enough ; washing your hands regulalry will prevent 90% of transmissible conditions

 

[Junglejim]

But but I already cleaned my rifle to shoot at the infected (or not infected when nobody is looking.)

 

[primer]

Hong Kong Rugby Sevens to go ahead.

 

[colin traveller]

First Coronavirus cases in southern California;

Coronavirus spreads to Los Angeles, Orange County: How concerned should we be about spread?

California has its first case of coronavirus -- in Orange County.

www.latimes.com

All flights from China been banned for the time being .... ? What about Vessels sailing from Chinese ports ??

 

[Mordoror]

All flights from China been banned for the time being .... ? What about Vessels sailing from Chinese ports ??

15 days of incubation. The hosts were probably there before any travel restriction. As somebody else said, the cat is already out of the bag.

 

[Mordoror]

But but I already cleaned my rifle to shoot at the infected (or not infected when nobody is looking.)

Avoid the lungs area. You wouldn't want to worsen the contamination by drilling explosive holes in these organs, you maniac

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Hong Kong Rugby Sevens to go ahead.

That's weird.

Beijing and HK canceled their New Year celebrations, some other cities as well probably, but they are still allowing that big sport event to take place?

That's kind of... lacking, in term of logic and consistency. Though the Rugby Sevens event may attract less people than the New Year celebrations, it is still a big gathering.

 

[Junglejim]

Avoid the lungs area. You wouldn't want to worsen the contamination by drilling explosive holes in these organs, you maniac

Awww i knew you cared, thanks for that pro tip. pelvic then headshots it is.

That's weird.

Beijing and HK canceled their New Year celebrations, some other cities as well probably, but they are still allowing that big sport event to take place?

That's kind of... lacking, in term of logic and consistency. Though the Rugby Sevens event may attract less people than the New Year celebrations, it is still a big gathering.

Its the same peeps ho burned a government designated quarantine site as a sign of protest

 

[bdpopeye]

The first 15 minutes or more of this video is a must watch. Serpentza, the South African, worked in Chinese hospitals for several years instructing proper health care.

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[Mordoror]

Aside that (and because i want to be the prophet of Dooom of the board)
There is an ongoing episode of Lassa fever infection in Nigeria (19 deaths since the beginning of the year)...
And Ebola is still active in RDC despite vaccine and strong international help
Ah an there is also an ongoing outbreak of Monkeypox from Nigeria and RDC that spred itself to UK, Israel and Singapore
Happy 2020 year ....

 

[primer]

According to the official Mr Jones from the NZ ministry of health,... don't panic, don't panic.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Some interesting development:

Wuhan mayor admits 'withholding information' on coronavirus outbreak

Zhou Xianwang, the mayor of Wuhan, also said that the city had seen human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus on a large scale during an interview with state broadcaster CCTV.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Dercius]

2800 recognized cases and people in the know already speculating about 100.000-200.000 cases...

Its not Ebola, but a 3-5% death rate is huge if the virus goes widespread worldwide. And we are not taking into account that the areas hit have average-good medical healthcare.It gives me the creeps to imagine this virus hitting hard Nigeria, Congo, North Korea,Venezuela and the likes. That would be a tragedy and they could easily got into two digit numbers, basically due to lack of treatment/complications.

Hoping for the best anyway.

 

[Dercius]

Some interesting development:

Wuhan mayor admits 'withholding information' on coronavirus outbreak

Zhou Xianwang, the mayor of Wuhan, also said that the city had seen human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus on a large scale during an interview with state broadcaster CCTV.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Seems like the kind of chinese official that suicides by firing squad

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Seems like the kind of chinese official that suicides by firing squad

Zhou Xianwang said the handling of the crisis was 'not good enough' and added that he and his deputy will resign over the case.

Not good enough... that's kind of an understatement.

As for him and his deputy resigning, I imagine that resignation will not be limited to their current job, but will extend to their life.

 

[Junglejim]

Germany confirms first Wuhan coronavirus case

More than 80 people are dead in China as the Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread. Follow here for the latest updates.

edition.cnn.com

Germany confirms first Wuhan coronavirus case
From CNN’s Alla Eshchenko and Leona Siaw

Germany has reported its first case of Wuhan coronavirus, according to a statement released by the Bavarian Ministry of Health in Munich late Monday.
A man from the district of Starnberg contracted the virus, the statement read.
The patient is being monitored medically and has been isolated, according to the State Office for Health and Food Safety. The patient is also "clinically in good condition."
The Bavarian Ministry of Health considers the risk of infection for the people of Bavaria currently as low.

 

[riderboy]

To people with medical knowledge, does a coronavirus have specificities making it more threatening or hard to cure?

You know, I'm not sure. I've seen a mortality rate of 3-4% quoted which is nothing like other viruses like Ebola. Particularly if those are the young, elderly or immunocompromised. But right now I think the bigger concern is how accurate the information is we are getting from China. So we just have to keep Kung Flu fighting.....

 

[Junglejim]

Actually calling out the mortality rate means nothing for now. it could be less than one percent, but if it is highly infective and gets out of China and hits the border states with no infrastructure that could get worse rightricketytick.
-Vietnam and Thailand can hold it off
- Others not so much.