The situation in the south-east of Ukraine is stalemate.
Ukraine will not voluntarily give up the full independence of the DPR and LPR, but will not be able to stage a cosplay of the Croatian operation "Tempest".

And don't forget that many civilians have received Russian passports. If the Ukrainian military starts killing Russian citizens, then the Russian army will simply have to protect them. And we will see a new peace enforcement operation, like in Georgia in 2008.

And friends from NATO will not defend Ukraine (they did not defend Georgia), they will express their deep concern and that's it.

Then there will be sanctions, debates in the UN, but this will not fix the situation. It is easier for Ukraine to let go of the rebellious territories and start developing its country for the benefit of the remaining Ukrainian citizens.
 
War. War Never Change.
 

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Then there will be sanctions, debates in the UN, but this will not fix the situation. It is easier for Ukraine to let go of the rebellious territories and start developing its country for the benefit of the remaining Ukrainian citizens.

I doubt that the decision on releasing DPR and LPR (and Crimea for that matter) is entirely on Ukraine to decide. It's a proxy war, and Ukraine is a proxy.
 
and Crimea for that matter
The Crimean issue is completely closed for Crimea and Russia. Nobody is interested in the opinion of other countries on this matter.
I am a Crimean;)
And we are not against the establishment of good-neighborly relations with Ukraine, many have relatives on both sides of the border.
 
The Crimean issue is completely closed for Crimea and Russia. Nobody is interested in the opinion of other countries on this matter.
I am a Crimean;)
And we are not against the establishment of good-neighborly relations with Ukraine, many have relatives on both sides of the border.

Yeah I get that.
What I mean is that for as long as Crimea is not recognized by western "partners" it can be used in political games, sanctions, etc. I don't think the west will allow Ukraine to release this card so easily.
 
Looks to me like Russia is going full out to call US/NATO's bluff on Ukraine, something along the lines of "We're ready to go in guns blazing, what about you?"

That might also be just simply chest beating from Russian side, to see if US/NATO fall from itor is impressed enough to back down.

However I won't bet on that. If we look back in the day when Russia had take Crimea and started the war in Donbas they also filled the internet with the maps of Novorussia going from Donbas to Crimea to Odessa and Danube and Transnistria in Republic of Moldova (also a frozen conflict supported by Russia). It would have cut Ukraine from the Black Sea and extend Russia up to the Danube, and lots of preparations were made for that (unfortunately for them some Russophiles from Odessa for example were brutally taken down).

It was like Russia was preparing the world for such a take over and formation of a new Russian puppet state but then some stuff happened. Like the Glonass system going out of function for couple times in a row (the silly explanation provided by Russia was some solar explosions who strangely didn't affected the GPS system for example), then Russia unexplained losing their only geostationary spy satellite over USA, who went off line without warning.

In the same time frame some photos of unseen before "flying triangles" were photographed in US "by chance"


Shortly after the whole Novorussia thing melted down and Russia halted the offensive in Ukraine, keeping just what it grabbed by that time, Crimea and half of Donbas.

The harsh truth is that US have a significant technological advance, and sooner or later, actually sooner, the ICBM will also become obsolete (they are an increasingly older technology anyway, started with the German V2 in WW 2).

US hold an advantage in space and also especially in stealth technologies. They also lead in electronic warfare. Thats why Russia struggle to find new ways to hold to that so called MAD, by looking for autonomous torpedoes with big nukes in them, or for nuclear cruise missiles (both as charge and propulsion, to attack from unexpected directions).

I say is a loosing battle for them, in the medium and long term. They also pissed off most of their neighbours (NATO expanded due to Russia behaviour not because US insisted, there are also know the problems with Japan and Kurile islands in the other side, in far east, and despite temporary working together with China for momentary common interests the Chinese kids still learn in school that parts of Siberia are just Chinese territories temporarely under foreign administration, those taken by Russia from China during the Opium Wars troubles).

Sure, Russia can defeat Ukraine in Donbas, can even push further along the sea coast toward the Danube. But the backlash will be also strong and hard to keep up. Sure, some people might say that US/NATO will be blocked by a fear of a nuclear war, but this should be even more true for Russian side. Putin and his gang are extremely wealthy and live the high life more then most of anyone else. Will they risk to die in a nasty way and lose all that just for pushing up a bit too much for a foreign sphere of influence and getting things out of control by forcing others to react? I don't think so, especially when the balance of forces is increasingly against them on strategic level
 
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The harsh truth is that US have a significant technological advance,

The harsh truth is that US have demented Commander in Chief who came to power in questionable way and as we know the rot starts from the head. The virus impact and strugle with China on top of it can nulify all the real or imaginary advantage US has.
 
The harsh truth is that US have demented Commander in Chief who came to power in questionable way and as we know the rot starts from the head. The virus impact and strugle with China on top of it can nulify all the real or imaginary advantage US has.
First item, probably true.

Second item, thats a big bet to make......
 
That might also be just simply chest beating from Russian side, to see if US/NATO fall from itor is impressed enough to back down.

However I won't bet on that. If we look back in the day when Russia had take Crimea and started the war in Donbas they also filled the internet with the maps of Novorussia going from Donbas to Crimea to Odessa and Danube and Transnistria in Republic of Moldova (also a frozen conflict supported by Russia). It would have cut Ukraine from the Black Sea and extend Russia up to the Danube, and lots of preparations were made for that (unfortunately for them some Russophiles from Odessa for example were brutally taken down).

It was like Russia was preparing the world for such a take over and formation of a new Russian puppet state but then some stuff happened. Like the Glonass system going out of function for couple times in a row (the silly explanation provided by Russia was some solar explosions who strangely didn't affected the GPS system for example), then Russia unexplained losing their only geostationary spy satellite over USA, who went off line without warning.

In the same time frame some photos of unseen before "flying triangles" were photographed in US "by chance"


Shortly after the whole Novorussia thing melted down and Russia halted the offensive in Ukraine, keeping just what it grabbed by that time, Crimea and half of Donbas.

The harsh truth is that US have a significant technological advance, and sooner or later, actually sooner, the ICBM will also become obsolete (they are an increasingly older technology anyway, started with the German V2 in WW 2).

US hold an advantage in space and also especially in stealth technologies. They also lead in electronic warfare. Thats why Russia struggle to find new ways to hold to that so called MAD, by looking for autonomous torpedoes with big nukes in them, or for nuclear cruise missiles (both as charge and propulsion, to attack from unexpected directions).

I say is a loosing battle for them, in the medium and long term. They also pissed off most of their neighbours (NATO expanded due to Russia behaviour not because US insisted, there are also know the problems with Japan and Kurile islands in the other side, in far east, and despite temporary working together with China for momentary common interests the Chinese kids still learn in school that parts of Siberia are just Chinese territories temporarely under foreign administration, those taken by Russia from China during the Opium Wars troubles).

Sure, Russia can defeat Ukraine in Donbas, can even push further along the sea coast toward the Danube. But the backlash will be also strong and hard to keep up. Sure, some people might say that US/NATO will be blocked by a fear of a nuclear war, but this should be even more true for Russian side. Putin and his gang are extremely wealthy and live the high life more then most of anyone else. Will they risk to die in a nasty way and lose all that just for pushing up a bit too much for a foreign sphere of influence and getting things out of control by forcing others to react? I don't think so, especially when the balance of forces is increasingly against them on strategic level

The whole thing you wrote is extremely far-fetched.

Firstly, I'm no expert of course, but I would assume Russia had a far greater reliance on satellite navigation when it came to its operation in Syria, taking into account the scope, unpredictability of the warzone, and daily air missions numbering in hundreds per day if I am not mistaken. It did not seem that US "hyper advanced technology" was able to stop Russia from partaking in large operations far from its own borders. But apparently it can stop Russia from operating on its own former territories?

GLONASS malfunctioning - "maybe because of Ukraine", but "maybe not because of Syria" is just weird.

Russia "flooding" the internet with "Novorussia" maps to me seems nothing more nor less than the true nature of the internet itself. In part 4chan-inspired culture, in part me pushing a few maps myself online, because I was quite into Photoshop and Illustrator back then.

With regard to nukes, you conveniently left out Russia's advancements in hypersonic technology.

Sure, Russia can defeat Ukraine in Donbas, can even push further along the sea coast toward the Danube. But the backlash will be also strong and hard to keep up. Sure, some people might say that US/NATO will be blocked by a fear of a nuclear war, but this should be even more true for Russian side. Putin and his gang are extremely wealthy and live the high life more then most of anyone else. Will they risk to die in a nasty way and lose all that just for pushing up a bit too much for a foreign sphere of influence and getting things out of control by forcing others to react? I don't think so, especially when the balance of forces is increasingly against them on strategic level

Ah okay, I should have started by reading the final paragraph in your post. Not worth responding ?

So to summarize your post:
1. USA is extremely advanced in shadow technology and flying triangles that destroy satellites.
2. Russia and USA have equal stakes in risking nuclear war over a territory that was traditionally Russia's backyard for hundreds of years.
3. Something something about Putin being a gang-leader.
 
The Russian history of Crimea began a long time ago, around the time when American separatists and terrorists appeared in the colonies of the British Empire. At the same time in France, terrorists staged a "Maidan", overthrew the king and chopped off his head.
LOL, this is history.
 
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imagine the audacity of civilians trying to defend themselves from the peaceful tanks and rifles.
how dare those civilians try to block them.
now shelling civilian buildings makes sense... since the civilians are against us, a civilian apartment building is one of their main bases! it just an assembly point, therefore fair game.
if they hadnt tried to defend themselves, none of this would have happened...
:rolleyes:
 
The Russian history of Crimea began a long time ago, around the time when American separatists and terrorists appeared in the colonies of the British Empire. At the same time in France, terrorists staged a "Maidan", overthrew the king and chopped off his head.
LOL, this is history.
You also need to go with the BLM in Haiti part, so the millenials and SJWs get interested ? ? ;)
 
I don't know what sources to trust. Usually in the event of war, nobody is to be trusted on information. So I'm just putting out whatever I find:

1618423106102.png


Supposedly LNR has cancelled preparations for 9th May parade and put all security and rescue forces on high alert, and told all medics to carry a med pack with them?

For a moment (the last few days at least) felt like tensions died down and some kind of behind-the-scenes agreement was reached. But maybe not.
 
2. Russia and USA have equal stakes in risking nuclear war over a territory that was traditionally Russia's backyard for hundreds of years.

Yeah, and Russia is pushing others, so it's not equal at all. Especially that this "backyard" of yours could be treated as such by some other parties.

And it's not about Crimea at this point, am I right? I think it's already lost for Ukraine.
 
Yeah, and Russia is pushing others, so it's not equal at all. Especially that this "backyard" of yours could be treated as such by some other parties.

I'm not sure what you're implying. Ukraine is so to speak the "backyard" of everything in the region, including Russia, Poland, Romania, Hungary.
But when it comes to "playing nuclear chicken", none of these states (aside from Russia) can play the game. All they can rely upon are their allies either in western Europe or US that can provide the nuclear-card to partake in this nuclear-chicken game.
The only problem, is that by delegating the nuclear-chicken card to these eastern NATO members, western Europe and US are risking themselves to pay the full price of the defeat, if their delegates lose the game against Russia. In which case, there is definitely no equal stakes here. The actual players aren't the delegates, it's the western powers vs. Russia. So the question remains, who is willing to place the highest bets? Those who are the highest affected? Or those who are only using the eastern playing field as a means of waging proxy conflicts?
Obviously, those closest to the fireworks have the highest stakes in the game.
 

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