Politics Protests in Belarus

[berkut76]

pro-Putin media will always include at least ones of these countries because it's an easy sell to the Russian public.

Pro-Putin media like I have stated multiple times in this thread is vehemently anti-Lukashenko. I read them every day because they give a complete and objective picture, so far. Today, the chief editor and owner of one the moderate pro-Kremlin newspapers stated that the best thing Putin can do now is to call Lukashenko and ask him to step down. The other far less moderate online portal put in print that we disagree with opposition on almost anything, but not when it comes to Belarus. They also gloated as to how Lukashenko was "greeted" by the workers at major defense companies.

 

[Mike1976]

Pro-Putin media like I have stated multiple times in this thread is vehemently anti-Lukashenko. I read them every day because they give a complete and objective picture, so far. Today, the chief editor and owner of one the moderate pro-Kremlin newspapers stated that the best thing Putin can do now is to call Lukashenko and ask him to step down. The other far less moderate online portal put in print that we disagree with opposition on almost anything, but not when it comes to Belarus. They also gloated as to how Lukashenko was "greeted" by the workers at major defense companies.

Why do you keep talking about Lukashenko? To the Russians he's expendable, the buffer state that is Belarus is not same as Ukraine which due to the contested territory has been effectively ruled out of NATO and EU membership which is all that Russia wanted. "Kadyrov's" are a dime a dozen. He's gone against Moscow and will pay the price for it. Putin has stated his displeasure with the encroachment of NATO and the EU on the Russian border since the early 2000s, has become increasingly active in countering it and there comes a point where he will go to war to protect the buffer which has been a key aspect of the Russian national security strategy for many decades across many different leaders. They've already gone into Ukraine semi-overtly, this latest gambit by the EU might well push them towards fully overt action. At that point the EU would cry wolf, but it would be irrelevant to Putin as only the Russian population has to support him. Being cheered in Berlin like Obama was is not something Putin desires in the slightest. Putin does not like to be humiliated, his entire legitimacy as a man of strong uncompromising leadership depends on it. There is a red line that has been mentioned before to be Belarus and unlike Obama Putin has the guts to act on that red line being openly crossed by EU interference in the Belarusian election. Russian doctrine for internal support for the Putin regime is based on the threat of an external force encroaching on Russia to keep the population in line. Poke the bear too often and he's going to lash out.

 

[berkut76]

Why do you keep talking about Lukashenko? To the Russians he's expendable, the buffer state that is Belarus is not. Kadyrov's are a dime a dozen. He's gone against Moscow and will pay the price for it. Putin has stated his displeasure with the encroachment of NATO and the EU on the Russian border since the early 2000s, has become increasingly active in countering it and there comes a point where he will go to war to protect the buffer which has been a key aspect of the Russian national security strategy for many decades across many different leaders. They've already gone into Ukraine semi-overtly, this latest gambit by the EU might well push them towards fully overt action. Putin does not like to be humiliated, his entire legitimacy as a man of strong uncompromising leadership depends on it. There is a red line that has been mentioned before to be Belarus and unlike Obama Putin has the guts to act on that red line being openly crossed by EU interference in the Belarusian election. Russian doctrine for internal support for the Putin regime is based on the threat of an external force encroaching on Russia to keep the population in line. Poke the bear too often and he's going to lash out.

That I agree with, but does Putin has resources and consensus to go in and occupy the whole country!? This is the big question. Timing is also an issue. He can't really go in until US Presidential elections.

 

[Mike1976]

That I agree with, but does Putin has resources and consensus to go in and occupy the whole country!? This is the big question. Timing is also an issue. He can't really go in until US Presidential elections.

How much of the Belarusian armed forces and security service would support such a move is the only question that matters. In terms of organization and cooperation they are part of the Russian armed forces in all but name. Individual soldiers ignoring orders are easily rounded up and shot. Police, civilians, legal system all irrelevant because they don't have the force and/or are the first on the list to be replaced. If it's the vast majority of the armed forces that could be a problem unless only occupying a part of the country would suffice for maintaining the buffer like they did (/tried to do) in Ukraine. And again even taking part of the country would still prevent Belarus from fully turning towards NATO and the EU. Regardless he certainly has the resources. The Russians semi-regularly conduct exercises of 100-300k troops near the border. The Belarusian armed forces are 62,000 strong and would be overwhelmed long before the reserves can be called up. Georgia has 37,000 and they cut through them with ease. Ukraine has 255,000 and had all the trouble in the world holding back irregulars and Russian units with only a limited part of their arsenal, no air support and only limited cross-border artillery fire. Russia has 900,000 active personnel. It's in an entirely different league if it decides to commit.

Neither Trump nor Biden will intervene militarily just like no one did in Ukraine. No legal basis and none of the NATO allies would even consider it. Even more sanctions would only reinforce the Russian narrative of Russia being besieged by NATO and the EU to the population making his position even stronger. As a Russian on MP.net once explained all Russians old enough to remember the poverty, hunger and chaos of the collapse of the USSR will support anyone that prevents that from ever happening again at any cost. If that means supporting a dictator and his oligarch friends so be it. Only a protracted conflict turning into actual war could hurt him but given the division within Belarus and the force disparity I don't see that happening. The West simply doesn't understand the Russian mindset and the way they view the right to self-determination of the states bordering them. Allied - good, neutral - ok, pro-Western - unacceptable.

 

[Musashi]

During WW2 hardly any place in the USSR saw more widespread and passionate partizan activity for Mother Russia than Belarus. They have traditionally been heavily pro-Russian.

They were very much pro-Russian in the part of Belarus that belonged to the Soviet Union before 1939, while the most of today's Belarus belonged to Poland at that time. Once Poland won the war with the Soviet Russia, the border was just a few kms to the west of Minsk.
On top of that there's an official 300k+ Polish minority living in Belarus with the unofficial number reaching 1 million.

No one in Poland (some extremist splinter group maybe, but they are irrelevant) is suggesting military force, but that kind of message is not meant for any of us, it is to prepare the Russian people for the liberation of Belarus from "fascists". The exact same playbook as Ukraine 2014.

Noone is Poland, which is precisely noone suggest any military action against Belarus. Your hypothetical extremist groups simply don't exist.4
In general, Poland's reaction has been extremely slow and delayed, as the Polish government did not not want to get involved in that due to having relatively good relations with Lukashenko. I mean much better than the previous government that lost the elections in 2015.
However, the parliamentary opposition accused the government of being passive and pointed out that a much smaller Lithuania has overtaken Poland's role when it comes to supporting democratic reforms in Belarus.
Then the government made the move. First, the Polish president and the PM made an appeal to the European parliament to issue a joint statement and get more involved. As "traditionally" Euro MPs are on a holiday in August, the EU officials did not give a sh1t initially. Both the Polish PM and the president kept pressing them, so they agreed about dealing with the case in August.

@berkut76
what kind of help did Ukraine receive from Belarus in 2014 in order to stop the Russian invasion? Do you have any sources?

 

[Musashi]

Never was a Russian (Belorussia/Ukraine included) tradition in post-Soviet history.

Some countries don't need to be "ss-ed":

Belarusian noun - Definition, pictures, pronunciation and usage notes | Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary at OxfordLearnersDictionaries.com

Definition of Belarusian noun in Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary. Meaning, pronunciation, picture, example sentences, grammar, usage notes, synonyms and more.

www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com

Current situation is a quite different from previous elections in Belorussia. Seems this time not only usual pro-western/anti-russian nationalists mob are not happy with Lukashenko, now also conservative majority and pro-Russian flank are fed up with him. This election were a significant tensions with Russia (muted in western media for some reason). Seems even Russia is fed up with Lukashenko at this point.

Yes, Russia is upset for a reason, as Lukashenko was fooling Russia, promising her a further integration, but eventually he decided to stay independent. It was a great slap in Putin's face, as he could have been a Russian-Belarusian state's president, so he could have stayed in power without any tricks. However, it has not happened, so he had to resort to changing the Russian constitution in order to be allowed to stay in power for longer.

However, most Belorussians are very conservative and also fully aware how these regime changes ended, they for sure want not became their country a second Ukraine. Belorussia still very connected with Russia and pro-western\anti-Russian revolt will ended with worse economical collapse.

Agreed. They are less violent as well.

Police and army also will fight for their country (they want not Belorussia became failed state), not for Lukashenko. So i expect Lukashenko will remain in power, at least he survive this revolt.

Fight against whom? Ukraine's experience tells everybody the threat comes from the east rather that from the west.

The first world leader who congratulte Lukashenko was Xi Jinping, this is not an accident. Lukashenko search support to counter Russian influence and China never interfered internal affairs.

Agreed again. However, he's phucked now, as he won't be able to stay in power without Russia's help, so Putin won't have a different option but to bail him out. It's very unlikely that Belarusians would elect another pro-Russian president at the moment.
Speaking of China, Xi won't be able to disguise Chinese soldiers as Belarusian ones, while Putin will be able to send his cronies dressed in Belarusian uniforms.

 

[Musashi]

Why did people start hating Lukashenko?
The government had not introduced any COVID-19 restrictions for a very long time, as Lukashenko kept saying the virus doesn't exist. He kept laughing and taking the piss, while people were dying. He specifically targeted Russia, laughing at the Russian countermeasures and downplaying the threat. He didn't cancel the Victory Day celebrations in May just to piss off Putin. Eventually, he caught the virus himself. His ignorance was of the main reasons for the recent protests. Belarus is one of the worst covid-hit countries.

 

[berkut76]

what kind of help did Ukraine receive from Belarus in 2014 in order to stop the Russian invasion? Do you have any sources?

You can read this Russian article. Although, obviously politicized it hits the main points: Stab in the back how Belarus helps Ukraine fight in Donbas

First of all there were pre-existing arms production deals primarily in the area of ATGM already in place even before the war with Russia has started. These were not terminated because Lukashenko told Putin that Russia hasn't officially acknowledged its role in the war, hence no legal gorunds to suspend cooperation.

Early in the conflict it was fuel from Belarus that kept the Ukrainian war machine going. Tons of spare parts, especially tracks for BMP IFVs that Ukraine until very recently wasn't able to manufacture. Ukrainian MI-24s combat choppers were routinely repaired and upgraded in Belarus. All kinds of optics devices, ironically the same that Belarus was supplying to the Russian armed forces at the same time.

The most visible signs of cooperation are MAZ trucks built from kits in Ukraine. Actually a corruption deal as this was done to a detriment from the local Ukrainian manufacturers like Kraz.

The drivetrain for many of the newly designed Ukrainian armored vehicles that entered production came from Belarus and Chine via Belarus.

 

[morris]

Which is pretty stupid, as Poland would not be interested in using any force against Belarus. We used to be united for a few centuries, as the Grand Duchy of Lithuania had actually more to do with modern Belarus in terms of its language, religion and traditions. It has its army, budget and the parliament.
Speaking of the recent history, there was not any genocide on the Polish population in Belarus during the WW2. It happened so in Ukraine, so Polish people have more hard feelings towards the latter. As we managed to reconcile with Ukraine in a civilised way, nobody with a piece of a brain should suspect us of starting a military intervention in Belarus.

So current ultra nationalist government in Poland wants to return to good old days of GDL and Make Poland Great Again, but it is too scary to go into open confrontation against Russian army again so clandestine work using Lithuanian and Belarusian stooges is the order of the day. There is no surprise that so called Belarusian opposition information center "NEXTA", which provides all these horror videos and coordinate "spontaneous" protests and riots is located in Poland.

 

[Musashi]

So current ultra nationalist government in Poland wants to return to good old days of GDL and Make Poland Great Again, but it is too scary to go into open confrontation against Russian army again so clandestine work using Lithuanian and Belarusian stooges is the order of the day. There is no surprise that so called Belarusian opposition information center "NEXTA", which provides all these horror videos and coordinate "spontaneous" protests and riots is located in Poland.

I don't know what you are talking about. The so-called "ultra nationalist government" is not as nationalist as some idiots make you believe. It relies on giving out social handouts that are the biggest ones in Poland's history.
The idea about using Lithuanian stooges was probably taken out of your hat, as Lithuania is a fully independent country whose policy towards Russia is MUCH harsher than the Polish one. It's primarily Lithuania who kickstarts any random actions against Russia, but Poland is much bigger and populous, so the latter's actions are more visible. It was the current Lithuanian government who started pushing for improving relations with Poland, as they were rather bad between the times when Lithuania regained independence and 2015. The current Polish government started trolling the Lithuanians, telling them in a totally undiplomatic way that Lithuania needs Poland much more than Poland needs Lithuania and Poland can still be independent without an independent Lithuania, but it's not the case the way round. The Lithuanians got the message and started warming up relations with Poland immediately.
It was the Lithuanian Foreign Minister who referred to Lukashenko as the former Belarusian president right after the "elections", while no Polish politician has said so yet.
Regarding Poland's stance towards Belarus, you are just plainly wrong. It was the previous, so-called democratic Polish government who was much more active in supporting the democratic opposition in Belarus, while the current government has significantly reduced it. A few Belarusian pro-democratic activists have been arrested in the last couple of years in Poland and extradited to Belarus. Probably, it's something that you cannot read about in your country, but actions speak better than words. The opposition gave the Polish government a lot of sh1t due to such a behaviour, but the answer has always been the same: "we just follow international procedures and if somebody is accused of a fraud, we have to extradite them". Regarding "Nexta", its influence is pale comparing to what the previous government was doing in order to support the democratic opposition in Belarus. The current government totally changed the tactics and its stance was warming up relations with Lukashenko instead of giving him more sh1t, so a lot of projects aimed at supporting the opposition in Belarus have been cut or totally scrapped.
It has been working very well until now, as Lukashenko got the message and became bolder when it comes to dealing with Russia. He refused to open a few Russian military bases in Belarus, some of them close to the Polish border. Numerous times, Polish officials were the only EU officials who wanted to talk to him. There were a few commemorative events in Poland where he was invited, while Putin was ignored. He also proposed Poland and Ukraine to deepen the rivers between the Black Sea and western Belarus in order to become less dependent on Russia.
In other words, Putin's failure to incorporate Belarus has much to do with Polish diplomacy and good relations with Lukashenko that have just recently changed after the Polish government supported the Belarusian opposition officially.

Regarding Poland's nationalistic stance, again, you don't know what you are talking about. Polish government says something different purely for domestic purposes, but does something totally opposite. Let's say it refused to take 7000 Muslim refugees in 2015, making the "Muslim" the keyword, while 35,000-40,000+ Muslims have been getting a permanent residence in Poland every year since the current government came to power. The immigration from Muslim counties has never been so high, but they come to Poland legally. Poland issues more work visas than any EU country every year, so the number of foreigners from all over the world has increased significantly. There are about 2 millions Ukrainians living in Poland and a few hundred of thousands Belarusians. Some of them get grants from the government to get a higher education in Poland or are exempt from fees.

Regarding Ukraine, the current government is harsher towards it comparing to the previous one. A few Ukrainian politicians were banned from entering the EU after the Polish government discovered they supported UPA too much. When a Russian separatist from Donetsk opened a company in Poland and imported a sh1tload of coal, Ukraine started raising the issue to the Polish government. The latter said the guy is not on any sanction list and did not violate any Polish law, giving the Ukrainians a hint to fvck off.

Also, import of coal from Russia is at all times high, making Polish miners extremely upset.

So, it's not about making Poland great again, but to counter the Russian influence and having both Belarus and Ukraine as a buffer, exactly as they are now. Poland's goal is not to take these countries over or make them Polish colonies. Unlike Russia, Poland does not aim at taking these countries' industry or making them more dependent on Poland.
Poland just wants Belarus to be neutral, while Russia clearly pushes for taking it over. That's the key difference. It was Putin who proposed Luka to merge Belarus into Russia a make the latter a PM.

 

[Musashi]

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As I've mentioned, this statement is a success of Polish diplomacy, as EU officials initially refused to take any action due to being on a holiday in August, so they wanted to delay it till September.

 

[nemipuka_]

Leaked video from last week - the travelling сircus of Lukashenko's 80% making sure to remember their slogans until they make it to Minsk:

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[morris]

So, it's not about making Poland great again

So Poland will never be great again, which is good for Polish people because every time Polish politicians try it disaster is the result.

 

[morris]

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As I've mentioned, this statement is a success of Polish diplomacy, as EU officials initially refused to take any action due to being on a holiday in August, so they wanted to delay it till September.

How many times did Lukashenko visited the EU in the past?
So Sun comes up in the east and goes down in the west can be claimed as another "success of Polish diplomacy" for the same reason.

 

[morris]

Soros thugs continue to expand their harassment and intimidation.

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[berkut76]

Soros thugs continue to expand their harassment and intimidation.

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A handgun in Belarus? Give me an effing break. Typical false flag, and the way the cameras positioned in service truck. Once again, a horrible end is better than horrors without end.

On unrelated note, from reading Russian media. Once again loud pressure for Moscow to get rid of Lukashenko before "maydan" (that scary word) takes hold and rapid privatization of state owned assets in favor of Russian interests.

 

[berkut76]

Some recent photos. Please note, that this time demonstrators are factory workers and personnel as well as technical staff from Belarus TV stae networks.

The popular slogan of the striking workers "Our Salaries - Bullets for OMON" (i.e. riot police). I couldn't understand it, but as it was explained to me by the Russians, workers' salaries at the state owned enterprises even very successful export oriented ones are very low, but the salaries of riot police and security apparatus officers equal to those in Russia.

Factory managers, even "political offers" (yes, there are still such positions in Belarus") expressed support for the employees.

Demonstrators arrested earlier are being released under the public pressure.

"Truth"

Another thing that I found interesting that, although Belarussian language has been heavily discriminated against and is not really popular (state TV always boradcats in Russian), the demonstrators chant slogans in Belarussian language: "We Believe. We Can. We Win" «Верам! Можам! Переможам».

 

[morris]

Some recent photos.
"Truth"

Another thing that I found interesting that, although Belarussian language has been heavily discriminated against and is not really popular (state TV always boradcats in Russian), the demonstrators chant slogans in Belarussian language: "We Believe. We Can. We Win" «Верам! Можам! Переможам».

More paid performance from Soros clowns.

 

[morris]

Meantime Lukashenko spoke to the guys who were shouting in the crowd at the MZKT and they actually agree with what he said.

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[Musashi]

So Poland will never be great again, which is good for Polish people because every time Polish politicians try it disaster is the result.

Could you elaborate, as I cannot see anything more than trolling here?

More paid performance from Soros clowns.

Trolling at its best.
I've already explained to you why Luka became so unpopular, so I am not going to do it again.
Indeed, these demonstrations are spontaneous, as these people don't have a leader. It's not Ukraine where the opposition has always been very strong and vocal. Lukashenko has a custom of murdering, beating up and arresting anybody who poses some threat to him. The main opposition presidential candidate does not have any experience in politics, but people decided to support her despite that.
Soros can support an NGO with some resemblance of structures and leaders, but nothing like that is available in Belarus right now.
Luka is a light version of Kim, so your idea about paying Belarusians money is as strange as paying North Koreans money in order to organise protests against Un.
It's noticeable that even our Russian members have not gone so far with accusing protesters of getting money from Soros. They are simply clever enough to recognise that Belarus is not Ukraine and Luka made a sh1tload of fvckups to make the protests happen.
It has never happened before that the state TV workers did not come to work and the TV was broadcasting a video with an empty TV studio.
This Belarusian celebrity openly stated that the force used against the protesters was too excessive:

Darya Domracheva - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Who is she? A sportswoman who was extremely loyal to Luka. You could see her on Luka's side during different events and she had a custom of giving a sh1t to anybody who critcised Luka in the past. Don't be surprised that he referred to her behaviour as "backstabbing".