Politics Protests in Belarus
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Well if Lukashenko will bring out thugs who will try to intimidate the other side watch thing go into hyper mode. He is done. The question is how long this will take. Doubt that Russia will interfere to save his behind.
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Dance off. Anything is better than senseless violence if the long term outcome is pre-determined.
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Russia can (and must) replace Belorussian industrial export with domestic products. Like some MZKT heavy trucks were replaced with BAZ trucks in S-300/400 systems. Other example is KAMAZ trucks that quite popular today in Russia and some other countries, because significant modernization and cooperation with Daimler.
Me think Belorussian industry has two choices - became part of Russian industry (sold to Russian owners/holdings) and survive. Or just be scrapped like Ukrainian industry.
STOLYPIN: Moscow is not Minsk, but it is in its shadow
Can Lukashenko survive? While not impossible, it is looking increasingly unlikely. With the situation on the ground moving so quickly, though, I will ...
www.intellinews.com
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STOLYPIN: Moscow is not Minsk, but it is in its shadow
Can Lukashenko survive? While not impossible, it is looking increasingly unlikely. With the situation on the ground moving so quickly, though, I will ...
Truly excellent article. Thanks for posting it.
A knife at NATO’s throat: Why Belarus matters to the US
If Vladimir Putin gains de facto control of Belarus, he could put at serious risk NATO’s ability to defend its Baltic members.
thehill.com
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Lukashenko's 80%:
He dragged those people to support him in Minsk from all over Belarus:
Meanwhile in other parts of the city:
⬆ ⬆ ⬆
"Guys, who voted for Lukashenko?"
Laughing...
"And who voted for Tikhanovskaya?"
He dragged those people to support him in Minsk from all over Belarus:
Meanwhile in other parts of the city:
⬆ ⬆ ⬆
"Guys, who voted for Lukashenko?"
Laughing...
"And who voted for Tikhanovskaya?"
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Loosely translated the "airline ticket" reads. Luksahenko, we bought you a one way ticket to Hague.
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Right now Independence square is full of protesters again:
Luka should go out to make another speech.
So far Putin is pretending to be neutral, but the fall of Lukashenko would be bad for his regime as well. There won't be direct military intervention, but Kadyrov's thugs and cossack fanatics are always ready to jump in. After all, they've done it before. Rumours about Russian military trucks without insignia driving towards the border with Belarus are already circulating.
Luka should go out to make another speech.
So far Putin is pretending to be neutral, but the fall of Lukashenko would be bad for his regime as well. There won't be direct military intervention, but Kadyrov's thugs and cossack fanatics are always ready to jump in. After all, they've done it before. Rumours about Russian military trucks without insignia driving towards the border with Belarus are already circulating.
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Another brilliant move by Putin. Lukashenko has distanced himself from Moscow in recent years, and out of the blue for the first time in his reign there are mass protests and an organized viable opposition and the army, integrated into the Russian armed forces in all but name, refuses to do what it has done for decades; protect the regime. Leaving Lukashenko no other choice than to bow down to Putin. If it gets worse he'll have no other choice than to "invite" polite people to move into the country. Russia will not let this buffer state fall.
Putin plays grandmaster level chess while the EU thinks they're playing a game of checkers. All they've done is push the formerly semi-neutral Belarusian regime firmly into the arms of Russia. Retaining the status quo would have been better for everyone except Russia but of course realism doesn't exist in the fantasy world of Western politicians and diplomats. Nothing learned from Ukraine.
Putin plays grandmaster level chess while the EU thinks they're playing a game of checkers. All they've done is push the formerly semi-neutral Belarusian regime firmly into the arms of Russia. Retaining the status quo would have been better for everyone except Russia but of course realism doesn't exist in the fantasy world of Western politicians and diplomats. Nothing learned from Ukraine.
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I have to disagree. Putin has to tread very carefully. He is actually in position damn if you do, damn if you don't. His media has been anti-Lukashenko since at least Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. This went into overdrive since the Ukrainian adventure when Lukashenko covertly provided MASSIVE assistance (not free of charge, of course) to the state of Ukraine that helped to stall Russian invasion of another neighbor. Right now, Putin's best move is to quickly install at least in name "pro-Democracy" and "pro-Western" successor to Lukashenko. Backing the current leader is counterproductive. Also, one has to forget about swallowing Belarus as well. In short, like I've alluded earlier some sort of Armenian or Kyrguz scenario.
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I didn't say Lukashenko himself would survive this, I mean the pro-Russian regime not just surviving but being more closely controlled by Moscow than it has ever been since 1991. Whether Lukashenko himself signs off on this or some muppet appointed by the Kremlin is irrelevant.
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That I can agree on, but the West is moving much faster on this crisis than Kremlin at the moment. It looks like the successor has been picked already. Valery Tsepkalo intends to move to Poland
Actually Valery is already in Poland. To make matters worse for Russia, they have already opened a criminal case against Tesplkalo and requested that Interpol detain him. So, he had to spend 3 hours at a border crossing for diplomatic matters to be ironed out.
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It also looked like the West was victorious in Ukraine until the Russian military moved in out of the blue and separatist groups popped up out of nowhere. I suspect that is what the 32 Wagner mercs arrested earlier were there for. From what I've read the Belarusian KGB pressured various opposition candidates making them leave the country. So at least the security service is still loyal to the regime and I would suspect they would follow Russian orders without question. Backed up by non-Russian Russian troops and "retired" SVR/FSB/GRU operatives leading loyal parts of the Belarusian army that leaves rounding up dissenting soldiers (who conveniently posted themselves on social media) and opposition members and replacing them with more malleable ones.
Western options are always far more limited than the Russian ones. This is about as far as the West is willing to go while with Putin all options are open. Putin must also worry that one of the longest sitting autocrats in the Russian sphere of influence being toppled could be seen as an example for Russia.
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