Politics The COVID-19 pandemic news and discussion.

[drax]

Quite frankly, Sweden's initial restraint might've been born out of necessity. For some bizarre reason – which I'm yet to comprehend –, they have an only minuscule number of ICU beds.

In that case, wouldn't logic dictate that they would try to keep numbers as low as possible from the very start? Meaning quarantine, lockdown, the whole package?

 

[muck]

In that case, wouldn't logic dictate that they would try to keep numbers as low as possible from the very start? Meaning quarantine, lockdown, the whole package?

The strategy of everyone except Sweden – #flattenthecurve – has its own fundamental flaw: it delays the onset of herd immunity. The new coronavirus is now endemic in Europe. As soon as our restrictions are lifted, the number of confirmed cases will skyrocket again.

My reasoning was that maybe the Swedes came to realise that since they don't have enough ICU beds anyway, riding it all out and accelerating the onset of herd immunity could be the less painful way to do it.

Now that @Mordoror's filled us in, I'm actually more certain of it than I used to be. The stats to which he pointed us are very interesting; they're indeed a very healthy people. Perhaps their leaders figured that they could weather the storm with fewer dead than we'd suffer.

 

[Euroamerican]

The animals are reclaiming the streets.....It's clear now, the bats and pangolins led the way, now comes the main offensive.

Seen before on Imgur! Not sure if Covid-related, but still a good one!

 

[riderboy]

The strategy of everyone except Sweden – #flattenthecurve – has its own fundamental flaw: it delays the onset of herd immunity. The new coronavirus is now endemic in Europe. As soon as our restrictions are lifted, the number of confirmed cases will skyrocket again.

My reasoning was that maybe the Swedes came to realise that since they don't have enough ICU beds anyway, riding it all out and accelerating the onset of herd immunity could be the less painful way to do it.

Now that @Mordoror's filled us in, I'm actually more certain of it than I used to be. The stats to which he pointed us are very interesting; they're indeed a very healthy people. Perhaps their leaders figured that they could weather the storm with fewer dead than we'd suffer.

That may be the thinking that will lift some of the isolation and quarantine rules before we experience a total economic collapse. Except for the most at risk populations

 

[Mordoror]

The strategy of everyone except Sweden – #flattenthecurve – has its own fundamental flaw: it delays the onset of herd immunity. The new coronavirus is now endemic in Europe. As soon as our restrictions are lifted, the number of confirmed cases will skyrocket again.

My reasoning was that maybe the Swedes came to realise that since they don't have enough ICU beds anyway, riding it all out and accelerating the onset of herd immunity could be the less painful way to do it.

Now that @Mordoror's filled us in, I'm actually more certain of it than I used to be. The stats to which he pointed us are very interesting; they're indeed a very healthy people. Perhaps their leaders figured that they could weather the storm with fewer dead than we'd suffer.

Issue however is that when people will begin to drop like flies (because it will, the virus don't really care about the overall healthiness of the population, the 65-80y will always be 65-80y+) there will be a public pressure and they may very well end in hurry like everybody else but with a delay time (much like UK and -now-Netherlands- ended)
Herd immunity is OK if you are accepting the "casualties" and their social, political and mediatic impact.
But you point the main issue of the quarantine strategy: how will we de-quarantine ourselves
There are already dicussions here about th methodolgy. The most logical way would be to dequarantine those who already had the bug (confirmed by a serological test) and pray for a vaccine or at least a symptom reducing treatment for the others
Issue is that we dont know the sensitivity of the serological tests. That's the first point
But we dont know either the level and timelenght of protection offered by a primo-infection. And that is a big issue

Normal human coronaviruses offer only a 3 to 6 months immunity post infection
This one is a bit more harsh so we can hope for a longer protection but this is not granted
If it is 3 months, this would be a nightmare to manage

 

[Fluff]

That may be the thinking that will lift some of the isolation and quarantine rules before we experience a total economic collapse. Except for the most at risk populations

And the UK thought about 'herd immunity' and then flipped, at least publicly. Personally I think the virus had already spread much further, and for UK we have a 'slow herd immunity' policy in reality. Many people report having some bug, we wait for the test to tell us if we have had it....

 

[drax]

The downside of going for the herd immunity and counting the dead is the number of novel strains it produces, enabling the virus to do a comeback and making herd immunity only temporary. That said, afaik the new strains are smarter, i.e. less deadly.

 

[muck]

@muck
Pffffff
What the usual whiney lowlife author of the post you answered didn't checked is also that our ICU beds have been increased by by a large margin in the past 10 days by creating two lines one none COVID ICU (greatly reduced) and one COVID ICU by converting a maximum of rest/recovery/post surgery bed in reanimation ones
Increase in most hospitals ave gone to +50%, sometimes more
A few examples : Soisson 8 to 12 bed. Could go up to 15
Carcasonne 6 to 10 beds. Could go up to 12
Montpellier : 100 to 150 beds. Expected to be possible to go up to 200 beds

Issue is not the overall numbers of beds so far when you look the outbreak. Issue is the distribution of infected that is not equal on all the territory. Some very large clusters (Grand East, Paris-Ile de France) have the most important number of cases and are reaching saturation.
That's why there is a need to move the patients that can be moved

More to this point, we've been receiving new figures from the DKG, an association representing the hospitals of Germany. Their members have increased their capacities to 40,000 critical care beds, 30,000 of which equipped with medical ventilators. As of yesterday, 20,000 beds (15,000 with ventilator) were unoccupied. The DKG believes the system can handle doubling times of ≥10 days under the caveat that material and personnel shortages can be avoided. At current rates, the reserves would last another four weeks.

Some more noteworthy data:

• The good news first: The reproduction rate (the average number of people infected by a patient) in Germany has dropped from 4 to 1 since 22 March.
• Even against the backdrop of the relatively low median age of the German cases, ICUs have to admit an average 100 patients per day. Not included in this figure are about 15 patients a day evacuated from France, Italy and Spain.
• The DKG estimates that 30 ICU hospitalisations are necessary for every 1,000 cases (3.0%).
• As of 2 April 08:00, Germany reported 73,252 confirmed cases of Covid-19. The average patient was a 49-years-old male.
• As of the same date, 2,139 people were in intensive care in Germany, 1,797 (84%) of which required a respirator to survive.
• Additionally, Germany reported 872 deaths (1.19%). 82% of these patients had at least one pre-existing condition or were smokers. (So much to the bizarre lie found on the internet that German authorities wouldn't count cases with pre-existing conditions as deaths from Covid-19.) Diabetes was identified as the most common aggravating factor.
• 567 of those who passed away were male (65%), 304 were female (35%).
  • ≤59 years: 39 males, 9 females
  • 60-69 years: 53 males, 19 females
  • 70-79 years: 153 males, 47 females
  • 89-89 years: 270 males, 177 females
  • ≥90 years: 52 males, 51 females
  • The youngest victim was a 28-year-old male who'd suffered from leukaemia.

I'm really curious as to why men are consistently more at risk than women.

 

[Telmar]

Seen before on Imgur! Not sure if Covid-related, but still a good one!

I love how the attack is completely unprovoked.

 

[Gordus]

I'm really curious as to why men are consistently more at risk than women.

Well according to various articles, women produce stronger immune responses and are less likely to be hit criticaly or die. On the other hand, there are more women involved on the health and social care frontline so their numbers may actualy increase dramaticaly over time.

 

[Fluff]

More to this point, we've been receiving new figures from the DKG, an association representing the hospitals of Germany. Their members have increased their capacities to 40,000 critical care beds, 30,000 of which equipped with medical ventilators. As of yesterday, 20,000 beds (15,000 with ventilator) were unoccupied. The DKG believes the system can handle doubling times of ≥10 days under the caveat that material and personnel shortages can be avoided. At current rates, the reserves would last another four weeks.

Some more noteworthy data:

• The good news first: The reproduction rate (the average number of people infected by a patient) in Germany has dropped from 4 to 1 since 22 March.
• Even against the backdrop of the relatively low median age of the German cases, ICUs have to admit an average 100 patients per day. Not included in this figure are about 15 patients a day evacuated from France, Italy and Spain.
• The DKG estimates that 30 ICU hospitalisations are necessary for every 1,000 cases (3.0%).
• As of 2 April 08:00, Germany reported 73,252 confirmed cases of Covid-19. The average patient was a 49-years-old male.
• As of the same date, 2,139 people were in intensive care in Germany, 1,797 (84%) of which required a respirator to survive.
• Additionally, Germany reported 872 deaths (1.19%). 82% of these patients had at least one pre-existing condition or were smokers. (So much to the bizarre lie found on the internet that German authorities wouldn't count cases with pre-existing conditions as deaths from Covid-19.) Diabetes was identified as the most common aggravating factor.
• 567 of those who passed away were male (65%), 304 were female (35%).
  • ≤59 years: 39 males, 9 females
  • 60-69 years: 53 males, 19 females
  • 70-79 years: 153 males, 47 females
  • 89-89 years: 270 males, 177 females
  • ≥90 years: 52 males, 51 females
  • The youngest victim was a 28-year-old male who'd suffered from leukaemia.

I'm really curious as to why men are consistently more at risk than women.

this may indicate

 

[primer]

Thank god for modern science. Each day a new groundbreaking invention gets unleashed on this virus. The 100.000 in a day test machine, patch with sugar and protein needles for immunity, inhaler that increases the chemical in the lung responsible for inhibiting the virus.

Lets just hope the politicians and bureaucrats get out of the way.

 

[Fluff]

More to this point, we've been receiving new figures from the DKG, an association representing the hospitals of Germany. Their members have increased their capacities to 40,000 critical care beds, 30,000 of which equipped with medical ventilators. As of yesterday, 20,000 beds (15,000 with ventilator) were unoccupied. The DKG believes the system can handle doubling times of ≥10 days under the caveat that material and personnel shortages can be avoided. At current rates, the reserves would last another four weeks.

Some more noteworthy data:

• The good news first: The reproduction rate (the average number of people infected by a patient) in Germany has dropped from 4 to 1 since 22 March.
• Even against the backdrop of the relatively low median age of the German cases, ICUs have to admit an average 100 patients per day. Not included in this figure are about 15 patients a day evacuated from France, Italy and Spain.
• The DKG estimates that 30 ICU hospitalisations are necessary for every 1,000 cases (3.0%).
• As of 2 April 08:00, Germany reported 73,252 confirmed cases of Covid-19. The average patient was a 49-years-old male.
• As of the same date, 2,139 people were in intensive care in Germany, 1,797 (84%) of which required a respirator to survive.
• Additionally, Germany reported 872 deaths (1.19%). 82% of these patients had at least one pre-existing condition or were smokers. (So much to the bizarre lie found on the internet that German authorities wouldn't count cases with pre-existing conditions as deaths from Covid-19.) Diabetes was identified as the most common aggravating factor.
• 567 of those who passed away were male (65%), 304 were female (35%).
  • ≤59 years: 39 males, 9 females
  • 60-69 years: 53 males, 19 females
  • 70-79 years: 153 males, 47 females
  • 89-89 years: 270 males, 177 females
  • ≥90 years: 52 males, 51 females
  • The youngest victim was a 28-year-old male who'd suffered from leukaemia.

I'm really curious as to why men are consistently more at risk than women.

@muck

Interesting report, thanks for posting.

The one thing the high number of tests in Germany gives us, is confidence in that 3% figure. I wonder what the survival % is if serious, when you have diabetes and smoke. also noting the mix comes back to 50/50 for the 90+ group, and is progressively increasing below this age.

 

[Mordoror]

this may indicate

This may be that but not only
Wouldn't be the first transmissible disease where males are more suceptible (aside socioeconomic situation) than women
Something linked to genetical protection of the future of the specie
Beside that, some blood groups seem also more susceptible than other (O seems a bit more protective)
Which was also described in other infectious diseases

Some Blood Types May Be Slightly More Susceptible to COVID-19, Paper Suggests

There's a new bit of information about COVID-19 you may have heard.

www.sciencealert.com

(beware, the bacth analysed is small)

Individual genetic pattern may play a role too but it is unclear how
Finally there are plenty of others factors that make the correlations difficult to conclude on (virus concentration intake, time of contact, strain ? previous viral infection, fragility of the lungs etc etc )

 

[Fluff]

This may be that but not only
Wouldn't be the first transmissible disease where males are more suceptible (aside socioeconomic situation) than women
Something linked to genetical protection of the future of the specie
Beside that, some blood groups seem also more susceptible than other (O seems a bit more protective)
Which was also described in other infectious diseases

Some Blood Types May Be Slightly More Susceptible to COVID-19, Paper Suggests

There's a new bit of information about COVID-19 you may have heard.

www.sciencealert.com

(beware, the bacth analysed is small)

Individual genetic pattern may play a role too but it is unclear how
Finally there are plenty of others factors that make the correlations difficult to conclude on (virus concentration intake, time of contact, strain ? previous viral infection, fragility of the lungs etc etc )

Of course, many factors, the blood group is interesting, and good news for me! I guess the eggheads will be studying this for years.

 

[primer]

Apparently Mexico 130 million has 10% with diabetes and second for obesity. That has to be a bad prognosis there. Hope the heat knocks it back but their history with epidemic infections is not good.

 

[Mordoror]

Ah
Well, Uncle Sam at it again (but of course it comes from an anti american poster, in instance me)

USA haben wohl 200.000 Schutzmasken abgefangen: Berlins Innensenator spricht von „moderner Piraterie“

Wegen des Coronavirus bestellte Schutzausrüstung für Berliner Polizisten soll aus China in die USA umgeleitet worden sein. Das Weiße Haus dementiert.

www.tagesspiegel.de

Or in other words, 200 000 masks for the Berlin Police never reached their destination and have been hijacked (pirate is the word used in the article) by the americans

 

[primer]

The Americans complain they aren't getting them. The health chief from Florida had a spat on twitter with 3M. It's their agents who are in control so unless the German order was for 3M contraband knockoffs that is where the issue lies with the non aligned agents.
Apparently our 95 masks of sheeps wool production could cover us ok but we still have a shortage...lots of overseas demand prioritized. Off course as with stopping the airlines at the start of this mess nothing much gets in the way of old fashioned commence. Govt commandeering has been slow.
Though Germany has been proactive in this area and of course complained about Trumps wooing of that German pharmaceutical company..

We have F&P Healthcare. Makes a world class ventilator. Govt hasn't even inquired to buy some.

 

[primer]

BBC story covers shotages of farm harvesters and the need for unskilled foreigner back packers to harvest. We could all starve argument..So apparently the increasing domestic unemployed are once again incapable even in dire emergency.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Despite the whole lock-down and confinement thing... well Parisians are still leaving the city in drove for Easter Holidays.

Coronavirus : des ralentissements en Ile-de-France à cause des barrages filtrants - ici

Alors que les vacances scolaires commencent ce vendredi soir en Île-de-France, plusieurs ralentissements se sont formées sur le périphérique parisien et à proximité des autoroutes, malgré l'appel des autorités à rester chez soi. Des ralentissements provoqués par les contrôles des forces de l'ordre.

www.francebleu.fr

Let's not forget that, last January, Xi Jinping made the decision to let around 5mil people leave the epicenter of the virus without being screened.