Japan for decades has controlled the Senkakus, a group of uninhabited islands west of Okinawa in the East China Sea.
China also claims the islands, just as it claims many of the most resource-rich features in the East and South China Seas.
But while China under President Xi Jinping has backed up its claims with forceful land grabs in the Paracel and Spratly island groups in the South China Sea—Beijing has built
27 outposts on those island groups—it
hasn’t tried to seize the Senkakus.
It’s not hard to see why. With the strong backing of the United States, Japan has built up its forces around the Senkakus. And successive Japanese administrations have made it clear that if China moves on the Senkakus, Japan will push back.
Japan has administered the Senkakus for more than a century. Chinese officials meanwhile claim the islands always have been Chinese. But it wasn’t until 2010 that Beijing tried to put any force behind its claim. In September of that year, a Chinese trawler—likely under control of Beijing’s powerful maritime militia—rammed two Japanese coast guard patrol boats.
Everything changed after the ramming. Since then, Chinese “gray zone” militia boats regularly have appeared around the Senkakus.
Emphasis on
regularly. Three times a month like clockwork, four Chinese boats spend two hours in Japanese waters around the island group—a reminder of Beijing’s claim over the islands and, if history is a guide, the vanguard of some possible future Chinese landing on the Senkakus. When Beijing moves to seize some disputed island, militia boats usually arrive first.
Where other Chinese land grabs encountered little or no resistance, Japan swiftly has moved to shore up its defenses around the Senkakus. More ships. More planes. More surveillance. And realistic plans for retaking the island group in the event Chinese forces occupy it.
Moreover, Tokyo matches its rhetoric to its security posture. “Japan will respond effectively and promptly to gray-zone situations or any other acts that may violate its sovereignty,” Japan’s 2013 National Defense Program Guidelines states. “Furthermore, should the acts in question become protracted or escalate, Japan will respond seamlessly as the situation evolves, taking all possible measures for the defense and security of the sea and air space surrounding Japan.”
The Japanese coast guard is in charge of security around the Senkakus. The JCG’s policy is to respond to every incursion by a Chinese boat with a vessel of its own. The coast guard vessels monitor, warn and maneuver close to Beijing’s boats. This sends a signal and complicates Chinese operations around the islands.
To sustain its response, the coast guard is getting more and bigger vessels. The service’s fleet this year is expanding to 144 large patrol ships, 62 of which are capable of long-range operations around the Senkakus. “These capabilities are currently sufficient for the JCG to maintain a 24-hour presence around the Senkaku Islands to automatically respond to any intrusions,” RAND concluded.
China is serious about its claim on the Senkakus. But Japan might be even more serious about its own administration of the islands.
More importantly, Tokyo backs up its administration with serious military capabilities, a real plan and clear messaging. “There is evidence that this approach is working,” RAND noted.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...f-ships-and-americas-backing/?sh=464bf5083edd