I‘m a fan of National Interest, but I have to say It is a superficial puff piece with zero depth.
During the Cold War the Soviets never surpassed 60% of US GNP equivalency.
And in the 1980’s the Soviets got smashed proper by the Oil Glut(just as Putin’s Russia is being smashed by the oil glut today).
The Chinese economic engine is a far more serious threat that the Soviet Economy ever represented.
The Soviets never had One Belt, One Road(dwarfing Marshall Plan in inflation adjusted current dollars) nor BATH(Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei).
This isn’t just about conventional military domains, it also includes digital, economic, and political.
Thsi is a difficult Topic. To measure the real strength of a countries economy not only the pure numbers count. In the case of China I even have my doubts in those numbers as you can see with for example ICBC being involved in money laundering. I also think that corruption doesn´t help either in getting rid of such problems. You can try to trick the outside world for sure but it will not solve your structural problems.
They are playing a catch up game and trying to "buy" or copy technology wherever they can with massive state subsidies. I´m not sure if this will lead to the desired outcome.
I know a company that was bought by a Chinese state enterprise. They just leech all data set up Chinese CEO CFOs etc. which have no clue and have to have advisors to explain them what to do. Oftenly they also alienate the employees having the expertise as they do not want to simply be technology transfer vehicles and spending all their time teaching Chinese employees. The job market in the west oftenly still offers ample opportunities for them.
And slowly companies and employees begin to realize and accept this scheme as a reality. Not being too fond of always accepting the "money" and shutting up.
Another more vital point is that for a true economical superpower much is missing. Just take a look at the recent example of ARM and Huawei.
Lots of basic research and devlopment is still missing. And you can´t buy that, you have to do it yourself otherwise you will always be lagging behind and are prone to being cut off of it.
There is much western tech China depends on but I don´t know of much Chinese tech the West is dependent on.
Sure they can then illegally copy everything but thats onyl worsening it and no substantial solution.
Another example are the patents on 5G you Always read China has teh most but which are important and useful and actually used?
Most Chines 5G patents are also not registered internationally and even if, all other non Chines companies still account for the majority.
The results show that only just over 73% of the 5G families declared by Chinese companies have been filed internationally and only around 25% have already been granted by at least one patent office. This means that Chinese companies have by far the lowest grant rate and do not register as internationally as Koreans, Europeans, Americans or Japanese. European companies have the highest grant rate with just over 66%, followed by Korean companies with over 62% and Japanese companies with over 50%.
Globally, 95,526 5G declarations patents have been declared for 5G which breaks down to 21,571 unique patent families as of January 1st, 2020 and only 44% of these patent families have yet been grante
www.digianalysys.com
So my humble conclusion is they (still) can´t take on the World and I am not sure that this system is any more viable than the Soviet one was. Different yes, better adapted yes - but with inherent structural shortcomings.
nationalinterest.org
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