Politics South China Sea Thread

[surfpunk]

The popular Chinese magazine on the naval theme together with the animation studio Jiayou Shenzhu prepared the video entitled "Demonstration of a joint fire strike on Taiwan" in honor of the Day of the People's Liberation Army of China.
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at this point IMO they have nothing to lose from such a conflict. best case, they bring Taiwan back into the cold hard embrace of mother China, worst case, they get valuable data on every single aspect of their military doctrine and foreign policy.
The knowledge they will gain about their weapons systems, logistics, global response to their actions, it seems like it would be a win-win for them regardless of whether or not the short term aims are achieved.
On the other hand, maybe realistically they have no idea on how brutal and bloody a conflict will be, that its not all stirring images of rockets being launched and heroic troops dashing into the fray.
Sometimes, the Chinese IMO seem to have a sort of romanticized vision of combat that's extremely sanitized. It may well a hard lesson for them, possibly one from which brings about a changing of their ruling order?

 

[Ivan le Fou]

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1020866539/japans-position-on-defending-taiwan-has-taken-a-remarkable-shift

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Germany Sends Warship to South China Sea

Germany is the latest country to enter the disputed waters that China claims as its own.

www.newsweek.com

The frigate warship known as the Bayern (Bavaria), departed the German naval base of Wilhelmshaven on Monday during a ceremony attended by the country's defense secretary, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

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[morris]

In response to the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group of NATO ships led by the British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08) in the South China Sea, China's Maritime Security Administration closed part of the South China Sea for PLA naval exercises. The restrictions are in effect from 00-00 o'clock on August 6 to 24-00 o'clock on August 10, 2021. A section of the water area from the southeastern coast of Hainan Island to the Paracel Islands fell under the ban.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Taipei’s growing legion of friends

There’s serious regional clout behind Taiwan’s goal of peace and stability.

www.lowyinstitute.org

 

[Hiryu2.0]

https://project2049.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Chinas-Top-Five-War-Plans_Ian_Easton_Project2049.pdf

 

[Fluff]

at this point IMO they have nothing to lose from such a conflict. best case, they bring Taiwan back into the cold hard embrace of mother China, worst case, they get valuable data on every single aspect of their military doctrine and foreign policy.
The knowledge they will gain about their weapons systems, logistics, global response to their actions, it seems like it would be a win-win for them regardless of whether or not the short term aims are achieved.
On the other hand, maybe realistically they have no idea on how brutal and bloody a conflict will be, that its not all stirring images of rockets being launched and heroic troops dashing into the fray.
Sometimes, the Chinese IMO seem to have a sort of romanticized vision of combat that's extremely sanitized. It may well a hard lesson for them, possibly one from which brings about a changing of their ruling order?

And that would be the problem for them.

Could be:

A walk in the park, the taiwanese collapse and embrace mother China - great success for the leadership

Could be:

China has no-idea how to fight a real war, and 200K chinese troops drown in the straits - not a good result for the leadership.

if your in that leadership seat, probably best to keep drinking the whisky and write a few more statements about the inevitable outcome - i.e. when someone else is in the hot seat.

 

[Chazman]

People seem to think that taking Taiwan would be a cake walk for the CCP. It wouldn't. The loss of ships, aircraft and personnel would be massive. The campaign would take a long time. Years. And if the US and allies join in, it's WWIII.

Did I mention that the CCP economy would collapse in short order if the US and the West stopped pumping money into it? A total, monetary and economic collapse.

 

[Fluff]

People seem to think that taking Taiwan would be a cake walk for the CCP. It wouldn't. The loss of ships, aircraft and personnel would be massive. The campaign would take a long time. Years. And if the US and allies join in, it's WWIII.

Did I mention that the CCP economy would collapse in short order if the US and the West stopped pumping money into it? A total, monetary and economic collapse.

So really we are all locked together, minor stuff can happen, via proxies, but nukes etc should make all out WW3 not a good idea.

Unfortunately this doesnt mean it wont happen.......

 

[Junglejim]

When you spend all that money on ships and soldiers, sooner or later you will have to justify their existence to the population.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

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[surfpunk]

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wow. the reasoning in this article is basically the logic of a psychopath.
I wonder if has ever occurred to our foreign policy hacks that it might be better to have Russia as a friend and ally in some capacity, rather than push her further and further away.

 

[Fluff]

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$10 million for the pilot that lands his J-20 in Taiwan.....Capitalism always wins my friends!

 

[droopy]

Landing ? i think they must have some self destruct gadget like in Mission Impossible.

 

[Junglejim]

$10 million to get a tech that they stole from you so you probably know it already? Thats why China is beating you in capitalism haha

 

[morris]

$10 million to get a tech that they stole from you so you probably know it already? Thats why China is beating you in capitalism haha

There still will be some sensitive information like communication codes , etc..

 

[Chazman]

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[Chazman]

Also hope someone captured some good ELINT on the J-20.

 

[morris]

"Weird that you're dropping news about flying jets over your "own" territory. Ready to admit that Taiwan is a completely separate country yet or are we going to continue this farce?"

This is reminiscent of Ukraine and separated republics in the east.

 

[Fluff]

The trouble is neither side actually knows what would happen....

Would the Nationalists not fire on the mainlanders?

Would the mainlanders not fire on the nationalists, and just troop ashore, to go and get a job in the local chip factory, to send 30K a year home?

Again, would Taiwan offer 50K and a house to every unarmed arrival?

Would we get a peaceful 'reunion' but then the nationalists do a reverse takeover of the CCP, and end up in charge of all of china.

Better to get more trade, and agree a joint Olympic team, and let it run for another 50 years.

CCP is a 'closed shop' in union speak, why would you want to let another bunch of politicians in to mess it all up....