Politics South China Sea Thread

[primer]

Be entirely embarrassing, chinese killing each other. Total rejection of nazi system by the world.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Fars | فارس

Fars

www.farsnews.ir

 

[Fluff]

Fars | فارس

Fars

www.farsnews.ir

Of course, says nice ol Uncle Joe.....

 

[Junglejim]

Well if they are gonna make a push, then now would be it due to Americas war exhaustion from Afghanistan. Morally and Financially speaking... forgetting war is like crack to America lol.

 

[Picanha]

Oh noes the nice and friendly German frigate "Bayern" is not allowed to make a port call in China.

China rejected it. Even though they meticulously selected their route to not anger anyone.

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But Armin Laschet is already warning against a cold war with China (as a gift for nice vice versa treatment by the CCP). He adds: "But we will always critize China." Yeah then if you have no real action possibilities critizising must do the trick...

So Laschets modus operandi is the same as Merkels. Be a spineless opportunist.

This shows how incompetetent on a global scale our "locals" are. Why apply for a port call anyway? Just to get humiliated? They really live in fairy land...

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Hong Kong orders Tiananmen vigil group to delete websites – DW – 09/16/2021

Organizers of the annual vigil say national security police ordered them to delete their online presence. Beijing is increasingly cracking down on dissenting social media accounts in Hong Kong.

www.dw.com

 

[morris]

The first photographs of the PLA Air Force Xian Y-20 military transport aircraft at the Yongshu (Fire Cross) artificial reef in disputed territories in the South China Sea


Photographs of this artificial island 6 years apart, 2014 and 2020. Runways, hangars for aviation equipment, radar and satellite communications stations, underground ammunition storage facilities, barracks, etc. have been built on the reef. The area on which the work was carried out was 110 thousand square meters.

It has shape of an aircraft carrier or is it my imagination?

 

[surfpunk]

The first photographs of the PLA Air Force Xian Y-20 military transport aircraft at the Yongshu (Fire Cross) artificial reef in disputed territories in the South China Sea
View attachment 336837View attachment 336836

Photographs of this artificial island 6 years apart, 2014 and 2020. Runways, hangars for aviation equipment, radar and satellite communications stations, underground ammunition storage facilities, barracks, etc. have been built on the reef. The area on which the work was carried out was 110 thousand square meters.
View attachment 336835
View attachment 336834
It has shape of an aircraft carrier or is it my imagination?

so the reports someone posted some months ago that the islands were sinking and would have to be abandoned appear to be false...
regardless, I see some potential here, lots of fetch, nice reef pass here, probably fires on some typhoon swell

 

[Ivan le Fou]

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[Ivan le Fou]

24 Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwans ADIZ after CPTPP bid | Taiwan News | Sep. 23, 2021 21:10

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Chazman]

24 Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwans ADIZ after CPTPP bid | Taiwan News | Sep. 23, 2021 21:10

www.taiwannews.com.tw

This is all about intimidation. The CCP knows they cannot take Taiwan without extraordinary cost. But if they can scare the Taiwanese people.....

Sooner or later one of those Chicom copied engines will have a catastrophic failure if they keep using those J-16s.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

This is all about intimidation. The CCP knows they cannot take Taiwan without extraordinary cost. But if they can scare the Taiwanese people.....

Sooner or later one of those Chicom copied engines will have a catastrophic failure if they keep using those J-16s.

Or a "Turkish F16 shooting down a Russian Su24 for violating its airspace" kind of scenario.

Though Taiwanese seem to be level headed enough to not pull the trigger easily, on the other hand China is known to go full r-tard when it comes to provocation and provocative moves.

 

[Chazman]

Or a "Turkish F16 shooting down a Russian Su24 for violating its airspace" kind of scenario.

Though Taiwanese seem to be level headed enough to not pull the trigger easily, on the other hand China is known to go full r-tard when it comes to provocation and provocative moves.

Or that.

CCP likes to bark, but can they take being bitten?

 

[Ivan le Fou]

S. Korea, Vietnam agree in summit to deepen their strategic ties | Yonhap News Agency

By Lee Chi-dong NEW YORK, Sept. 21 (Yonhap) -- The leaders of South Korea and Vietnam ag...

en.yna.co.kr

 

[Flagg]

Well if they are gonna make a push, then now would be it due to Americas war exhaustion from Afghanistan. Morally and Financially speaking... forgetting war is like crack to America lol.

Best to save the “Get Out Of Jail Free Card” for when it’s most needed.

An argument could be made that the US is war weary and distracted now.

But a stronger argument could be made that Xi/CCP/PLA may require a convenient distraction away from a domestic Chinese crisis later.

Later may be now, or soon.

The Evergrande debt crisis may be that now, soon, or later.

While Evergrande is unlikely to spill out and cascade into a global economic/financial threat, it doesn’t have to.

Evergrande just needs to create enough pain for enough Chinese for Xi/CCP/PLA to perceive it to be necessary to create an external distraction to activate latent Chinese nationalism.

A Chinese hybrid Grenada/Falklands scenario.

A guaranteed successful result to send a message to the world(Grenada) while distracting the domestic populace from a growing economic/financial crisis thru the activation of nationalism(Falklands).

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Vietnam slams illegal aircraft landings on Spratly Islands - VnExpress International

Vietnam expressed strong opposition Thursday to China illegally landing its aircraft on Vietnam’s Truong Sa (Spratly) Archipelago as a violation of its sovereignty.

e.vnexpress.net

 

[Junglejim]

Best to save the “Get Out Of Jail Free Card” for when it’s most needed.

An argument could be made that the US is war weary and distracted now.

But a stronger argument could be made that Xi/CCP/PLA may require a convenient distraction away from a domestic Chinese crisis later.

Later may be now, or soon.

The Evergrande debt crisis may be that now, soon, or later.

While Evergrande is unlikely to spill out and cascade into a global economic/financial threat, it doesn’t have to.

Evergrande just needs to create enough pain for enough Chinese for Xi/CCP/PLA to perceive it to be necessary to create an external distraction to activate latent Chinese nationalism.

A Chinese hybrid Grenada/Falklands scenario.

A guaranteed successful result to send a message to the world(Grenada) while distracting the domestic populace from a growing economic/financial crisis thru the activation of nationalism(Falklands).

I agree and they can be looking at the SCS more than Taiwan, a quicker victory without consequences much if they hit one of the ASEAN states. It could be Vietnam as the Philippines is not playing along to give them a "casus belli." Everytime they do something the Philippine government just has a mild reaction to the point it is being viewed as a Chinese puppet by the population.

Its either the Philippine admin is spineless or master statemen

 

[Flagg]

I agree and they can be looking at the SCS more than Taiwan, a quicker victory without consequences much if they hit one of the ASEAN states. It could be Vietnam as the Philippines is not playing along to give them a "casus belli." Everytime they do something the Philippine government just has a mild reaction to the point it is being viewed as a Chinese puppet by the population.

Its either the Philippine admin is spineless or master statemen

Completely agree.

Going after Taiwan kinetically would be biting off more than China can chew at the moment.

Going after South China Sea EEZ would be a far more likely and successful opportunity.

It would achieve the domestic nationalism win, signal the region and globe that “it’s morning in China” with Xi as the Chinese Reagan, and it would be acceptable-ish to the global community.

 

[Junglejim]

It really has two choices Vietnam or the Philippines. One is arming up that it has a potential to embarass China, but can be taken on. The other has virtually no defensive capability but might cause the US to get involved in. If they attack the Philippines they can gauge lightly how the US will react if it pushes for Taiwan.

 

[Flagg]

It really has two choices Vietnam or the Philippines. One is arming up that it has a potential to embarass China, but can be taken on. The other has virtually no defensive capability but might cause the US to get involved in. If they attack the Philippines they can gauge lightly how the US will react if it pushes for Taiwan.

Yup.

One of the seperate but related items to the USAUK nuclear sub alliance is that India has been providing training for Vietnam’s Kilo class sub crews……..for a decade.

The depth and breadth of India-Vietnam bilateral military support would be super interesting to know.

A rational Philippine gov’t and a rational US gov’t are natural allies despite a rocky past.

The culture and people of both countries also represent a natural partnership due to the long history and above average common ground,

US and Vietnam also have promise as natural friends, if not allies, with some horrible history that both sides know could have and should have been avoided.

The real interesting questions are how bilateral partnerships evolve between Vietnam-Japan and Philippines-Japan.

Those are potentially very important.

Im left thinking of a contradiction: a loose alliance of non-aligned nations such as India, Vietnam, Philippines and perhaps Malaysia and/or Indonesia.

It could be called “the countries afraid of China but are afraid of officially joining an afraid of China alliance“

Cambodia and increasingly Thailand appear to be falling within China’s orbit.

South Korea appears to be tooling up but keeping its mouth shut to avoid China influencing North Korea the wrong way.

A move that displays rapid persistent dominance of the South China Sea that sees one or more regional nations receive a small bloody nose and a big hit to ego(submission) is what I think will inevitably happen.