International investment firms have changed their China GDP forecasts nearly every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January.
www.cnbc.com
Researchers have sought alternatives to gauge growth.
One organization is the U.S.-based China Beige Book, which claims to regularly survey businesses in China in order to put out reports on the economic environment.
Earlier this year, the firm's data "showed there was no revenge spending wave or a bombastic recovery," said Shehzad Qazi, New York-based managing director at China Beige Book.
"Wall Street's predictions of blockbuster growth in China were first based on hype, and then juiced up by China's inflated GDP prints into early 2023."
The resulting low figure helps Beijing make a case for supporting the economy, the analysts said in a July 17 report. "Understand what you are seeing in this year's GDP data: these are artificially constructed narratives for various audiences, not reports on China's economic performance."
Investment bank research is often known as
the "sell-side," since it is meant to inform buyers about financial products and company stocks.
In the case of China, Qazi pointed out that "investment banks are not only incentivized to sell a 'China booming' story, but given their business interests in China, they are also unwilling to publish any views that can be seen as critical of China's economy."