So, now that Nancy left Taiwan after doing whatever she went there for (which might not have been "that important" considering how brief her stay in Taiwan was) the live-fire military exercises announced by Chinese state media will carry on. Gravely and unambiguously escalatory and dangerous steps. Or maybe that's ballsy...?
If they take place as announced, they will reach quite significantly into Taiwan's internal waters (which is about 10 or 12 ni from the shores) and clearly disregard Taiwan's territorial waters.
Well, China drew the lines. Will they be crossed is left to be seen, but China has done worst in the past.
These are the most provocative moves by China in decades and would meet the UN's definition of "state aggression", though Taiwan isn't part of the UN, but the definition is pretty much, let's say, "agnostic" or "blind" as to whom it may apply.
Anyway, "ballsy Pelosi" went for her trip, landed in Taiwan despite the US military and her advisors telling her not to. Maybe a political move to boost the votes prior to the midterms "oh hey! look! we are tough on China! we got told not to go and we went anyway!" *jingle keys*.
Thing is, it seems Pelosi thought it was 1996 all over again. With the difference that back in 1996 China had no concerning AShM capabilities, they reportedly do now. Back in 1966 China's nuclear capabilities were, let's say, cute; not so much as of today. (27 years of uninterrupted military spending at an estimated US$297/y)
So yeah, "ballsy Nancy" showed the US playbook, while the US does not know what the Chinese's is. The Dems set the bar on a trajectory no prior administration ever dared. One thing is clear though, it stocked up Chinese nationalism to the point of breaking government-run social media, and even some prominent Chinese communist leaders/activists got arrested for getting too hyped (calling for protesting to push the Chinese gov to go on with the "One China" thing).
It's also an election year in China and Xi is seeking to remain in power for life. Which means he is going to have to woo the nationalists and get their support.
Ballsy, demented and alcoholic, Nancy contributed in setting a stage for a mistake to happen and escalate out of control.
Hypothesis: if China does invade Taiwan (after all Russia did invade Ukraine, why China wouldn't do the same). What is the US going to do about it?
8000 miles away? Well, there are three Battle groups in the area, so there is that.
