Politics China/Taiwan Crisis

[Chazman]

So, now that Nancy left Taiwan after doing whatever she went there for (which might not have been "that important" considering how brief her stay in Taiwan was) the live-fire military exercises announced by Chinese state media will carry on. Gravely and unambiguously escalatory and dangerous steps. Or maybe that's ballsy...?

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If they take place as announced, they will reach quite significantly into Taiwan's internal waters (which is about 10 or 12 ni from the shores) and clearly disregard Taiwan's territorial waters.

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Well, China drew the lines. Will they be crossed is left to be seen, but China has done worst in the past.

These are the most provocative moves by China in decades and would meet the UN's definition of "state aggression", though Taiwan isn't part of the UN, but the definition is pretty much, let's say, "agnostic" or "blind" as to whom it may apply.

Anyway, "ballsy Pelosi" went for her trip, landed in Taiwan despite the US military and her advisors telling her not to. Maybe a political move to boost the votes prior to the midterms "oh hey! look! we are tough on China! we got told not to go and we went anyway!" *jingle keys*.
Thing is, it seems Pelosi thought it was 1996 all over again. With the difference that back in 1996 China had no concerning AShM capabilities, they reportedly do now. Back in 1966 China's nuclear capabilities were, let's say, cute; not so much as of today. (27 years of uninterrupted military spending at an estimated US$297/y)

So yeah, "ballsy Nancy" showed the US playbook, while the US does not know what the Chinese's is. The Dems set the bar on a trajectory no prior administration ever dared. One thing is clear though, it stocked up Chinese nationalism to the point of breaking government-run social media, and even some prominent Chinese communist leaders/activists got arrested for getting too hyped (calling for protesting to push the Chinese gov to go on with the "One China" thing).
It's also an election year in China and Xi is seeking to remain in power for life. Which means he is going to have to woo the nationalists and get their support.

Ballsy, demented and alcoholic, Nancy contributed in setting a stage for a mistake to happen and escalate out of control.

Hypothesis: if China does invade Taiwan (after all Russia did invade Ukraine, why China wouldn't do the same). What is the US going to do about it?
8000 miles away? Well, there are three Battle groups in the area, so there is that.

This will be a magnificent opportunity for the West to observe how China does operations. Thank you CCP.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

This will be a magnificent opportunity for the West to observe how China does operations. Thank you CCP.

There is that, yes.

Though, when it comes to bloopers, the navy may not provide as many material as the "regular ground forces".

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*but Pelosi is ballsy...*

 

[Junglejim]

Love how the media and the internet is trying to sell this as a crisis. No rockets are over Taiwan

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Plus the fact that all I have to do is ask my friends flying in Taiwan "you guys dead yet?"
So far the answer is "nope, about to get a sun stroke from playing golf though"

 

[Jake84]

Love how the media and the internet is trying to sell this as a crisis. No rockets are over Taiwan

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Plus the fact that all I have to do is ask my friends flying in Taiwan "you guys dead yet?"
So far the answer is "nope, about to get a sun stroke from playing golf though"

Hey JJ. Quick question: what’s the Philippines stance about the whole issue, crisis or whatever you’d call it?

Correct me if I’m wrong but I’ve always been under the impression that you guys are rather aligned with the US and China/the CCP have been dicks to you and many others in the region.

If you can sum it up in a couple of sentences and paragraphs I am all ear.

 

[Junglejim]

Philippines in a nutshell, if ever we went to war against the US. I would be the first Filipino to be shot by Filipinos for going against the US.

Now that we have that out of the way, the relationship between the Philippines and China is a bit more complicated, we have trade with them and we dont trust them, but not really seen as the main enemy. The only sticking point we have against them is the Spratleys and that whole 9 dashed line. Which even China is limpdickedly trying to enforce. On those issue, the US is more seen as the Zippo of a potential dormant powder keg. We dont care about their internal issues and they dont care about ours. Taiwan and China are one and the same for us.

Even our modernization is aimed at parity to our neighbors rather than as a possible counter to China. Hell, 2 admins ago China had a big chance of being part of the modernization.

The recent survey on trust rating shows US and Australia as the most trusted ( I know right? Just look at the aussies in this forum) and China and Russia as the least trusted

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Taiwan reported at least two DF15, one DF16 and "a" DF17 (allegedly) flew over the island.

Beach-goers undisturbed.

 

[Junglejim]

Taiwan reported at least two DF15, one DF16 and "a" DF17 (allegedly) flew over the island.

Beach-goers undisturbed.

And one of their rockets crashed in our seas a few days ago. Par for the course in this side of the world.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Par for the course, yes. Like DPRK rockets crashing here and there next to the coasts of Japan.

But the context is different.


China issued a new NOTAM regarding the addition of a 7th "danger zone":



I wonder if it is a consequence of the recent shots fired in that area, which were supposed to land in the concerned TDA but missed the mark.

 

[Junglejim]

It's probably to avoid a serious escalation should one of those missiles hit say an Airliner coming from Japan, SoKor and the Philippines. That orange mark is pretty much a highway for Airliners. You hit one and it would be very embarassing for China and would further destroy their image.
It is more for local consumption as its barely making noise in and around the countries in the surroundings.

 

[Junglejim]

Don't get me wrong China as a threat is probably far more capable and devastating than Russia. They have an economy and means of production that only the Russian Army can dream off. Plus they have the numbers that they can afford multiple mistakes to learn. However, unlike Russia, China thinks and looks long term on how it should act and be seen. A war will neither bring it defeat or victory, but will just devastate all their work to be where they are. Hence the belt drive initiative

 

[Redav]

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[Euroamerican]

So, nuclear-capable SRBMs being flown OVER the middle of your country? That seems really provocative and how likely would you be to respond?

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Nancy's "ballsy" move looks more and more like farting in a packed elevator just before leaving it.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Japanese MOD press release showing Chinese missile launch mapping:

【お知らせ：中国弾道ミサイル発射について】

中国弾道ミサイル発射について

www.mod.go.jp

① At around 14:56, launched from the coast of Fujian Province and flew about 350 km.
② At around 14:56, it was launched from inland China and flew about 700km.
③ At around 15:14, the missile was launched from inland China and flew about 550 km.
④ At around 15:57, it was launched from the Zhejiang coast and flew about 350km.
⑤ At around 15:57, it was launched from the Zhejiang coast and flew about 650km.
⑥ At around 16:05, launched from the coast of Fujian Province and flew about 500 km.
⑦ At around 16:05, launched from the coast of Fujian Province and flew about 550 km.
⑧ At around 16:08, launched from the coast of Fujian Province and flew about 500 km.
⑨ At around 16:08, launched from the coast of Fujian Province and flew about 550km.

5 missiles landed within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone.

 

[Junglejim]

So, nuclear-capable SRBMs being flown OVER the middle of your country? That seems really provocative and how likely would you be to respond?

It's been done by NoKor before. Again its nothing really new. Some media re trying to make a big deal out of nothing. From my friends in Taiwan the biggest WTF for them is the embargo on pastry industry. Cause in Asia foodies are king. China was cuckold by Pelosis trip, what China is doing is like I said before that it is he same to a guy acting tough after the real men left the bar.

Yes, hard for some to accept, but Pelosi made China its bitch

 

[Picanha]

Anyway Chinas combat prowess must be proven first before engaging other real powers.

Maybe they also have nice presentations of red flag waving storming role model communist soldiers for Xi?

They spend 50 % time reading Xis books and pondering about communism....

 

[Telmar]

China started getting all agitated, screaming, squealing, yelling that we would see what we would see if Pelosi did the visit.

There was no way for the USA to back down from such a challenge. No respectable country can back down.

Had they said that they would prefer not, that they would prefer a visit to mainland China before...then it might have all been different.

 

[Jake84]

It's been done by NoKor before. Again its nothing really new. Some media re trying to make a big deal out of nothing. From my friends in Taiwan the biggest WTF for them is the embargo on pastry industry. Cause in Asia foodies are king. China was cuckold by Pelosis trip, what China is doing is like I said before that it is he same to a guy acting tough after the real men left the bar.

Yes, hard for some to accept, but Pelosi made China its bitch

That’s quite an interesting point of view but since you’re and I’m being very broad here “around the area” and have been for most of your life I’ll take it and listen.

Basically a few days ago, some Chinese threats were being tossed around like “let’s shoot down Pelosi plane”. Sure thing and as much as I dislike her, good luck China in destroying an American aircraft carrying an American representative whatever negative opinion I and many other hold of her.

China is looking long term, also agreed and unlike Russia 24th of February I’m not quite yet seeing the PLA land on the Taiwanese coast like it’s Operation Overlord. Comparison isn’t accurate but ya know what I mean.

They have the mean, ressources and the largest by soldiers army in the world by a mile. Asians tend to be more rational too. Let’s see what happens and may the less blood spill.

 

[NoOne]

I wonder if Japan and Australia will stand by if China initiates a shooting war and what will the Indians, Vietnamese and South Koreans be thinking, as well as the UK, France, etc, etc.
Russia may help some, but China hasn't exactly rushed to help out in Ukraine.... and then there is North Korea.
Things get complicated quickly.

 

[Chazman]

My 2 cents. I believe Xi will only risk an invasion of Taiwan and islands if he calculates it is the only way to take attention off of the collapsing CCP economy and save his own ass politically. However CCP losses would be heavy. They would make Russian losses look like a training accident. The toll on Chinese ships and aircraft would be staggering.

In any scenario, the West would need to act immediately before the CCP gets a toe hold.

As far as Pelosi’s trip. Just another money making deal to cap off her long and corrupt career which is about to end.