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Disclaimer:
I enlisted ChatGPT to help organize my thoughts and structure them so that they aren't so schizophernic. The message remains unchanged—just refined for clarity. Enjoy the EM dashes.
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Alright degenerates, gather ‘round. This is the post-mortem for the analysis the mods couldn’t handle.
21.5k upvotes. 4.8 million views. 3.3k comments. 7.5k shares. 4 awards.
Then?
Deleted. No rule cited. No DM. No “tone it down.” Just gone. Why?
Because I said what the markets won’t:
The Fed blinked. China and Canada are holding the detonator. And the U.S. Treasury market—the holy grail of global finance—isn’t bulletproof anymore.
Let’s recap:
- Japan started quietly dumping Treasuries. Data from Japan's Ministry of Finance indicates that Japanese investors were net sellers of foreign bonds in the week ending April 5, 2025, marking a significant shift in their investment behavior. www.fxstreet.com
- China responded to tariffs by not escalating—a silence that screamed “we’re ready.” China's measured response to the U.S. tariffs suggests strategic positioning rather than immediate retaliation. www.theguardian.com
- Japan, South Korea, and China began coordinating trade and financial policy. Reports indicate that these nations have engaged in discussions to align their economic strategies in response to U.S. trade policies. www.reuters.com
- Canada issued a $3.5B USD bond, signaled reserve repositioning, and quietly hinted at coordinated selling. Mark Carney didn’t even have to raise his voice—just moved a piece on the board and let the pressure rise. www.snopes.com/
- Bond yields exploded. Liquidity evaporated. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly surpassed 5%, reaching levels not seen since late 2023, signaling a significant drop in demand. www.theguardian.com
- The Fed muttered, “we’ll stabilize markets if needed.” This statement indicates the Federal Reserve's readiness to intervene in the markets to maintain stability amid the volatility. www.theaustralian.com.au
All of this points to one thing:
This is no longer about interest rates or inflation. This is a trust war.
And trust—not tanks—is what backs the U.S. dollar.
Here’s what I didn’t get to post:
The infrastructure broke.
The system cracked under the pressure.
According to
Risk.net, over $2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries were traded per day during the height of the tariff fallout—double the average daily volume.
www.risk.net (Paywalled)
FIS and Trading Technologies—core post-trade platforms used by major brokerages—experienced significant processing delays due to the unprecedented trade volumes.
This wasn’t Reddit lagging under upvotes. This was the
clearing layer of the bond market going offline.
That’s the nightmare:
A liquidity shock colliding with a back-office failure.
It creates a bottleneck that spirals into
margin calls, repo freezes, counterparty chaos, and then—
maybe—an actual market halt.
And what happened right after?
A surprise tariff exemption.
Which brings me to the biggest tell of all: the walkback.
Trump spent days imposing 125% tariffs. Then suddenly:
He backs off. Quietly. Subtly. A pause. A delay. A face-saving half-reversal.
content.govdelivery.com
Why?
Because
the bond market screamed.
Because
Japan’s selling worked.
Because
the Treasury floor buckled—and the White House blinked.
That tariff exemption
validates everything:
- If the tariffs were effective, there would be no need to flinch.
- If China, Japan, or others weren’t leveraging their holdings, there’d be no fear.
- If the Treasury market wasn’t exposed, the Fed wouldn’t have signaled intervention.
This was a
geopolitical stress test—and the U.S. didn’t pass.
It limped across the finish line.
So what now?
This is the
foundation under your economy catching fire.
And the Fed just checked the beams and heard them
hollow.
If you missed the original post, I’ve reuploaded it onto my profile
An idiot's Reddit profile.
If you’re a mod, just admit it rattled you. Don’t pretend it was “low effort” or “off-topic.”
You know exactly what this was.
If I’m wrong? Great. I’m an idiot with a flair for drama.
But if I’m right?
I'll reiterate
Tick.
f***ing.
Tock.
Edit:
To save me responding to all the "braindead/CCP cope/OP is an idiot" comments:
Cool, go buy calls about it then.
Also, for everyone else:
Don't take me at face value, try and prove me wrong, then invest based on how well you feel you did.