Politics South China Sea Thread

[Junglejim]

I cant speak for Vietnam, but the bilateral relationship between the Philippines and Japan is probably in a stronger tie and position than the Philippines relationship with the US. Weird for most, but the trust between the two countries is next level, that the US might be able to use Japan if it can convince it to do some of the work in getting the Philippines on board.

- Asian Development Bank (basically the Japanese IMF/worldbank) is headquartered in the Manila.
- Despite of the rhetoric and pomp, it is Japan that is our biggest source of loans and grants.
- the Japanese trust rating in the Philippines would make it seem that had the Philippines not been a colony, it would have sided with Japan in WW2.
- Japanese businesses here are very much welcomed

Militarily:
- Japan is building ships for our Coast Guards that take on the SCS
- leased and then gave us TC-90 aircraft (5, they offered more but we turned it down)
- sent their stock of parts for the UH-1 when they went with the 412

- Philippines switched from Israeli to Japan for the next set of RADARS, it was more expensive but again, its Japanese. Part of the deal is they help in building up or designing the Philippine Air Defense systems.
- Japan offered some missiles that we turned down as it would make China go nuts.
- Tech transfer and helping us build our satellites.

 

[Junglejim]

As for the others from the POV in the Philippines:

India:
- India is making grounds and would be seen as trustworthy here more than China. Lots of Indian immigrants here too
- main issue is they just are too far away to have their presence felt, but might change drastically as they are offering the Bramhos, ASW planes etc. for a credible defence

Malaysia:
- The Philippines really does not trust it and vice versa, due to recent pasts. Both are friendly, but the burried hatchets have the handles poking out of the ground.

Indonesia:
- Of all the ASEAN nations, this one is trusted by the Philippines the most. Good relationship and look at each other as brothers from another mother.
- Military wise the trsut is there and both share intelligence openly and "do things" for one another to help each other out.
- Both probably dont trust the others as much, probably an insular mindset

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Hong Kong’s National Security Promises Were All Hollow

The Beijing-backed law is now used to crush dissent across the board.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[Ivan le Fou]

China must be prepared to strike first using nukes, top diplomat says

Sha Zukang, China's former ambassador to the UN, has called on Beijing to drop its policy that means nukes can only be used in retaliation in response to America's growing Pacific presence.

www.dailymail.co.uk

And since Miley is willing to get China a heads up...

 

[Ivan le Fou]

China frees 2 jailed Canadians after the U.S. agrees to release a Huawei executive. (Published 2021)

Two Canadians imprisoned in China since 2018 were free and on their way home, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada announced on Friday night.

www.nytimes.com

*friendly reminder: don't travel to China*

 

[Chazman]

Taiwan Deploys 'Anti-Aircraft Missiles' Against Chinese PLA Incursion

Two dozen Chinese military aircraft penetrated Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Thursday.

www.breitbart.com

 

[Picanha]

China frees 2 jailed Canadians after the U.S. agrees to release a Huawei executive. (Published 2021)

Two Canadians imprisoned in China since 2018 were free and on their way home, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada announced on Friday night.

www.nytimes.com

*friendly reminder: don't travel to China*

It will eventually be hard anyway to get behind the silk curtain if you are not a "needed by the CCP foreigner".

 

[Ivan le Fou]

It will eventually be hard anyway to get behind the silk curtain if you are not a "needed by the CCP foreigner".

Being a foreigner needed by the CCP isn't a guarantee of anything either.

Kind of the same thing has been seen in Saudi Arabia and similar countries; you are basically in a golden cage.

 

[Picanha]

I guess it will just be much stricter and more secluded. Even for ordinary tourists.

Like in Xinjiang where police and state security follows you and many areas are off limits.

 

[Junglejim]

Seriously you guys are actually doing the same echo chamber analysis like what you are doing for America's internal issues. Over 30 million people travel to China annually. It is a lot harder to get a Visa to enter India, France, UK, America, and Russia than it is to get a Chinese visa... I've had actual experience with all of those. Travelling to China, you actually can see tourists everywhere and the state presence would be the same around everywhere else. Where you notice the difference is the firewall of their internet but there are ways around it and its not like the Chinese government will hunt you down cause of your VPN. Oh also in their airways, once you enter China, you follow a specific flight path as the rest are no fly zones.

China's politics and issues as a nation is basically where the US was in the 1900s. A rising power thats dealing with old guards and trying to find itself, along with figuring out its internal turmoils. So yes, it will attack an easy target to assert its presence. The main difference is their neighborhood is full of stronger nations unlike the Americas at that time.

Writing off China because you dont agree with its politics by what you read in the news, is you missing out in a very interesting country and a fun visit.... take my word, if you are posting in this forum, you arent as important as you think and the Chinese Internal security will probably not notice you exist in their land.

 

[Flagg]

I cant speak for Vietnam, but the bilateral relationship between the Philippines and Japan is probably in a stronger tie and position than the Philippines relationship with the US. Weird for most, but the trust between the two countries is next level, that the US might be able to use Japan if it can convince it to do some of the work in getting the Philippines on board.

- Asian Development Bank (basically the Japanese IMF/worldbank) is headquartered in the Manila.
- Despite of the rhetoric and pomp, it is Japan that is our biggest source of loans and grants.
- the Japanese trust rating in the Philippines would make it seem that had the Philippines not been a colony, it would have sided with Japan in WW2.
- Japanese businesses here are very much welcomed

Militarily:
- Japan is building ships for our Coast Guards that take on the SCS
- leased and then gave us TC-90 aircraft (5, they offered more but we turned it down)
- sent their stock of parts for the UH-1 when they went with the 412

- Philippines switched from Israeli to Japan for the next set of RADARS, it was more expensive but again, its Japanese. Part of the deal is they help in building up or designing the Philippine Air Defense systems.
- Japan offered some missiles that we turned down as it would make China go nuts.
- Tech transfer and helping us build our satellites.

That’s awesome to see Japan taking a bigger regional security role in bilateral partnerships.

It’s really interesting to hear of Japan as the accelerator rather than the brake of bilateral military procurement.

I know there‘s been some open and discrete COIN/CT between Philippines and Aus/NZ.

It will be interesting to see if that grows to includes conventional maritime operations.

China represents an economic threat the likes of which the Soviet Union, Warsaw Pact, Cuba, North Korea, and Mao’s China combined never did.

And eventually a true peer military threat.

The picture you present looks like a bunch of non or sem-aligned nations friendly with some aligned nations that can collectively/effectively easily counter any extreme conventional maritime domain silliness from China for the foreseeable future.

So China is highly unlikely to do anything super silly unless they want their SLOCs severed.

Just slightly silly if the domestic Chinese environment compels external action.

However, I would expect a few things:

1) China ramping up economic and political pressure on non/semi-aligned regional nations to counter #2

2) Regional nations ramping up discrete bilateral partnership to counter #1

I can almost imagine a natural homeostasis emerging without the US having to take a massive leadership position.

It almost looks like the US may be better off playing a very strong support role with the odd force projection example, rather than the usual other way around.

Beyond the growing risk of a South China Sea Falklands/Grenada conflict scenario, I think trade + infrastructure = wealth is the most important and potent weapon in this competition.

 

[Junglejim]

Japan already mentioned that they will intervene in the SCS if it the status quo is questioned. I agree on your point that the US needs to shed its interfering image and probably go with the "strong support." The Americans operating in the Philippines is highly active but keeps a light footprint that most Filipinos can accept. No rallies against their presence but people know they are there. Probably cause they are more of the secret squirrel types and ninjas. Now if the US can replicate that with the rest of their armed forces, I'm sure the rest of Asia wont react too much and see the US as just looking for another war.

Australia has a presence in the country and works well with the government so is a non issue. Hell their task force is making a port call in Manila tomorrow.

ASEAN nations have a strong colonial memory and they are just trying to make up their own policies and US us versus them approach rubs the nations the wrong way.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2021/09/26/were-only-seeking-chinas-views-says-defence-minister/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd__4dUvfXKtIH4HQN7ZZgSP.yjLwhslAhylikZGxh7XDc-1632652220-0-gqNtZGzNAnujcnBszQn9

The Malaysian people oppose China's actions, influence & views, but many politicians are in China's payroll.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

China played dirty to get Huawei’s 'princess' back — too dirty to tell its own people

Now the saga is finally over, Meng Wanzhou's release back to China this weekend is a big victory for Beijing, taken on face value, writes Bill Birtles.

www.abc.net.au

China's government ordered its state-run media to celebrate with wall-to-wall coverage thanking "the motherland" & the Communist Party.

There's been absolutely no mention in China's media of the Canadians being released in order to get Ms Meng back.

 

[BeNder]

When Japan finally awakes. with a great Navy and nukes, stealth aircraft, it will definitely heat up. Japan is very capable, Need to update their law.

 

[Junglejim]

When Japan finally awakes. with a great Navy and nukes, stealth aircraft, it will definitely heat up. Japan is very capable, Need to update their law.

Japan has already been awake now and carries an influence only china can dream off in its area of interest. They just realized a soft spoken voice with enough wad of cash is a lot easier to accept by its neighbors than going all bushido in their asses.

 

[Junglejim]

RAN in Manila

The colors of ASEAN are showing rather quickly and would give the US and other western nations where the ASEAN nations are tilting:

China seeks support from Southeast Asia in wake of new security pact

A senior foreign ministry official has met ambassadors from the region to discuss the new Aukus alliance, which he denounced as ‘hypocritical and treacherous’

www.scmp.com

 

[morris]

Some psychological games there.

An American aircraft carrier of the Gerald R. Ford type burning after being hit by Chinese ballistic / cruise missiles at the exposition of the Chinese state shipbuilding corporation China Shipbuilding State Corporation - CSSC in Zhuhai.

 

[morris]

Some psychological games there.

Another interesting one from the International Aviation and Space Salon Airshow China-2021 in Zhuhai. Movable mock-up of the American M1A2 Abrams main tank developed by luo Yang Rosen Technology. The model is intended for computer simulation of test firing of promising Chinese anti-tank systems.

 

[morris]

Eleventh Annual South China Sea Conference.

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