Politics China's Economy and Politics

[Junglejim]

@Fluff answered pretty accurately to this point already, JJ but I as a westerner am no descendants of Hitler, King Léopold of Belgium, or the slave owners crackers in America.

You know what? Most “westerners” are actually great grandson of people who were harvesting vegetables for a lifetime in the fields of Europe, and grandson of those that worked 50 more hours a week and 6 days per week in factories. Just ask the Britons, Irish, French or Poles. And the rest of Europe and America.

It’s a tiny minority of “westerners” and I know you mean white peoples by that that once ruled the world and you know what? Things are no different today with the infamous 1% of the world population owning 95% of the planet wealth.

Ah yes, "westerners" and "whypeepo" are supposed to carry burden of things done centuries ago by their "ancestors".

Good old collective and skin color guilt.

You guys are the ones talking about guilt and skin color. Im talking about the "West" as a geopolitical entity, I dont care if its an African American or Filipino Brit dropping smart bombs over me, they will both be part of the west. Like I said people are complaining because they are on the receiving end of another players rise to power. Everything being fed by media or governments is just an agenda. Right now the agenda is to keep the status quo.

One of the Chinese belt and drive initiative is so China can focus on high tech and start innovation, by transferring production of its more basic goods to the countries involved in it, namely South East Asian countries. Now, China will definitely gain more influence and power overtime, but overtime these other Asian countries will grow and generate their own influence and power. Any movements of power/ influence balance to the East, would be a negative impact on the West.... This is why China needs to be stopped.

The Great Game is bigger than an individuals feelings or a sense of guilt.

And yes "whypeepo" are still bombing and trying to control regions way out of their regional "buffer" zones. So stop saying "oh its the past" cause Arab Spring, Afghanistan, and government interference is pretty much the present.

Do I hate the west? No. Am I asking you to feel guilty? Nope. Frankly none of our governments care.

 

[Jake84]

On you last point though, sure, Mali, Astan, Syria and Libya are still present.

I wonder how many westerners, hence our population still approve of those wars, however. Our govt tell us it’s to prevent terrorism and refugees coming over here, the truth is French giants like Lafarge and Total have key interest in Africa and the ME. They are the one that needs protection.

Also the Arab spring had very little to do with western interference. It’s a movement started in Tunisia with a little shop owner setting himself on fire and the domino effects all across the Middle East. I grant you that Sarkozy screwed up Libya big times though.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

You guys are the ones talking about guilt and skin color.

hehehehe westerners calling China out on exterminating people.

You are the one deflecting and bringing the whataboutism on the table bru.

The whole "war in the Middle East" thing is way more complicated than what you are trying to imply. And extremely few of the "westerners" were and are in favor of these protracted wars, and even to the very idea of these wars to begin with.
It's not about "westerners", but governments and governmental officials taking on themselves to go do sh*t abroad. "Westerners" haven't been asked their opinion.

But yeah "westerners" and such.

 

[Fluff]

You guys are the ones talking about guilt and skin color. Im talking about the "West" as a geopolitical entity, I dont care if its an African American or Filipino Brit dropping smart bombs over me, they will both be part of the west. Like I said people are complaining because they are on the receiving end of another players rise to power. Everything being fed by media or governments is just an agenda. Right now the agenda is to keep the status quo.

One of the Chinese belt and drive initiative is so China can focus on high tech and start innovation, by transferring production of its more basic goods to the countries involved in it, namely South East Asian countries. Now, China will definitely gain more influence and power overtime, but overtime these other Asian countries will grow and generate their own influence and power. Any movements of power/ influence balance to the East, would be a negative impact on the West.... This is why China needs to be stopped.

The Great Game is bigger than an individuals feelings or a sense of guilt.

And yes "whypeepo" are still bombing and trying to control regions way out of their regional "buffer" zones. So stop saying "oh its the past" cause Arab Spring, Afghanistan, and government interference is pretty much the present.

Do I hate the west? No. Am I asking you to feel guilty? Nope. Frankly none of our governments care.

On China, those factories in Vietnam or wherever, will be making orders for the west, so west still has some influence. I dont think the west is trying to stop other countries developing, and these countries still buy 'western' engineered products, thats where germany for example makes its living. Then they buy life and health insurance, thats London covered.

its not only the west bombing people, I dont think the west has much interest in the recent ethiopia issues? Philippines has muslim insurections etc, is that the west? Do you bomb them? I think you do - is it ok to bomb if their skin colour is the same as you?

ME is a mess, will be a mess long after we are all avatars talking s**t with other avatars.

 

[BeNder]

hehehehe westerners calling China out on exterminating people.

Really?

Communist Body Count

The following estimates represent citizens killed or starved to death by their own Communist governments since 1918. These numbers do not include war dead. The governments are sorted by body count …

scottmanning.com

 

[Junglejim]

On you last point though, sure, Mali, Astan, Syria and Libya are still present.

I wonder how many westerners, hence our population still approve of those wars, however. Our govt tell us it’s to prevent terrorism and refugees coming over here, the truth is French giants like Lafarge and Total have key interest in Africa and the ME. They are the one that needs protection.

Also the Arab spring had very little to do with western interference. It’s a movement started in Tunisia with a little shop owner setting himself on fire and the domino effects all across the Middle East. I grant you that Sarkozy screwed up Libya big times though.

So we agree on the part that its not about skin color its more of a Geopolitical game. We as individuals have no stake in it but they have to convince us who the enemy is that threatens their dominance which happens to be the West. Im not being holier than thou, it's just fact. China is a threat to Western dominance and hence needs to be controlled, contained or destroyed. The media and government only talks to us, no matter what side, simply because it would be our blood and guts that will be spilled if ever. Look Philippines and China have an issues in the SCS since the 1980s, but when I flew there we were all friends....It clearly didnt mean we wont land grab and shoot each other if itbenefits one or the other

As for Arab spring... doesnt matter where the movement started, the West interfered not because it was for the good of the arabs, but because there was an interest there. So France is in Africa for the betterment of Africans then?

This is why I keep saying its Geopolitics.

You are the one deflecting and bringing the whataboutism on the table bru.

The whole "war in the Middle East" thing is way more complicated than what you are trying to imply. And extremely few of the "westerners" were and are in favor of these protracted wars, and even to the very idea of these wars to begin with.
It's not about "westerners", but governments and governmental officials taking on themselves to go do sh*t abroad. "Westerners" haven't been asked their opinion.

But yeah "westerners" and such.

It doesnt matter whether few "westerners were in favor" the Western powers will interfere when it benefits them no matter how you dont like it. Since the western powers are manned by westerners, then yeah "westerners and such" Deal with it or shake your fist, it wont change a single bit.

On China, those factories in Vietnam or wherever, will be making orders for the west, so west still has some influence. I dont think the west is trying to stop other countries developing, and these countries still buy 'western' engineered products, thats where germany for example makes its living. Then they buy life and health insurance, thats London covered.

its not only the west bombing people, I dont think the west has much interest in the recent ethiopia issues? Philippines has muslim insurections etc, is that the west? Do you bomb them? I think you do - is it ok to bomb if their skin colour is the same as you?

ME is a mess, will be a mess long after we are all avatars talking s**t with other avatars.

The West will not stop other nations developing as long as it benefits the West. Your example in the first paragraph says that., unless I'm mistaken. This is why China is a major threat to the West, because it can provide what Germans and London cover. Sure for now it cant cover it all, but thats why the West isnt waiting and is trying to contain China now. There maybe was a miscalculation in developing China, but the West benefitted from it a lot, now that its a threat to the status quo, time to contain China.

Philippines has a Muslim insurrection, where skin colors come in these conversations, I'm still confused. Philippines is multi racial, same as France same as other European countries... now fact is the EU starts targeting the Philippines with human rights violations and threat of sanctions, thats where the "western" interference comes in and actually controls the development. Sure as hell, Europeans didnt bitch and moan when the Brits put Malaysians in concentration camps to control an insurgency. Before it spirals about "whataboutism" as Ivan likes to call double standards, I was simply using the Malaysian crisis as an example, since you mentioned about insurrection. Not to say that Brits were wrong or evil (only their mods )

Really?

Communist Body Count

The following estimates represent citizens killed or starved to death by their own Communist governments since 1918. These numbers do not include war dead. The governments are sorted by body count …

scottmanning.com

The more of them the better, I dont see your point. They are in the freakin billions, any body count will always be huge for China. The first line also mentions "Estimates."

Why are you guys so offended? It was a US Air Force officer indoctrinating Civil Air Patrol cadets in my squadron with "America does not send its young men to die in distant lands for freedom, it sends them to die because there is an American interest there that is at stake." Which made a lot of sense to me.

I think we are diverging away from the original post so to tie it in to my original comment of westerners talking to the East about genocide, you did what you had to do to enjoy the position of being on top now. Point being its been going on since time immemorial, get of the high horse. I prefer a "you do you, man" approach.

 

[Fluff]

So we agree on the part that its not about skin color its more of a Geopolitical game. We as individuals have no stake in it but they have to convince us who the enemy is that threatens their dominance which happens to be the West. Im not being holier than thou, it's just fact. China is a threat to Western dominance and hence needs to be controlled, contained or destroyed. The media and government only talks to us, no matter what side, simply because it would be our blood and guts that will be spilled if ever. Look Philippines and China have an issues in the SCS since the 1980s, but when I flew there we were all friends....It clearly didnt mean we wont land grab and shoot each other if itbenefits one or the other

As for Arab spring... doesnt matter where the movement started, the West interfered not because it was for the good of the arabs, but because there was an interest there. So France is in Africa for the betterment of Africans then?

This is why I keep saying its Geopolitics.


It doesnt matter whether few "westerners were in favor" the Western powers will interfere when it benefits them no matter how you dont like it. Since the western powers are manned by westerners, then yeah "westerners and such" Deal with it or shake your fist, it wont change a single bit.



The West will not stop other nations developing as long as it benefits the West. Your example in the first paragraph says that., unless I'm mistaken. This is why China is a major threat to the West, because it can provide what Germans and London cover. Sure for now it cant cover it all, but thats why the West isnt waiting and is trying to contain China now. There maybe was a miscalculation in developing China, but the West benefitted from it a lot, now that its a threat to the status quo, time to contain China.

Philippines has a Muslim insurrection, where skin colors come in these conversations, I'm still confused. Philippines is multi racial, same as France same as other European countries... now fact is the EU starts targeting the Philippines with human rights violations and threat of sanctions, thats where the "western" interference comes in and actually controls the development. Sure as hell, Europeans didnt bitch and moan when the Brits put Malaysians in concentration camps to control an insurgency. Before it spirals about "whataboutism" as Ivan likes to call double standards, I was simply using the Malaysian crisis as an example, since you mentioned about insurrection. Not to say that Brits were wrong or evil (only their mods )


The more of them the better, I dont see your point. They are in the freakin billions, any body count will always be huge for China. The first line also mentions "Estimates."

Why are you guys so offended? It was a US Air Force officer indoctrinating Civil Air Patrol cadets in my squadron with "America does not send its young men to die in distant lands for freedom, it sends them to die because there is an American interest there that is at stake." Which made a lot of sense to me.

I think we are diverging away from the original post so to tie it in to my original comment of westerners talking to the East about genocide, you did what you had to do to enjoy the position of being on top now. Point being its been going on since time immemorial, get of the high horse. I prefer a "you do you, man" approach.

I think you maybe painting the 'west' as one entity. Once upon a time the UK really did rule the world, then America, not really the same.

As to why go to other countries to fight, because we can, and it moves most of the fight away from our shores.

Obviously any country accused today of mistreating a minority or whatever, by a western nation, is going to throw empire building and killing the natives back. Doesnt make it right, then or now. Equally countries have to deal with issues, dont recall many countries worrying about Northern Ireland, other that soviets and americans sending weapons......

The whole China thing, they arent going to take over the world, nor run it, not make everything. I've said before, once people get to 'middle class' status, they prefer not to see it blown up, nor send their sons off to fight etc. as they dont have a spare son anymore. Once the cost to make something in china is 90% of the cost in Europe, the work will come back, to mostly robotic factories, while we all serve moccafrapechonis to each other.

Also just asking, if china really wanted to expand and conquer, Philippines would be high on the list, we kind off assume you'd like our assistance in terms of the South china sea islands etc? If we took the chinese request to get lost, really they are just asking to be allowed to bully you all into surrendering anything they are interested in, to them? dont you think? of course the benefit from us, is to tie up china for 20 years, in getting hold of some island with gas/oil under it, or whatever. Really same for Tiawan, we font give a s**t about tiawan, but it ties up the commies a bit longer.

 

[primer]

They aren't communists anymore. By any stretch of the imagination. Its only face saving they still keep the ccp logo.

 

[Flagg]

For those calling China corrupt, counterfeit, and hollow it's worth looking at a few things:

Like this article for a start:
https://hbr.org/2021/05/chinas-new-innovation-advantage

I'll first reference Kodak: They dominated the film market and developed the first digital camera(outside of NRO spooks) in 1975.

Despite this, Kodal decided to optimize for FILM over PHOTOS and lost

Today, China has decided to optimize for COMPETITION over CONFLICT and is winning(geopolitical market share).

China has poured more concrete in 3 years than the US did in the 100 years of the 20th century.

Corrupt(tick), counterfeit(tick), hollow? Absolutely not.

One Belt, One Road...adjusted for inflation is a full level of magnitude+ greater than the Marshall Plan.

China is not like the Cold War-era Soviet Union developing a monolithic and separate economic system, China is developing a competing network within the existing global system that could eventually scale enough to not just influence, but actively shape and lead the system.

Yes, we are currently balls deep in an unconventional war of sorts with China. Simply look no further than China's Three Warfares(political, economic, legal) to understand how it's being conducted from a Chinese perspective.

But from a western perspective, we(meaning most of us) don't really articulate, understand, and "do" war unless it involves shooting people in the face.

It's really about the greatest Hot Competition the world has ever seen.

"Hot" as in never-before-seen levels of agility, aggression, and velocity that very infrequently involve kinetic warfare.

I'd much rather have 1 billion installed users in the developing world(Africa), locked into my nation's digital superplatforms than 3 Ford-class supercarrier battle groups.

One is hugely cash-flow positive with massive influence, the other is hugely cash-flow negative with massive effect(when used).

We're moving into a period where superplatforms(competition) matter more than supercarriers(conflict).

 

[Flagg]

of course the benefit from us, is to tie up china for 20 years, in getting hold of some island with gas/oil under it, or whatever. Really same for Tiawan, we font give a s**t about tiawan, but it ties up the commies a bit longer.

I would respectfully disagree.

The world runs on water, energy, and silicon.

Food is not included, but it is implied because if you have enough water and energy you can grow food on granite.

Silicon is a problem for both China and the US.

Because the best silicon in the world is in Taiwan. Taiwan knows it, China knows it, the US knows it.

I used to work in semicon.

TSMC pretty much corners the market in 5/7nm silicon, despite Samsung having some capacity.

The US DoD/gov't is running a Manhattan-like silicon project for about $10 billion to onshore TSMC high-end chip fabrication in the US Southwest.

In 3 years when it comes online, it will represent a mere 5% of global high-end chip capacity. 5%.

In the same timeframe, TSMC will invest well over $100 billion, 10x, in Taiwan.

TSMC and Taiwan are existentially intertwined in US/Taiwan relations and US national defense strategy.

Living without ARAMCO(Saudi Arabia) would be painful, living without TSMC(Taiwan) would be lethal.

So while you're right that we don't give a s*** about Taiwan, our existence as we know it is hugely reliant on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSMC).

 

[Picanha]

For those calling China corrupt, counterfeit, and hollow it's worth looking at a few things:

Like this article for a start:
https://hbr.org/2021/05/chinas-new-innovation-advantage

I'll first reference Kodak: They dominated the film market and developed the first digital camera(outside of NRO spooks) in 1975.

Despite this, Kodal decided to optimize for FILM over PHOTOS and lost

Today, China has decided to optimize for COMPETITION over CONFLICT and is winning(geopolitical market share).

China has poured more concrete in 3 years than the US did in the 100 years of the 20th century.

Corrupt(tick), counterfeit(tick), hollow? Absolutely not.

One Belt, One Road...adjusted for inflation is a full level of magnitude+ greater than the Marshall Plan.

China is not like the Cold War-era Soviet Union developing a monolithic and separate economic system, China is developing a competing network within the existing global system that could eventually scale enough to not just influence, but actively shape and lead the system.

Yes, we are currently balls deep in an unconventional war of sorts with China. Simply look no further than China's Three Warfares(political, economic, legal) to understand how it's being conducted from a Chinese perspective.

But from a western perspective, we(meaning most of us) don't really articulate, understand, and "do" war unless it involves shooting people in the face.

It's really about the greatest Hot Competition the world has ever seen.

"Hot" as in never-before-seen levels of agility, aggression, and velocity that very infrequently involve kinetic warfare.

I'd much rather have 1 billion installed users in the developing world(Africa), locked into my nation's digital superplatforms than 3 Ford-class supercarrier battle groups.

One is hugely cash-flow positive with massive influence, the other is hugely cash-flow negative with massive effect(when used).

We're moving into a period where superplatforms(competition) matter more than supercarriers(conflict).

But thats exactly the point I have. Which competitions will CCP led companies have among each other eventually?

An example are information tech, CCP will never allow an entrepreneur to control it.

And if you look at the momentary competitions thats a forced one. Just fueled by the panic of international companies being shut out of Chinas Market.

It is by far not the same competition a market driven economy offers.

Competetiveness ist heavily subsidise by the CCP.

 

[Picanha]

I once read, can't remember where anymore, that:

A state leeching off of a liberal and free society always prevails above the state leeching off of a supressed society.

Future will tell if the authoritarian capitalistic model can survive.


I am very sceptical in the case of China because it is also coupled with the masses well being. The wish of total control of the party. And political elements steering developments and giving orders.


The opening point of falsifying eceonomic data is just an indicator of things to come.

Right now the Regime in China is leeching off of the free societies. Hence the huge growth. But can they sustain growth and spur useful innovation without the outside input? And is it effective?

Heck you can't even watch Netflix in China out of the CCPs fear of insurrection because, watching "enemy" TV.

I don't think they are incapable but many factors tend to make it unsustainable. They can build spaceships if you order them to for example.

On the other hand their state companies sometimes take forever to bring (top notch) products to market

Just as an example if the CRRC has outsubsidised and outsripped all competition of their technology and is the sole provider of rolling stock on earth? Can you imagine that?

The CCP made a smart move in using the globalisation to offset those disadvantages. The rest of the world is used as a motor of competetion in a way.

Their system would not work in a closed environment.


So back to CRRC which Innovation would there come of then? Some apparatschiks would settle down and decide? Or will one Elon Musk type pursuit his vision? What is more probable?


Those large CCP companies are already heavy on employees and don't work on accurate numbers. Because there is always eth helping hand in the shadow. (And pressure to deliver nice numbers) So it can be kept up what long would have gone bankrupt in the West.

All this is financed and buffered with distorted market access to your competitors.

 

[Flagg]

But thats exactly the point I have. Which competitions will CCP led companies have among each other eventually?

An example are information tech, CCP will never allow an entrepreneur to control it.

And if you look at the momentary competitions thats a forced one. Just fueled by the panic of international companies being shut out of Chinas Market.

It is by far not the same competition a market driven economy offers.

Competetiveness ist heavily subsidise by the CCP.

I’m not sure if we are having the same conversation(legit, no offence).

Things work differently in China.

It’s not an excuse or “this time is different” empty/silly justificationas we often hear with each investment bubble in the West.

There are now more legit billionaires in China than the US.

Control is a relative thing. Controlling equity? That’s the entrepreneurs. Controlling national objectives/narratives? Thats the CCP/PLA.

Jack Ma seems like a very good human being(based in many diverse individual experiences with him) if a bit of an eccentric and truth stretcher.

But he was politically naive to criticise even a relatively minor component of the CCP/PLA machine(financial authority with ANT listing).

He “disappeared” for 3 months and ANT got smoked from its imminent largest IPO ever in China.

Play ball with CCP/PLA and you can billionaire to your hearts content.

Naively go off message and you get Soylent Green’d.

Commercial competition in China is utterly ruthless. To be honest, most westerners are simply unwilling to put in the work to compete to the same level of 24/7 ruthlessness as Mainland Chinese entrepreneurs.

Most in the west have had it good for a fairly long time. There’s a reason why 1st generation legal immigrants to the US are over represented in entrepreneurial success. Because it’s easy(from their relative previous environment).

In China, every young adult has parents who lived thru the unequalled gross quantity horrors of the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution.

They don’t ever want to go back. That motivation can’t be bought.

The CCP/PLA have determined 10 specific future focused commercial categories they want to dominate and are willing to throw R&D money at them.

Much like the US did in the 50’s-80’s with DARPA R&D.

When dominant winners emerge, the CCP/PLA will be sure to inject cadres where appropriate to build a CCP/PLA aligned commercial attack array.

I’ve written before my thoughts on digital superplatforms.

While FAANG+(Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft+) are busy fighting each other and the US government, the Chinese BATH+(Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huewai, Meituan+) and the CCP/PLA are much more closely aligned like Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, Space Force combined arms cross domain operations.

China is messy.

But they are aligned to CCP/PLA Three Warfares mission command.

 

[Picanha]

Take a look at this list:

List of largest Chinese companies - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

All state owned with secretive business numbers. This all just doesn't add up in my book.

In Germany it is even omitted that by far most Chinese companies are state controlled. Just now they are waking up and realizing it. Also all those fake subsidies to aquire foreign know how.

All those huge subsidised companies. Must be enormous expensive to maintain them.

 

[Flagg]

I once read, can't remember where anymore, that:

A state leeching off of a liberal and free society always prevails above the state leeching off of a supressed society.

Future will tell if the authoritarian capitalistic model can survive.


I am very sceptical in the case of China because it is also coupled with the masses well being. The wish of total control of the party. And political elements steering developments and giving orders.


The opening point of falsifying eceonomic data is just an indicator of things to come.

Right now the Regime in China is leeching off of the free societies. Hence the huge growth. But can they sustain growth and spur useful innovation without the outside input? And is it effective?

Heck you can't even watch Netflix in China out of the CCPs fear of insurrection because, watching "enemy" TV.

I don't think they are incapable but many factors tend to make it unsustainable. They can build spaceships if you order them to for example.

On the other hand their state companies sometimes take forever to bring (top notch) products to market

Just as an example if the CRRC has outsubsidised and outsripped all competition of their technology and is the sole provider of rolling stock on earth? Can you imagine that?

The CCP made a smart move in using the globalisation to offset those disadvantages. The rest of the world is used as a motor of competetion in a way.

Their system would not work in a closed environment.


So back to CRRC which Innovation would there come of then? Some apparatschiks would settle down and decide? Or will one Elon Musk type pursuit his vision? What is more probable?


Those large CCP companies are already heavy on employees and don't work on accurate numbers. Because there is always eth helping hand in the shadow. (And pressure to deliver nice numbers) So it can be kept up what long would have gone bankrupt in the West.

All this is financed and buffered with distorted market access to your competitors.

No offence, but I don’t think you understand exactly how much has changed with China in the last 25 years, and especially the last 5 in the digital economy.

For example, all major innovation in retail technology has come out of China in the last 5 years. All of it. China has literally kept right past us.

It’s not Amazon(my former employer), it’s China. No joke and no exaggeration. If you want to learn e-commerce retail technology, go to China.

The west is literally years behind China in some categories.

Yup…..China still can’t build a decent commercial jet or a Ford class carrier.

They are woefully behind in turbine technology, and hopefully it stays that way.

But we have been here before.

Old B&W American sitcoms from the 50’s/60’s joked about Made in Japan as a very bad thing, until it wasn’t in the 70’s and onwards.

Same with China.

Is it possible China could collapse with the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union?

Perhaps. They certainly need to continuously deliver on quality of life and standard of living improvements. And deal with a fast aging population.

But their strategy is Three Warfares(economic, political, lawfare), not kinetics, which supports national strategy and improved outcomes for Chinese citizens.

This is most certainly not the Cold War.

The Soviet Union was a military threat, but never an economic threat.

China is an economic threat to the US led world order.

It is a competition between network competing value propositions.

 

[Picanha]

I’m not sure if we are having the same conversation(legit, no offence).

Things work differently in China.

It’s not an excuse or “this time is different” empty/silly justificationas we often hear with each investment bubble in the West.

There are now more legit billionaires in China than the US.

Control is a relative thing. Controlling equity? That’s the entrepreneurs. Controlling national objectives/narratives? Thats the CCP/PLA.

Jack Ma seems like a very good human being(based in many diverse individual experiences with him) if a bit of an eccentric and truth stretcher.

But he was politically naive to criticise even a relatively minor component of the CCP/PLA machine(financial authority with ANT listing).

He “disappeared” for 3 months and ANT got smoked from its imminent largest IPO ever in China.

Play ball with CCP/PLA and you can billionaire to your hearts content.

Naively go off message and you get Soylent Green’d.

Commercial competition in China is utterly ruthless. To be honest, most westerners are simply unwilling to put in the work to compete to the same level of 24/7 ruthlessness as Mainland Chinese entrepreneurs.

Most in the west have had it good for a fairly long time. There’s a reason why 1st generation legal immigrants to the US are over represented in entrepreneurial success. Because it’s easy(from their relative previous environment).

In China, every young adult has parents who lived thru the unequalled gross quantity horrors of the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution.

They don’t ever want to go back. That motivation can’t be bought.

The CCP/PLA have determined 10 specific future focused commercial categories they want to dominate and are willing to throw R&D money at them.

Much like the US did in the 50’s-80’s with DARPA R&D.

When dominant winners emerge, the CCP/PLA will be sure to inject cadres where appropriate to build a CCP/PLA aligned commercial attack array.

I’ve written before my thoughts on digital superplatforms.

While FAANG+(Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft+) are busy fighting each other and the US government, the Chinese BATH+(Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huewai, Meituan+) and the CCP/PLA are much more closely aligned like Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, Space Force combined arms cross domain operations.

China is messy.

But they are aligned to CCP/PLA Three Warfares mission command.

But one fundamental difference is that he US attracted smart and willing People to work for them. I've never heard teh same for China. Most people I know are glad to leave.


And the Jack Ma exampe is exactly what I mean. I wouldn't have a problem if the Chinese economy was built (more) on an entrepreneural foundation.

As this would have led to other forces gaining power and limiting the CCPs grip on the nation.

What the "West" ( wrongly) expected.

An other example illustarting the fallacity of this argument would have been Nazi Germanys economy also totally free but highly aligned.

Anyhow no matter how you turn it the CCP won't allow you to go past a certain point as it has to control everything.

And I agree that the past experiences of poverty are a huge driving force though. But is it enough? Or isn't it just a "negative" stimulus? Compared to one born out of personal drive to achieve something?

 

[Flagg]

Take a look at this list:

List of largest Chinese companies - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

All state owned with secretive business numbers. This all just doesn't add up in my book.

In Germany it is even omitted that by far most Chinese companies are state controlled. Just now they are waking up and realizing it. Also all those fake subsidies to aquire foreign know how.

All those huge subsidised companies. Must be enormous expensive to maintain them.

Make no mistake, there is likely to be a tsunami of bad loans at the local and regional level likely tied to CCP local/regional party mandarin corruption.

And quiet possibly the same with legacy state owned enterprise privatisation.

But it’s worth putting it in context with Chinese mobile payment data which is much more accurate and simply staggering in volume and velocity.

Maybe look at a few of these outfits as having cooked books. A clogged artery or two. But the majority of the vascular system(staggering mobile payment data) is healthy and flowing freely.

Here’s a suggestion. If you find 5 credible stories that support China having dangerously cooked books.

Find 5 credible stories of things like China’s staggeringly huge payment data To put it all in context.

China’s mobile payments have grown to approx $66 trillion. It’s insane.

 

[Picanha]

No offence, but I don’t think you understand exactly how much has changed with China in the last 25 years, and especially the last 5 in the digital economy.

For example, all major innovation in retail technology has come out of China in the last 5 years. All of it. China has literally kept right past us.

It’s not Amazon(my former employer), it’s China. No joke and no exaggeration. If you want to learn e-commerce retail technology, go to China.

The west is literally years behind China in some categories.

Yup…..China still can’t build a decent commercial jet or a Ford class carrier.

They are woefully behind in turbine technology, and hopefully it stays that way.

But we have been here before.

Old B&W American sitcoms from the 50’s/60’s joked about Made in Japan as a very bad thing, until it wasn’t in the 70’s and onwards.

Same with China.

Is it possible China could collapse with the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union?

Perhaps. They certainly need to continuously deliver on quality of life and standard of living improvements. And deal with a fast aging population.

But their strategy is Three Warfares(economic, political, lawfare), not kinetics, which supports national strategy and improved outcomes for Chinese citizens.

This is most certainly not the Cold War.

The Soviet Union was a military threat, but never an economic threat.

China is an economic threat to the US led world order.

It is a competition between network competing value propositions.

I see I'll have to dig into it. But what I mean is not that they aren't able to produce or invent technology. I am questioning the driving factor behind it and if it is superiour, more efficient, more sustainable compared to the rest of the world.

 

[Flagg]

But one fundamental difference is that he US attracted smart and willing People to work for them. I've never heard teh same for China. Most people I know are glad to leave.


And the Jack Ma exampe is exactly what I mean. I wouldn't have a problem if the Chinese economy was built (more) on an entrepreneural foundation.

As this would have led to other forces gaining power and limiting the CCPs grip on the nation.

What the "West" ( wrongly) expected.

An other example illustarting the fallacity of this argument would have been Nazi Germanys economy also totally free but highly aligned.

Anyhow no matter how you turn it the CCP won't allow you to go past a certain point as it has to control everything.

And I agree that the past experiences of poverty are a huge driving force though. But is it enough? Or isn't it just a "negative" stimulus? Compared to one born out of personal drive to achieve something?

I agree that “all things being equal” many from China choose the US.

But many of them have the means to keep a foot in both camps.

Kind of like a two way life bias analogy.

While the CCP/PLA are in many ways Nazi like, especially when it comes to government continuity responsible for the worlds biggest industrial scale genocide.

But when it comes to entrepreneurship, the Nazi comparison is inaccurate and dangerous.

We will have to agree to disagree on the control bit. I believe you are talking more doctrinally/philosoptically rather tham practically/operationally.

You don’t become an entrepreneurial billionaire by accident or by pissing off government and making oneself a target. Everyone who gets big enough winds up on the political radar in some shape or form. Regardless of country. Everyone plays ball with government everywhere when you get big enough.

Almost all of my mainland Chinese classmates at Stanford are in Mainland China. As are a few Caucasian commercial mercenaries as well.

They all hold their tongues and keep counting their money.

 

[Flagg]

I see I'll have to dig into it. But what I mean is not that they aren't able to produce or invent technology. I am questioning the driving factor behind it and if it is superiour, more efficient, more sustainable compared to the rest of the world.

Huawei 5G is just one example of where the Chinese have the lead.

Granted, much of the early race was Huawei/MSS stealing tech from Cisco, Alcatel, Juniter without the R&D bills.

But now they are spending far more on R&D than their western counterparts with a complicit CCP/PLA government partner.

Refer to my previous comments about Combined arms/Cross domain competition.

We fight each other, they outcompete us.