Politics South China Sea Thread
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The West had better think carefully about how it would handle China imposing a nominally civil quarantine on Taiwan, because that’s the tactic that increasingly looks like an opening move for Beijing in taking control of the island.
A quarantine, imposing limited controls on access to the island, offered strong advantages for China even before Taiwan said in October that a blockade, surrounding it with forces to cut off all access, would be an act of war. Taiwan’s statement means China is even more likely to choose quarantine as a first step.
This use of the word ‘quarantine’ was coined in an important Center for Strategic and International Studies report last year. The authors foresaw that the Chinese government might ban only certain types of goods from entering Taiwan, or it could forbid ships from using a certain port. The measures would be enforced by nominally non-military forces, such as the China Coastguard.
Conceivably, China could see whether it could get away once with a quarantine action, then, noting success in asserting its authority, do it again and gradually tighten restrictions until they turned into a blockade—salami slicing, as it does in so many areas of international affairs.
First among the inherent advantages of quarantine for Beijing is that, unlike more warlike action, it brings no commitment to go all the way, to conquer or be defeated. It would raise no great expectation among the highly nationalist Chinese people of imminent conquest of Taiwan. So if the measure met stiff resistance, the Chinese Communist Party could back away from it, declaring that some civil administrative objective had been achieved.
Yet forcing it to back down would be difficult for Taiwan and its friends, which is another advantage of the quarantine tactic. They would have to escalate with warships and possibly armed force to stop a China Coast Guard ship from intercepting a freighter, for example. This would put Taiwan and the West in the unfortunate position of looking like the initiators of military conflict. On the other hand, if Taiwan and the West did nothing, and intimidated shipping companies mostly went along with the quarantine, China’s narrative that it had control over Taiwan would be strengthened.
Taiwanese Minister of National Defence Wellington Koo said in October that Taiwan would consider a blockade an act of war and would respond on a war footing after massive Chinese military drills were held near the island.
A quarantine would probably cause little or no disruption to China’s own trade, whereas the risk of military confrontation in a blockade could frighten ship owners into avoiding the Taiwan Strait and Chinese ports near it. This would severely affect China’s economy: most shipments that pass through the Taiwan Strait are Chinese imports and exports
A quarantine would probably involve no dramatic announcements from Beijing. Instead, China could claim it merely needed to expand customs procedures in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters where China believes it has jurisdiction. This might involve the Chinese coast guard carrying out inspections of ships and boarding non-Chinese vessels to inspect their paperwork. Vessels that refuse to comply could be forced to turn back or even be hit with water cannons. The coast guard could then restrict vital imports that enter Taiwan, such as energy products. This could cripple the Taiwanese economy and have the effect of shattering the Taiwanese people’s morale and willingness to resist Beijing.
Throughout 2024, China’s coast guard increased intrusive patrols in waters around Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen archipelago, which is close to China.
In a possible early sign of a quarantine tactic, China’s coast guard in February 2024 intercepted a Taiwanese sight-seeing ferry that was sailing around Kinmen’s main island during a period when cross-strait tensions were running high. Chinese coast guard officers boarded the Taiwanese boat and asked to inspect the documentation of the crew, before disembarking a while later. Then, in mid-May, the Chinese state media outlet China Daily said, ‘In the future, this ‘Kinmen model’ of law enforcement inspections can also be applied to Matsu and Penghu islands, and even the entire Taiwan Strait.’
Among the difficult options for Taiwanese and Western response might be beefing up of Taiwan’s own coast guard, which is vastly smaller than China’s, and training it to respond to such tactics.
The US could also impose financial sanctions on China if it imposed a quarantine and persuade other democracies to join in. In doing so, the West would be hitting back at China using tactics that, like China’s quarantine, fall short of war. This might also meet the incoming Trump administration’s goal of weakening China, which it views as an economic competitor.
Whatever the response will be, plans are needed. Quarantine is so attractive a measure for China that Taiwan and its friends must be prepared.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/l...s Chinas likely first move in subduing Taiwan
The West had better think carefully about how it would handle China imposing a nominally civil quarantine on Taiwan, because that’s the tactic that increasingly looks like an opening move for Beijing in taking control of the island.
A quarantine, imposing limited controls on access to the island, offered strong advantages for China even before Taiwan said in October that a blockade, surrounding it with forces to cut off all access, would be an act of war. Taiwan’s statement means China is even more likely to choose quarantine as a first step.
This use of the word ‘quarantine’ was coined in an important Center for Strategic and International Studies report last year. The authors foresaw that the Chinese government might ban only certain types of goods from entering Taiwan, or it could forbid ships from using a certain port. The measures would be enforced by nominally non-military forces, such as the China Coastguard.
Conceivably, China could see whether it could get away once with a quarantine action, then, noting success in asserting its authority, do it again and gradually tighten restrictions until they turned into a blockade—salami slicing, as it does in so many areas of international affairs.
First among the inherent advantages of quarantine for Beijing is that, unlike more warlike action, it brings no commitment to go all the way, to conquer or be defeated. It would raise no great expectation among the highly nationalist Chinese people of imminent conquest of Taiwan. So if the measure met stiff resistance, the Chinese Communist Party could back away from it, declaring that some civil administrative objective had been achieved.
Yet forcing it to back down would be difficult for Taiwan and its friends, which is another advantage of the quarantine tactic. They would have to escalate with warships and possibly armed force to stop a China Coast Guard ship from intercepting a freighter, for example. This would put Taiwan and the West in the unfortunate position of looking like the initiators of military conflict. On the other hand, if Taiwan and the West did nothing, and intimidated shipping companies mostly went along with the quarantine, China’s narrative that it had control over Taiwan would be strengthened.
Taiwanese Minister of National Defence Wellington Koo said in October that Taiwan would consider a blockade an act of war and would respond on a war footing after massive Chinese military drills were held near the island.
A quarantine would probably cause little or no disruption to China’s own trade, whereas the risk of military confrontation in a blockade could frighten ship owners into avoiding the Taiwan Strait and Chinese ports near it. This would severely affect China’s economy: most shipments that pass through the Taiwan Strait are Chinese imports and exports
A quarantine would probably involve no dramatic announcements from Beijing. Instead, China could claim it merely needed to expand customs procedures in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters where China believes it has jurisdiction. This might involve the Chinese coast guard carrying out inspections of ships and boarding non-Chinese vessels to inspect their paperwork. Vessels that refuse to comply could be forced to turn back or even be hit with water cannons. The coast guard could then restrict vital imports that enter Taiwan, such as energy products. This could cripple the Taiwanese economy and have the effect of shattering the Taiwanese people’s morale and willingness to resist Beijing.
Throughout 2024, China’s coast guard increased intrusive patrols in waters around Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen archipelago, which is close to China.
In a possible early sign of a quarantine tactic, China’s coast guard in February 2024 intercepted a Taiwanese sight-seeing ferry that was sailing around Kinmen’s main island during a period when cross-strait tensions were running high. Chinese coast guard officers boarded the Taiwanese boat and asked to inspect the documentation of the crew, before disembarking a while later. Then, in mid-May, the Chinese state media outlet China Daily said, ‘In the future, this ‘Kinmen model’ of law enforcement inspections can also be applied to Matsu and Penghu islands, and even the entire Taiwan Strait.’
Among the difficult options for Taiwanese and Western response might be beefing up of Taiwan’s own coast guard, which is vastly smaller than China’s, and training it to respond to such tactics.
The US could also impose financial sanctions on China if it imposed a quarantine and persuade other democracies to join in. In doing so, the West would be hitting back at China using tactics that, like China’s quarantine, fall short of war. This might also meet the incoming Trump administration’s goal of weakening China, which it views as an economic competitor.
Whatever the response will be, plans are needed. Quarantine is so attractive a measure for China that Taiwan and its friends must be prepared.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/l...s Chinas likely first move in subduing Taiwan
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I have a feeling something is going to happen in the not too distant future. Russian and Chinese vessels have been damaging more comms cables and pipelines both in Europe and Asia in the past week. One is an accident, two is extremely unlikely, anything more = on purpose.
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The Trump administration seems to have offered TSMC of Taiwan to operate the factories of the Intel Corporation in a joint venture. Intel has been running at a multi-billion a year loss for years now because they neglected to innovate and their management is a mess.
TSMC has expressed interest in the idea.
Could be interesting from a US strategic POV if modern (but not the most modern) TSMC chips could be made outside of Taiwan so a blockade or occupation of the island would have less of an impact on availability, especially for the military sector.
Taiwan has to walk a tight rope of remaining essential for chip production to ensure US military support without putting all of it's eggs in one basket to where it's allies can't sustain the war over the island without the vulnerable production sites.
TSMC has expressed interest in the idea.
Could be interesting from a US strategic POV if modern (but not the most modern) TSMC chips could be made outside of Taiwan so a blockade or occupation of the island would have less of an impact on availability, especially for the military sector.
Taiwan has to walk a tight rope of remaining essential for chip production to ensure US military support without putting all of it's eggs in one basket to where it's allies can't sustain the war over the island without the vulnerable production sites.
The Cook Islands has signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" agreement with China without disclosing the contents with New Zealand prior to ratification. Cook Islands Foreign Minister Tingika Elikana confirmed to RNZ on Saturday morning the deal with China had been signed.
While the agreement has been long-signalled, the manner in which it is being concluded, as well as the specifics of its contents, have concerned Wellington. Prior to signing, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown said he was aware of the strong interest in the outcomes of his visit to China.
They have had loads of support over the years from NZ and dual citizens. Like Macron says. No gratitude at all.
While the agreement has been long-signalled, the manner in which it is being concluded, as well as the specifics of its contents, have concerned Wellington. Prior to signing, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown said he was aware of the strong interest in the outcomes of his visit to China.
They have had loads of support over the years from NZ and dual citizens. Like Macron says. No gratitude at all.
China says US has 'gravely backpedaled' on Taiwan
China’s Foreign Ministry has taken issue with a revised U.S. government fact sheet that removed a line on American opposition to independence for Taiwan.
apnews.com
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Highly provocative and unprofessional action by the Chinese military has again put the Albanese government’s approach to relations with Beijing under pressure. So has deployment of a powerful Chinese naval flotilla close to Australia.
China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and beyond make it much harder for the government to stabilise the relationship with Beijing—under its formula of ‘cooperate where we can, disagree where we must, and engage in the national interest’.
On 11 February, a Chinese air force J-16 fighter released flares just 30 metres in front of an Australian P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft, in what the Department of Defence has described as an ‘unsafe and unprofessional’ interaction. Such interactions with China’s military are now becoming normal. The flare release, reported on 13 February, was the fifth known incident of unsafe behavior by the Chinese military towards the Australian Defence Force since 2022.
It should reinforce the need for caution by the current, and indeed any future Australian government, in approaching its relationship with China.
In another statement on the same day the department said a Chinese naval task group was operating in Australia’s northeastern maritime approaches. Among the ships was a Jiangkai-class frigate, a Fuchi-class replenishment vessel and a Type 055 Renhai cruiser.
Deployment of the cruiser is important. It is likely the first ship of its class to have operated so close to Australia. Renhais are among the most formidable warships afloat. Each has 112 vertical-launch missile cells and can carry a large load of weapons, including anti-ship cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, torpedoes and anti-submarine weapons. Although it’s not yet clear whether China is incorporating land-attack cruise missiles in the Renhai class, room for them could easily be found in a vessel with so many launch cells.
It is important to emphasise that the flotilla is operating within international law, just as it’s important to note that Australian warships and aircraft in the South China Sea operate in international waters and airspace—as they have done for decades.
The two developments announced on 13 February send important signals regarding China’s future military posture. Firstly, deployment of the cruiser-led flotilla sends a message to Australia that China can and will project power and presence into our maritime approaches. As the Chinese navy works towards becoming a global force, it will continue to perform more missions beyond the First Island Chain, the string of islands from Japan to Indonesia. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, we have seen the Chinese navy operate off the West Australian coast and through the Torres Strait in 2022, sit off north-eastern Australia during the Talisman Sabre military exercise in 2023 and sail a Renhai and an advanced destroyer through the Coral Sea on their way to Vanuatu in 2024.
Moreover, the Chinese military seems to be applying its unsafe and unprofessional South China Sea tactics closer to Australia. Indeed, its first publicly reported unsafe incident in relation to Australia occurred in our northern approaches on 17 February 2022.
This global ambition by the Chinese navy means that the Department of Defence cannot assume that Australia will always have a degree of isolation across a strategic moat, epitomised by the notional sea-air gap that an adversary supposedly cannot cross. The Renhai deployment reinforces the shrinking relevance of geographic isolation in Australian defence planning. The ship could, in a crisis, hold at risk any Royal Australian Navy warships within range of its YJ-18 anti-ship missiles, and Royal Australian Air Force aircraft could be threatened by its HHQ-9 air-defence missiles.
Australia must expect more aggression by Chinese fighter pilots against RAAF maritime patrol aircraft in international airspace over the South China Sea. Beijing has a reputation for such provocations, especially against US allies. Defence needs to think about a response if an incident leads to the loss of an aircraft and crew or forces them to land on a Chinese-occupied feature in the South China Sea.
In relation to the new Trump administration, China probably wants to keep its powder dry, seeking to minimise an impending trade conflict and to manage a deteriorating economy that relies heavily on exports. However, we should expect that China’s military will continue to target smaller countries, such as Australia, to end their long-standing military presence in the First Island Chain.
Thus, even though China’s military has recently softened its approach towards the United States, it continues to target the militaries of smaller countries exercising freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. In addition to Australia, Canada, the Netherlands and the Philippines have all been subjected to unsafe actions from China’s military in the past 18 months.
Notice the contrast between how China treats foreign military forces operating in its vicinity and how others treat China when it approaches them. China engages in dangerous intimidation and invariably blames the other party.
But when China deploys a powerful naval flotilla close to Australia, Canberra’s response is cautious and subdued. After all, there’s no indication that the Chinese ships were not in international waters.
‘Australia respects the rights of all states to exercise freedom of navigation and overflight in accordance with international law, just as we expect others to respect Australia’s right to do the same,’ the department said.
But it must be asked whether anyone in the Chinese leadership listens to Australia’s polite statements? These incidents over the South China Sea keep on happening, suggesting that our current approach to deterring future incidents simply isn’t effective.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/c...sends ships to Australias northern approaches
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The Philippine Coast Guard condemned "dangerous" manoeuvres by a Chinese Navy helicopter Tuesday as it flew within three metres (10 feet) of a surveillance flight carrying a group of journalists over the contested Scarborough Shoal.
An AFP photographer on the flight described seeing the helicopter tail the plane before drawing near the left wing, close enough to see personnel aboard filming them.
The helicopter had been "as close as three metres" to the fisheries bureau aircraft, the coast guard said in a statement. The plane had been flying about 213 metres above the water on a mission to observe Chinese vessels in the area.
"Around 0839 hours, a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLA-Navy) helicopter ... performed dangerous flight maneuvers towards the BFAR aircraft. This reckless action posed a serious risk to the safety of the pilots and passengers during the MDA flight," the coast guard statement said.
The Scarborough Shoal -- a triangular chain of reefs and rocks in the South China Sea -- has been a flashpoint between the countries since China seized it from the Philippines in 2012.
The incident comes less than a week after Australia rebuked Beijing for "unsafe" military conduct, accusing a Chinese fighter of releasing flares within 30 metres of a surveillance plane patrolling above the South China Sea.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman at the time said the Australian plane had "deliberately intruded into the airspace around China's Xisha Islands", Beijing's name for the Paracel Islands, which Vietnam and Taiwan also claim.
China claims the South China Sea in almost its entirety despite an international ruling in 2016 concluding this has no legal basis.
The Scarborough Shoal, which lies 240 kilometres west of the Philippines' main island of Luzon and nearly 900 kilometres from the nearest major Chinese land mass of Hainan, has been the site of repeated confrontations as Manila has resupplied Filipino fishermen in the area.
In December, the Philippines said the Chinese coast guard fired water cannon and "sideswiped" a government fisheries department vessel.
Manila released a video appearing to show a Chinese coast guard ship firing a torrent of water at the BRP Datu Pagbuaya.
Other footage apparently taken from the Philippine ship showed its crew shouting "Collision! Collision!" as the much larger Chinese vessel nears its right-hand side before crashing into it.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...d-slams-dangerous-china-helicopter-manoeuvres
An AFP photographer on the flight described seeing the helicopter tail the plane before drawing near the left wing, close enough to see personnel aboard filming them.
The helicopter had been "as close as three metres" to the fisheries bureau aircraft, the coast guard said in a statement. The plane had been flying about 213 metres above the water on a mission to observe Chinese vessels in the area.
"Around 0839 hours, a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLA-Navy) helicopter ... performed dangerous flight maneuvers towards the BFAR aircraft. This reckless action posed a serious risk to the safety of the pilots and passengers during the MDA flight," the coast guard statement said.
The Scarborough Shoal -- a triangular chain of reefs and rocks in the South China Sea -- has been a flashpoint between the countries since China seized it from the Philippines in 2012.
The incident comes less than a week after Australia rebuked Beijing for "unsafe" military conduct, accusing a Chinese fighter of releasing flares within 30 metres of a surveillance plane patrolling above the South China Sea.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman at the time said the Australian plane had "deliberately intruded into the airspace around China's Xisha Islands", Beijing's name for the Paracel Islands, which Vietnam and Taiwan also claim.
China claims the South China Sea in almost its entirety despite an international ruling in 2016 concluding this has no legal basis.
The Scarborough Shoal, which lies 240 kilometres west of the Philippines' main island of Luzon and nearly 900 kilometres from the nearest major Chinese land mass of Hainan, has been the site of repeated confrontations as Manila has resupplied Filipino fishermen in the area.
In December, the Philippines said the Chinese coast guard fired water cannon and "sideswiped" a government fisheries department vessel.
Manila released a video appearing to show a Chinese coast guard ship firing a torrent of water at the BRP Datu Pagbuaya.
Other footage apparently taken from the Philippine ship showed its crew shouting "Collision! Collision!" as the much larger Chinese vessel nears its right-hand side before crashing into it.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...d-slams-dangerous-china-helicopter-manoeuvres
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and our Euro's and dollars are funding all of this... and continuing to, as well. its insane.
should have waggled the wings a bit "oopps" little bit of turbulence there.... helo rotors can be more easily damaged than the tip of the wing of a plane, to become unable to continue to fly... plane probably would have been fine.... oopps, dont worry, we will mark the coordinates, your china coast guard can come and get you, maybe next time keep a safe standoff distance....
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The coercive actions of the Chinese military decreased every time the Philippines conducted exercises with other countries in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), the Philippine Navy said on Tuesday.
“We have noted a marked decrease in the illegal and coercive actions of the [People’s Liberation Army Navy] each time there is a multilateral or bilateral maritime cooperative activity,” Philippine Navy spokesperson for WPS Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad said in a press briefing.
“And expect that there will be more of these activities to come in the future,” he added.
The latest maritime cooperative activity (MCA) in the WPS was with the French forces on February 21, in which no Chinese vessels were seen near the venue of the drills.
“During the conduct of the MCA with the French Navy and the Armed Forces, there were no PLA Navy, Coast Guard, or maritime militia noted within close proximity. They were at a distance of more than 120 nautical miles away,” Trinidad said.
Asked about Trinidad’s statement, the Chinese Embassy in Manila said, “In China, we have an expression to describe the PH Navy sentiment you provide, Mr. Q's Syndrome of Mental Victory.”
“Put it simply, 'someone assumes that he or she is always right and victorious,’” it added.
Tensions continue as Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion of annual shipborne commerce, including parts claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei.
Parts of the South China Sea that fall within Philippine territory have been renamed by the government as West Philippine Sea to reinforce the country’s claim.
The West Philippine Sea refers to the maritime areas on the western side of the Philippine archipelago including Luzon Sea and the waters around, within and adjacent to the Kalayaan Island Group and Bajo de Masinloc.
In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines over China's claims in the South China Sea, saying that it had "no legal basis."
China has refused to recognize the decision.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/top...-during-wps-drills-of-ph-other-nations/story/
“We have noted a marked decrease in the illegal and coercive actions of the [People’s Liberation Army Navy] each time there is a multilateral or bilateral maritime cooperative activity,” Philippine Navy spokesperson for WPS Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad said in a press briefing.
“And expect that there will be more of these activities to come in the future,” he added.
The latest maritime cooperative activity (MCA) in the WPS was with the French forces on February 21, in which no Chinese vessels were seen near the venue of the drills.
“During the conduct of the MCA with the French Navy and the Armed Forces, there were no PLA Navy, Coast Guard, or maritime militia noted within close proximity. They were at a distance of more than 120 nautical miles away,” Trinidad said.
Asked about Trinidad’s statement, the Chinese Embassy in Manila said, “In China, we have an expression to describe the PH Navy sentiment you provide, Mr. Q's Syndrome of Mental Victory.”
“Put it simply, 'someone assumes that he or she is always right and victorious,’” it added.
Tensions continue as Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion of annual shipborne commerce, including parts claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei.
Parts of the South China Sea that fall within Philippine territory have been renamed by the government as West Philippine Sea to reinforce the country’s claim.
The West Philippine Sea refers to the maritime areas on the western side of the Philippine archipelago including Luzon Sea and the waters around, within and adjacent to the Kalayaan Island Group and Bajo de Masinloc.
In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines over China's claims in the South China Sea, saying that it had "no legal basis."
China has refused to recognize the decision.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/top...-during-wps-drills-of-ph-other-nations/story/
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6D chess.
I wonder what die Trump-Männer will think after 6-12 months when inflation starts biting their asses.
‘Chaotic’ Trump gives China’s Xi global relations ‘advantage’: ex-Australian PM
Malcolm Turnbull said Trump’s erratic behaviour towards allies creates an opportunity for China’s Xi Jinping, who presents a more consistent and respectful alternative.
www.scmp.com
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