Politics South China Sea Thread

[Junglejim]

The US economy is dependent on US consumers. The CCP economy is dependent on US consumers and US investment...and imported energy and food.

And US consumers consume products made in what country again? Now add to the fact that the other countries would also increase their goods to come up with losses from their main partner being destroyed. Never mind the job losses from American consumers when the Chinese economy is destroyed.

And no, the Chinese is not reliant in the American economy. ASEAN and other asian countries actually contribute more to its economy than the US. Hell the EU, is a bigger trading partner to China than the US.

 

[Chazman]

And US consumers consume products made in what country again? Now add to the fact that the other countries would also increase their goods to come up with losses from their main partner being destroyed. Never mind the job losses from American consumers when the Chinese economy is destroyed.

And no, the Chinese is not reliant in the American economy. ASEAN and other asian countries actually contribute more to its economy than the US. Hell the EU, is a bigger trading partner to China than the US.

We were talking about a war, right? The CCP could say goodbye to trading or investment from the US, EU and ASEAN. Hell, all those countries would be enforcing a trade blockade on the CCP.

You think China is short on energy and food now, just imagine if US/EU/UK/ASEAN attack subs were keeping anything from going in or out. The CCP would have a problem keeping internal control - which is what they fear most. Taiwan would be the least of their concern at that point.

 

[Junglejim]

We were talking about a war, right? The CCP could say goodbye to trading or investment from the US, EU and ASEAN. Hell, all those countries would be enforcing a trade blockade on the CCP.

You think China is short on energy and food now, just imagine if US/EU/UK/ASEAN attack subs were keeping anything from going in or out. The CCP would have a problem keeping internal control - which is what they fear most. Taiwan would be the least of their concern at that point.

I am saying it wont lead up to war as non can afford it. China made sure of that. Call it greed or a case of bad foresight, but the US helped that big fat genie out of the bottle and it cant put it back. Should have just left that country in famine, instead you not only traded with it, you even gave the country "most favored" trading status until China became what it is today.

 

[Flagg]

And US consumers consume products made in what country again? Now add to the fact that the other countries would also increase their goods to come up with losses from their main partner being destroyed. Never mind the job losses from American consumers when the Chinese economy is destroyed.

And no, the Chinese is not reliant in the American economy. ASEAN and other asian countries actually contribute more to its economy than the US. Hell the EU, is a bigger trading partner to China than the US.

In some respects they are.

China is reliant on Taiwanese semiconductors, as is the rest of the world.

Those TSMC chip fabs are chocker full of US and Japanese chip fab equipment and US IP.

So while China isn’t directly reliant on the US, they are certainly indirectly reliant on the US.

 

[Junglejim]

In some respects they are.

China is reliant on Taiwanese semiconductors, as is the rest of the world.

Those TSMC chip fabs are chocker full of US and Japanese chip fab equipment and US IP.

So while China isn’t directly reliant on the US, they are certainly indirectly reliant on the US.

In that way I agree with you, but in the context of my convo with Chazman its not. If its war and they take Taiwan, then those chip fabs are in their hands. However, I dont think a war will happen in Taiwan due to a war with China will be costly and will bring down other peoples economy. He wanted the Chinese economy destroyed and blockaded. Well, China can do the same and bring down ships and aircraft entering Taiwan.

Overflying Taiwan you will notice 2 things:

1. How small Taiwan is
2. How close they are to the mainland.

It would be easier for China to screw with the world Chip supply than "allies" blockading China.

 

[morris]

Talking about war against China ...

Written in 1907 "The Unparalleled Invasion" is a science fiction story written by American author Jack London.

"The world awoke rather abruptly to its danger; but for over seventy years, unperceived, affairs had been shaping toward this very end."
The awakening of China .
After a time of disquiet, the idea was accepted that China was to be feared, not in war, but in commerce, demographic explosion and other little "fantasies", including biological warfare as the ultimate answer - check.
Read this https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/1075/pg1075-images.html#page60

 

[Flagg]

In that way I agree with you, but in the context of my convo with Chazman its not. If its war and they take Taiwan, then those chip fabs are in their hands. However, I dont think a war will happen in Taiwan due to a war with China will be costly and will bring down other peoples economy. He wanted the Chinese economy destroyed and blockaded. Well, China can do the same and bring down ships and aircraft entering Taiwan.

Overflying Taiwan you will notice 2 things:

1. How small Taiwan is
2. How close they are to the mainland.

It would be easier for China to screw with the world Chip supply than "allies" blockading China.

I agree completely there will be no kinetic action against Taiwan by China.

And the main reason why that will not happen for the foreseeable future(circa 10 years) is that it would be virtually impossible for the PLA to sieze TSMC chip fabs in working order.

It’s not an exaggeration to say it would be the equivalent of Cabanatuan + Son Tay + Entebbe + Desert One + Moscow Theatre Siege + Beslan x1000.

Chip fans are the most expensive, complicated, important, and vulnerable factories in history.

If China could seize them and crank out chips the next day, China would own the US, so they would be instantly destroyed or sabotaged(hence the above).

And if we lose Taiwan’s TSMC fabs the world would be absolutely screwed(today’s chip supply chain issues times a bajillion).

It really is a case of digital mutually assured destruction deterrence.

 

[morris]

^^
Using abacus and slide rule is fun

 

[NZM305]

^^
Using abacus and slide rule is fun

Carburettors and points still work ?

 

[morris]

 

[Picanha]

And US consumers consume products made in what country again? Now add to the fact that the other countries would also increase their goods to come up with losses from their main partner being destroyed. Never mind the job losses from American consumers when the Chinese economy is destroyed.

And no, the Chinese is not reliant in the American economy. ASEAN and other asian countries actually contribute more to its economy than the US. Hell the EU, is a bigger trading partner to China than the US.

But its mostly simple products, not something irreplacable. The West would lose astonishingly little.

The EU has trade deficit of around 200 Bill. towards China the US a bit more. Other countries maybe similar. So its mostly China losing trade. Also all Western factories in China, will they continue to operate like Ford in Nazi Germany?

China produces only 5% of all chips worldwide. If you take quality into equation that goes down to 1 to 3%. Thats not world domination nor any position to leverage.

ASML of the Netherlands long stopped suppling high end Chip manufacturing equipment to China. No advanced chips either.

Add the a mentioned sea blockade, pretty unfavourable location to be in that case.

Lights go out pretty quick then.

 

[Junglejim]

Since the convo revolves around chips and saying that is the main thing that makes the global economy go round. Tell me which is harder for the allies to militarily blockade China or China to rain down missiles and destroy those chip plants in Taiwan to make sure that if their economy goes down, so will the rest of the planet? Mind you, you guys are talking about the economic destruction, hence, destruction of China. They wont stand and just watch it happen.

Mind you the US and its Western allies will have to travel across oceans for that blockade to happen, thats even if ASEAN and SK or Japan even would allow that to happen. That would be a big ask to convince the eastern nations to suffer just to teach China a lesson.

But lets stick to the goal post of just the economy, so you mean to tell me China disappearing will not bring down some of the EU's economy?

 

[Picanha]

Not as much as publicly perceived. Sure its a big loss nevertheless, but not a crippling one.

China going berzerk on Taiwan will not go down well in a global economy.

Well yes scorched earth policies are only sucessfull if no alternatives are found.

The CCP tightening its grip on companies in China doesnt help either.

Foreign companies employ millions of Chinese workers too. The other way round not so many, after leeching the technology few companies remain complete after a Chinese take over. A couple of years later many leave or are sacked due to production being moved to China

Mapping and recalibrating Europe’s economic interdependence with China

, Main findings and conclusions China’s rapid development and its central role as a driver of globalization have resulted in expanding economic ties with the EU over the past two decades. Between 2000 and 2019, the volume of trade expanded nearly eightfold to EUR 560 billion. China is now the...

merics.org

• Economic dependence also cuts both ways: China has much to lose from deteriorating relations with the EU, which is one of the largest foreign investors – and job-creators – in the country, as well as an important market and source of know-how.
• There are 103 product categories in electronics, chemical, minerals/metals, and pharmaceutical/medical products in which the EU has a critical strategic dependence on imports from China.
• The EU’s China policy should not be constrained by an overblown perception of economic vulnerability and build on its relative strengths.

The Taiwan adventure means the end of the CCP for various reasons. At huge costs for all involved.

But thats what makes these authoritarian regimes so dangerous.

They focus on such dogmatic topics and will use them to cover their demise.

Edit: A naval blockade could be performed successfully. But If the CCP is smart they will realize that its better to act so that none has to be established.

 

[Picanha]

Semiconductors: More U.S. Leverage, More Bad News For Beijing (Part 3)

China’s vulnerability in the semiconductor industry is acute. In the core production segments Beijing may imagine it can spend its way into competitiveness. But the weakness of their position extends to highly specialized supporting technology segments that are much harder for China to enter.

www.forbes.com

China’s vulnerability in the semiconductor industry is acute, rooted in its technological inadequacies in key parts of the value chain. This applies not just to the core production stages – where Beijing may plausibly imagine that it can spend its way into competitiveness with massive government investment (although so far this has not been successful). The weakness of the Chinese position extends to certain highly specialized supporting technologies, which would be much harder for China to enter. The Western control of semiconductor technology is stronger than many realize.

 

[Picanha]

I am saying it wont lead up to war as non can afford it. China made sure of that. Call it greed or a case of bad foresight, but the US helped that big fat genie out of the bottle and it cant put it back. Should have just left that country in famine, instead you not only traded with it, you even gave the country "most favored" trading status until China became what it is today.

Theres a German saying:

If its going to well for the donkey he decides to step in ice.

The change through commerce tactics took the wrong turn long ago.

Now the World needs protection from an orwellian mega empire in the making.

 

[Junglejim]

I actually agree on your points and this is why no economies or countries will be destroyed or put in the back burner anytime soon. What China is doing to Taiwan is playing the long game. It will slowly chip at Taiwan and build more supporters from within until it would be Taiwan that would be volunteering to get back in the fold.

If Taiwan exhausts its economy building a credible defense, then all the more better. This is why I think the US is racing to get Taiwan involved in the United Nations... it needs to be a sovereign state or else it will just be swallowed up by China.

 

[ao_sepia]

View attachment 345751

If PLA destroy Taiwan,I think they lost 1/3-1/2 of PLA!

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Rights NGO Amnesty International to close its Hong Kong offices citing security law | Hong Kong Free Press HKFP

Rights NGO Amnesty International says it will close its Hong Kong offices by the end of 2021. “This decision, made with a heavy heart, has been driven by Hong Kong’s national security law, which has made it effectively impossible for human rights organizations in Hong Kong to work freely and...

hongkongfp.com

 

[primer]

SO why would anyone voluntarily want to join the chinese nazi's ..better pensions?

 

[Chazman]

Shhhh, don't tell Joe Biden.

Intel is spending $20 billion to build two new chip plants in Arizona

Intel also said on Tuesday that it will act as a "foundry," or a manufacturing partner, for other chip companies.

www.cnbc.com