Oh, I have no doubt this is the plan. I even have no doubt Iran's at the Step 4 - you think. The reality of course, is just a tiny bit more complicated.
First, there is no "surrounding". There is Hamas and Hezbollah. And after the spanking Hezzies got in 2006, they have been conspicuously almost completely quite since then (here and there half-arsed "show of force" provocations notwithstanding). Having been literally decimated in the Syrian war, their capacity, let alone the will, to fight yet another suicidal war against Israel is highly questionable. We have absolutely no illusion BTW about their missile arsenal theoretical ability to inflict damage in Israel. It's just, if this threat materializes, there will be no South Lebanon. About this nobody has any illusions either - neither us, nor them. Moreover the "surrounding" made us stronger than ever - everything from peace agreements with Arab states (new arms markets, new investment, more political clout on international arena etc.) to even more strategic cooperation with Western nations (much of it behind the curtains for obvious reasons).
Second, no. There is simply no place for nuance here - just no. As for now Iran is borderline failed state, which is painfully obvious in every aspect - anything from absolutely abysmal inflation (what was it, about 50% in 2020..?), tragically pathetic handling of Covid, to selling yourself into virtual slavery to your future Chinese masters. All this BTW, when Israel in absolutely the best shape since its establishment. Just in recent recent years Israel surpassed in its nominal GDP PP almost all major European powers - France, UK...
Third, yeah... I have no doubt that all those cheap-ass drones and speed-boats can inflict some serous damage... in a short run. The problem, of course, which again is painfully obvious to everybody, is that after you have spent decades by funding all kind of Jihadists all over the world, no much investment have left to made into your forces. The simple reality is the Iranian conventional military is a paper tiger. Remember, Mardonius, Photoshop works much better on internet, than in the real life.
Fourth. That one made me genuinely chuckle. By hardened you mean, your S**t keep mysteriously blown up ever Tuesday and Thursday. Also, sometimes, on Wednesday too. All the while Mossad keeps walking in and out of your most protected facilities like it owns the place? Shouldn't the stage four have been materialized like couple of decades ago, no?
All of this is the hard reality of what's going on, not the Iranian version of that:
Speaking of Persian strategic thinking, mate - wonna see how it works against the Jewish mind combined with acute self-preservation instinct? The simple truth of it all, mate, we simply cannot afford to loose, and this is all. If
you have any self-preservation instinct you really should start seriously considering to F*** off...
Other than that, as Bender pointed out, we'll see.
