Politics Riots in Kazakhstan - jan 2022

[morris]

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[MartinLavin]

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That is actually interesting topic for discussion. Since start of the riots I haven't seen Nazarbaev himself or haven't read any of his statements. He is silent... There is ongoing rumor now that he died a few days ago and it wasn't made public yet, and all this mess is a attempt by Tokaev to remove Nazarbaev clanmen from positions of power.

 

[1645556315]

Some airlines (local and Russian) resumed operations from Nur-Sultan airport.

 

[MartinLavin]

Media report that former head of Kazakh Security service Masimov was arrested today for treason.

So now waiting for information if he is a Nazarbaev man. If he is then it pretty much confirms suspisions of an internal power struggle. All these reports from their president of "external" threats seem like a distraction.

 

[morris]

The peacekeeping military contingent of the Armed Forces of the Kyrgyz Republic 150 people, 8 units of armored and 11 units of automobile equipment left for the Republic of Kazakhstan.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

I love them Tigr armored cars.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

What about this one? It is supposed to be Kazakh protests coordinator in Ukraine.
View attachment 364270

Isn't the leader supposed to be Mukhtar Ablyazov. Since he said (a few days too late) he is the leader of opposition and protests in the republic.

 

[Иван Феоктистов]

In the photo, the deceased cadet of the (military) educational institution of Alma-Ata. Bitim M.E. fought against the radicals. The cadets of the Academy of the Border Service of the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan had to fight off an armed group with sapper shovels in their hands, which on 5/01/2022 tried to enter the territory of the educational institution. The radical protesters cut off the head of the academy cadet: the administration of Kazakhstan's President Tokayev has confirmed this.

Ahem. A military educational institution should have military weapons and ammunition. Why did they only have shovels? Perhaps the weapons were given only to commanders or senior students, because there were few of them. The commander of this guy also died, the head of the school was wounded and is in the hospital.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

That is actually interesting topic for discussion. Since start of the riots I haven't seen Nazarbaev himself or haven't read any of his statements. He is silent... There is ongoing rumor now that he died a few days ago and it wasn't made public yet, and all this mess is a attempt by Tokaev to remove Nazarbaev clanmen from positions of power.

Didn't some news outlet report he had "left the country" with his daughter (or was it his niece)?

 

[Иван Феоктистов]

Didn't some news outlet report he had "left the country" with his daughter (or was it his niece)?

The President said that Nazarbayev is in the country and has not left it.

 

[MartinLavin]

Yes, spokesman for Nazarbaev said he is ok and everything is normal. But I would still wait for Naz. to present himself to public.

 

[1645556315]

 

[morris]

Isn't the leader supposed to be Mukhtar Ablyazov. Since he said (a few days too late) he is the leader of opposition and protests in the republic.

A leader and a coordinator are two different functions. Also both of them are unconfirmed, they may be self appointed in order to get financial grants.

 

[Flagg]

In the photo, the deceased cadet of the (military) educational institution of Alma-Ata. Bitim M.E. fought against the radicals. The cadets of the Academy of the Border Service of the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan had to fight off an armed group with sapper shovels in their hands, which on 5/01/2022 tried to enter the territory of the educational institution. The radical protesters cut off the head of the academy cadet: the administration of Kazakhstan's President Tokayev has confirmed this.

Ahem. A military educational institution should have military weapons and ammunition. Why did they only have shovels? Perhaps the weapons were given only to commanders or senior students, because there were few of them. The commander of this guy also died, the head of the school was wounded and is in the hospital.

View attachment 364445

In totalitarian regimes, not everyone is trusted or deemed reliable to the same degree.

Perhaps this org wasn’t trusted, or fully trusted with firearms, firearms with firing pins, and/or firearms with firing pins and live ammunition.

You don’t want units with possible risk of defection doing so armed.

Sometimes less than 100% trusted units only get batons or equivalent, while trusted regime continuity units stay a tactical bound behind prepared to execute the slaughterfest.

 

[morris]

In totalitarian regimes, not everyone is trusted or deemed reliable to the same degree.

It isn't so much about totalitarian regime as about hordes/tribes/clans nature of Kazakh society.Actually totalitarianism stems from there.

In the Khanate of Kazakhs all the power was concentrated in the khan's hands. The khan was a symbol of the Centre of the Society and Cosmos, he guaranteed the stability in the State and Nature.
In the post-Mongolian steppe states there existed a tradition, according to which the khan was elected from Chingiz-khan's descendants (Chingizids). This days khan is called president.
There are also middle and new hordes. The military/security structure reflects that order.
Both Nazarbaev and Tokaev hordes are Chingizids.

 

[Иван Феоктистов]

It isn't so much about totalitarian regime as about hordes/tribes/clans nature of Kazakh society.Actually totalitarianism stems from there.
View attachment 364561
In the Khanate of Kazakhs all the power was concentrated in the khan's hands. The khan was a symbol of the Centre of the Society and Cosmos, he guaranteed the stability in the State and Nature.
In the post-Mongolian steppe states there existed a tradition, according to which the khan was elected from Chingiz-khan's descendants (Chingizids). This days khan is called president.
There are also middle and new hordes. The military/security structure reflects that order.
Both Nazarbaev and Tokaev hordes are Chingizids.

Ordinary capitalism of the banana republic. Personally, I see no reason to drag Genghis Khan here, especially after 70 years of Soviet rule.

 

[Иван Феоктистов]

In totalitarian regimes, not everyone is trusted or deemed reliable to the same degree.

Perhaps this org wasn’t trusted, or fully trusted with firearms, firearms with firing pins, and/or firearms with firing pins and live ammunition.

You don’t want units with possible risk of defection doing so armed.

Sometimes less than 100% trusted units only get batons or equivalent, while trusted regime continuity units stay a tactical bound behind prepared to execute the slaughterfest.

Your point of view is quite interesting. However, in the conditions of general confusion, it seems to me, the decision was made by the leadership of the school. I can assume that weapons might not have been issued, including in order not to provoke the crowd. For example, when Soviet airborne troops participated in the suppression of rallies in Georgia in 1989, they did not take their weapons with them. The soldiers were using just small infantry shovels in covers. An interesting analogue of the baton.

Perhaps someone in this situation showed indecision and decided to save himself from future problems, leaving the arsenal closed. Perhaps the weapon was simply not enough, as I wrote above. Military schools are not, after all, a warehouse for a strategic reserve; it is unlikely that anything more than a few dozen АК is stored there. I think that later there will be official and unofficial reasons for what happened.

 

[morris]

Ordinary capitalism of the banana republic. Personally, I see no reason to drag Genghis Khan here, especially after 70 years of Soviet rule.

Both post soviet capitalism and soviet socialism are only later and temporary skin layers on the skeleton of thousand years old Great Steppe traditional structure.

 

[Иван Феоктистов]

Both post soviet capitalism and soviet socialism are only later and temporary skin layers on the skeleton of thousand years old Great Steppe traditional structure.

O! Spengler, "The Decline of Europe"? We studied this book at the university.

 

[morris]

O! Spengler, "The Decline of Europe"? We studied this book at the university.

Haven't read that ^^ and wouldn't call the process in Europe decline but rather "another European metamorphose".

But back to Kazakhstan...
"The Grand Chessboard" by Arsen Seksenbaev.

Whose bust is in the background?