Mil News Current Iran/Iraq/US Tensions and Actions Unfolding

[Fluff]

Good ole Patton. Much better than the highly overrated Montgomery. Latter is exemplary of British military incompetence, so If you don't mind, I pass on you and @BCNTM hot takes over here. The road to Mandaley has been permanently shut down for decades now.

You shy away from the truth alot! I think CBT may help you.

 

[Fluff]

Not to be @Mardonius attorney here, but Iran and its proxies in Lebanon have attacked Israel for years (2006 comes to mind) with, indeed strong reaction from Israel.

Has Israel “nuked” Iran ever since? Will it ever? Nope, never. Rockets vs strikes here and there. It’s always been.

BCNTM. I’m not quite sure why you’re having some bizarre fantasy about nuking the entire Middle East, while thinking this will have zero consequences for the world, starting with us Westerners. This isn’t imperial Japan anymore. This isn’t WW2.

Israel has a final solution?

Oy vey! Do you realize how that sounds to the ears of some here? Endlösung much? Look it up, I’m not sure it’s quite appropriate to mention when talking about the state of Israel.

M'lord, I believe my client was simply indicating that should in the unlikely event that Iran lands a significant blow on Israel, the Isrealis may have the ability to land multiple significant blows on Iran. His mention of nuclear was nothing but a confete, hes an old man, retired now, and wants nothing but peace with the lovely people of the world.

 

[Fluff]

.....?

 

[Jake84]

It’s getting heated in here. Nevermind. The topic is indeed for this purpose. Peace & Love. Let’s roll a spliff and move on.

 

[Fluff]

It’s getting heated in here. Nevermind. The topic is indeed for this purpose. Peace & Love. Let’s roll a spliff and move on.

ah its good to vent. Anyone want to buy a post?

 

[Chazman]

It’s getting heated in here. Nevermind. The topic is indeed for this purpose. Peace & Love. Let’s roll a spliff and move on.

It is. Doesn't need to be, but as we all learned in physics, "every action has an equal and opposite reaction". And so it goes. Makes things interesting.

 

[Fluff]

I dont think any of us expect anyone else to roll over on here, I admire @Mardonius his conviction, whilst at the same time doubting Iran has done enough, or has the resources, to cause USA much trouble, while at the same time baiting USA, while at the same time showing the world its 'secret' missile bases. As others have said, USA almost certainly has toys its never showed. I'm very doubtful they will ever be seen, and most unlikely to be needed in Iran. Likewise true that USA has no strategic goal relating to Iran, other than the survival of Israel. Everyone, used to have an interest in oil, but thats going fast, and all the ME needs to figure that one out, in 5 years time, no-one going to care what you all do to each other.

 

[Jake84]

Agreed, however Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi have long figured out what to do without all the golden oil in years to come.

 

[Fluff]

Agreed, however Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi have long figured out what to do without all the golden oil in years to come.

They have indeed, and to some degree Iran seems jealous of their success. If you went back to 1980 and told the brits they would be holidaying in Dubai, they would have locked you up. We now have TV adverts to go to Saudi - would certainly be an experience.....

 

[Mardonius]

I dont think any of us expect anyone else to roll over on here, I admire @Mardonius his conviction, whilst at the same time doubting Iran has done enough, or has the resources, to cause USA much trouble, while at the same time baiting USA, while at the same time showing the world its 'secret' missile bases. As others have said, USA almost certainly has toys its never showed. I'm very doubtful they will ever be seen, and most unlikely to be needed in Iran. Likewise true that USA has no strategic goal relating to Iran, other than the survival of Israel. Everyone, used to have an interest in oil, but thats going fast, and all the ME needs to figure that one out, in 5 years time, no-one going to care what you all do to each other.

My point is though, and this isn't just dumb minded fanboyism, that Iran is already causing much trouble to the US. Let's all be honest: Iran has been a pain in the ass for consecutive American administrations ever since Jimmy Carter. They have all struggled (and continue to do so) to find a suitable and effective way to address Iran's regional behaviour. Even Israel is looking with sorrow how Iran - while confronted by all kinds of measures including assassinations, embargoes, sanctions, etc - has effectively bolstered its position in the Middle East.

And yes. Iran's regional influence has come at the expense of its economy, due to a combination of poor management and painstaking sanctions that have blocked foreign investment and prevented Iran reaching its full potential.

The issue that persists for Iran is: does it want growth or does it want to extend its influence? Having both in a dollar dominated US economic world is unrealistic.

No country has been able to free itself from the US. Some may point to China, but China holds trillions in treasury Bond of US. Also US/EU is China’s biggest economic partners. China grew because it became the workhorse (slave economy) of Western consumerism. Your phones, tablets, toys, clothes, material possessions was built with Chinese slave labor.

Today as China tries to transition to a consumer based economy and rely less on global trade it becomes quite clear that China cannot break completely free from the West.

Now compare this to Iran where the recent draconian sanctions has reduced all gains the Islamic Republic has on the average persons income and purchasing power.

Resistance economy that Iran floats is good in theory although theoretical. Iran cannot expect its 80M+ economy to supply all its growth. It will grow anemically at that rate.

So we are at a crossroads:

IRGC favors growing regional influence
More pragmatic factions in Iran favor growth

In this day and age you cannot survive being cut off from the global financial system, much like a baby cannot be cut off from nutrients and milk and expected to grow into his/her full potential.

As for solutions it’s tough. US is not a reliable negotiator and the Chinese and Russians are terrible allies of Iran and cannot be counted on to shield and help Iran prosper.

The only thing that can help Iran....is a growing more expansionist China which will force US to abandon Iranian containment and pull Iran back over to the West to once again be the bulwark against the Red wave of Communist Capitalism in the Middle East.

In short: China has to threaten the Global Order so much that two paths open up:

*Iran joining China to cause a bi-polar world and receiving significant economic benefits to assist China in this aim

*Iran joining the West to contain the Red Wave of China from sweeping across the world and receiving significant economic benefits to assist the West in this aim

These two scenarios would allow Iran to once again have foreign inflows and investment and contribute to a period of significant economic growth.

 

[Fluff]

My point is though, and this isn't just dumb minded fanboyism, that Iran is already causing much trouble to the US. Let's all be honest: Iran has been a pain in the ass for consecutive American administrations ever since Jimmy Carter. They have all struggled (and continue to do so) to find a suitable and effective way to address Iran's regional behaviour. Even Israel is looking with sorrow how Iran - while confronted by all kinds of measures including assassinations, embargoes, sanctions, etc - has effectively bolstered its position in the Middle East.

And yes. Iran's regional influence has come at the expense of its economy, due to a combination of poor management and painstaking sanctions that have blocked foreign investment and prevented Iran reaching its full potential.

The issue that persists for Iran is: does it want growth or does it want to extend its influence? Having both in a dollar dominated US economic world is unrealistic.

No country has been able to free itself from the US. Some may point to China, but China holds trillions in treasury Bond of US. Also US/EU is China’s biggest economic partners. China grew because it became the workhorse (slave economy) of Western consumerism. Your phones, tablets, toys, clothes, material possessions was built with Chinese slave labor.

Today as China tries to transition to a consumer based economy and rely less on global trade it becomes quite clear that China cannot break completely free from the West.

Now compare this to Iran where the recent draconian sanctions has reduced all gains the Islamic Republic has on the average persons income and purchasing power.

Resistance economy that Iran floats is good in theory although theoretical. Iran cannot expect its 80M+ economy to supply all its growth. It will grow anemically at that rate.

So we are at a crossroads:

IRGC favors growing regional influence
More pragmatic factions in Iran favor growth

In this day and age you cannot survive being cut off from the global financial system, much like a baby cannot be cut off from nutrients and milk and expected to grow into his/her full potential.

As for solutions it’s tough. US is not a reliable negotiator and the Chinese and Russians are terrible allies of Iran and cannot be counted on to shield and help Iran prosper.

The only thing that can help Iran....is a growing more expansionist China which will force US to abandon Iranian containment and pull Iran back over to the West to once again be the bulwark against the Red wave of Communist Capitalism in the Middle East.

In short: China has to threaten the Global Order so much that two paths open up:

*Iran joining China to cause a bi-polar world and receiving significant economic benefits to assist China in this aim

*Iran joining the West to contain the Red Wave of China from sweeping across the world and receiving significant economic benefits to assist the West in this aim

These two scenarios would allow Iran to once again have foreign inflows and investment and contribute to a period of significant economic growth.

Thats probably the best post you have ever done.

China/US and Europe etc, are all tied together, in a loveless marriage.

I cant see China welcoming Iran, because well basically your not chinese, AND your muslim. Flogging some arms, sure.

But I cant see the mullahs going with your second option.....

For sure some form of secular maybe even democratic government, and US etc will sell arms, and cars, and buy oil and whatever else Iran has, and part of that would be to 'balance' China.

But short of triggering a major blow up with Israel, USA etc. and it going badly wrong for Iran and the Mullahs, I cant see it happening peacefully.

 

[BCNTM]

You shy away from the truth alot! I think CBT may help you.

I was thinking more MBCI
But I am happy to go with Chronic Bullshi* Therapy

 

[BCNTM]

M'lord, I believe my client was simply indicating that should in the unlikely event that Iran lands a significant blow on Israel, the Isrealis may have the ability to land multiple significant blows on Iran. His mention of nuclear was nothing but a confete, hes an old man, retired now, and wants nothing but peace with the lovely people of the world.

All I am bothered about is them killing all the flora

My collection of Dionysia is not going to get any larger if someone kills them all off - the yanks did a good job in aStan

I am pretty sure there are some ones we have not found hiding in those mountains, and it would be such a shame for them to get killed off before I can get a cutting

 

[Mardonius]

Thats probably the best post you have ever done.

China/US and Europe etc, are all tied together, in a loveless marriage.

I cant see China welcoming Iran, because well basically your not chinese, AND your muslim. Flogging some arms, sure.

But I cant see the mullahs going with your second option.....

For sure some form of secular maybe even democratic government, and US etc will sell arms, and cars, and buy oil and whatever else Iran has, and part of that would be to 'balance' China.

But short of triggering a major blow up with Israel, USA etc. and it going badly wrong for Iran and the Mullahs, I cant see it happening peacefully.

China has reportedly already made overtures to Iran with a long-term agreement. Iran under leadership of the current government of Rouhani (who favours to have ties with the West) has refused so far, but this could change in the near future if the moderates lose against the conservatives.

Defying U.S., China and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership​

Iran and China have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions.

The partnership, detailed in an 18-page proposed agreement obtained by The New York Times, would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. In exchange, China would receive a regular — and, according to an Iranian official and an oil trader, heavily discounted — supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.

The document also describes deepening military cooperation, potentially giving China a foothold in a region that has been a strategic preoccupation of the United States for decades. It calls for joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence sharing — all to fight “the lopsided battle with terrorism, drug and human trafficking and cross-border crimes.”

The partnership — first proposed by China’s leader, Xi Jinping, during a visit to Iran in 2016 — was approved by President Hassan Rouhani’s cabinet in June, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said last week.

Iranian officials have publicly stated that there is a pending agreement with China, and one Iranian official, as well as several people who have discussed it with the Iranian government, confirmed that it is the document obtained by The Times, which is labeled “final version” and dated June 2020.

It has not yet been submitted to Iran’s Parliament for approval or made public, stoking suspicions in Iran about how much the government is preparing to give away to China.

Defying U.S., China and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership (Published 2020)

The investment and security pact would vastly extend China’s influence in the Middle East, throwing Iran an economic lifeline and creating new flash points with the United States.

www.nytimes.com

 

[BCNTM]

It’s getting heated in here. Nevermind. The topic is indeed for this purpose. Peace & Love. Let’s roll a spliff and move on.

I am not going to make the obvious comment of it might get 'really hot' somewhere else - you are making this too easy

 

[BCNTM]

It is. Doesn't need to be, but as we all learned in physics, "every action has an equal and opposite reaction". And so it goes. Makes things interesting.

You mean Yin and WRONG - or something like that

 

[Jake84]

I am not going to make the obvious comment of it might get 'really hot' somewhere else - you are making this too easy

Not sure what you’re trying to say here, but your yesterday’s imbibed, nonsense posting surely didn’t “make it easy” for us.

You sobering up yet BlackyCatty? Or still having a morning painful hangover?

 

[BCNTM]

Not sure what you’re trying to say here, but your yesterday’s imbibed, nonsense posting surely didn’t “make it easy” for us.

You sobering up yet BlackyCatty? Or still having a morning painful hangover?

Put it down to the vaccine................. EU probably would

Not had a drink for a week before the jab and no booze for at least another two weeks - yes I do read all the research/guidance

Got a good bottle of Bollinger in the fridge - but Mrs BCN cut the end of her finger off yesterday, so it may be awhile before we celebrate

Might wait till we have both had our second jab

 

[Jake84]

That’s fairer. I’m actually a total grump when I’m sober too. Do give us an update when you’re able to sip on your beverage of choice, although I suspect it’ll show.

 

[BravoZulu]

Just dropping this little stone here and see where the ripples lead

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