Mil News Current Iran/Iraq/US Tensions and Actions Unfolding

[BravoZulu]

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Drone attacks claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck two key oil installations inside Saudi Arabia on Saturday, damaging facilities that process the vast majority of the country’s crude output and raising the risk of a disruption in world oil supplies.
The attacks immediately escalated tensions in the Persian Gulf amid a standoff between the United States and Iran, even as key questions remained unanswered — where the drones were launched from, and how the Houthis managed to hit facilities deep in Saudi territory, some 500 miles from Yemeni soil.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of being behind what he called “an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply” and asserted that there was “no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.” He did not, however, specify an alternative launch site, and the Saudis themselves refrained from pointing the finger directly at Iran.
President Trump condemned the attack in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and offered support for “Saudi Arabia’s self defence,” the White House said in a statement, adding that the United States “remains committed to ensuring global oil markets are stable and well supplied.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/14/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

[BravoZulu]

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for coordinated strikes on the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, saying they marked an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.
The strikes shut down half of the kingdom’s crude production on Saturday, potentially roiling petroleum prices and demonstrating the power of Iran’s proxies.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/drone-strikes-spark-fires-at-saudi-oil-facilities-11568443375

 

[Fluff]

Iran says it's ready for war with US after Saudi oil attack accusations

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-say...s-after-saudi-oil-attack-accusations-11810252

When in doubt, pour a little oil on the issue - is it really a good idea to goad the only superpower?
Elections approach for US president - a nice 'clean' set of airstrikes and IMHO Iran would be without electrical power, lose its 'fleet' of speedboats in the gulf and all its aircraft, and any of its 'peaceful' nuclear research facilities- in about 3 days of work.
= trump re-elected.

 

[Dercius]

Waiting for US to show the smoking gun on the Iranian hands.

Dont get me wrong, Im no IRGC fan, neither am I a House of Saud servant. And lets say that the proof provided by the US in the past to justify certain military operations (all of them supported when not instigated by KSA) were nothing but utter BS.

They better have some satellite imaginery of some sort, or nobody should be buying this sh!t this time. Enough with the usual BS...Baby incubators/Paliwood White Helmets Videoclips/White powder at UNSQ sesions((damn, now I know it was probably cocaine ? ))
For God´s sake let the Saudis fight and lose their own wars.

Jeeeez…… Im pissed off and tired of seen western military being the Askaris of Wahabbism, fighting everysingle one of their wars. And what for??? so Clinton fundation can get gross donations, Western politicians can get generous bribes, and general western population can enjoy a Bataclan/Niza/Barcelona/Manchester/Berlin/Madrid massacre every now and then as a payback from the Saudis. Tired of this sh!t, is just a bad business for everyone but the politicians and Saudi lobbyist gettin their pockets filled with petrodollars.,, Sickening.

I have always said so. If Saudis want to go on a dick measuring contest with the Iranians, let them do so. But is their war, and should be them doing the dying and the killing.

All I can see at the moment is KSA wanting to push us to fight just another pointless war on their behalf. This time against Iran. Meanwhile Israel whistles the same tune (At least I can understand Israel point in this whole story, but cant understand ours… the only plausible option being our leaders are already on House of Saud pocket).
Just my 2c.

 

[Fluff]

Good value for 2c.

I have no problem if the Saudis and the Iranians want to go at it. But Iran drags the west in with oil to Syria, hostage taking etc. It’s not a good idea to put themselves at the top of the naughty list-yes it’s actually called that.

Old Kim must be sooo happy, he’s got no dosh, actually tried to make nukes etc, and yet Iran is public enemy number 1.

Those bad guy meetings must be so grumpy, what does Kim have to to compete....

 

[NebrHogger]

Kim can say, "my wife is hotter than yours! " His nuke program? Not so much.

 

[Fluff]

Kim can say, "my wife is hotter than yours! " His nuke program? Not so much.

Hopefully he can remember which gulag he sent her too, for smiling at the pool guy......

 

[Mordoror]

POTUS last tweet

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

Laughable if it was not so tragic. It also somehow confirm who is really leading the lead ....

 

[Mordoror]

Just to sum the events and put things in perspective

The satellite pictures show at least 15 to 17 impacts on the oil plant
Impacts that have a North West orientation
There is a testimony from a Kuweiti fisher that he has seen missiles over his ship
= more and more things pointing from a source in Irak and not Yemen

Now the question is how a massive volley of missiles/drones (i repeat 15 to 17 impacts) has been missed by all the air defences (KSA, EAU and Kuweit + nearby NATO ships + US AD and C&C watching Centcom) in the area (probably one of the most overwatched air space of the world....)

Solutions :
everybody was blind/drunk/asleep/shagging whores
trajectories were short and low level (reinforcing the Irak source hypothesis)
conspiracy

 

[Dercius]

Starting to hear some claims, like a salvo of +20 Soumar cruise missiles where smugled into Irak and fired from there to the Saudi installations.
Well, its hard to figure out how they smugled them in, set shop and fired the whole salvo going completely unnoticed, taking into account that each goddamned thing is 8m long and 2tons heavy.

Nothing suspicious , my friend, just Junkers water heaters my friend. (Iranian Smugler at Iraki Border at the front of the +20 trucks convoy).

 

[Marat]

Just to sum the events and put things in perspective

The satellite pictures show at least 15 to 17 impacts on the oil plant
Impacts that have a North West orientation
There is a testimony from a Kuweiti fisher that he has seen missiles over his ship
...….

oh we have witnes from Kuwait again, nice. Just two words> Nayirah testimony

 

[Jake84]

A serious question that was asked here on TV: at the age of super worldwide connection, satellites and Internet, how come we still don’t have a clue where those “drones” came from?

Secondly, how can some local rebel yemini tribes have combat armed drones whereas most of the European armies don’t even have them?

All of this clearly isn’t an “accident” but an act of war.

 

[BCNTM]

POTUS last tweet

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

Laughable if it was not so tragic. It also somehow confirm who is really leading the lead ....

more like when is the next moonless night over Iran

 

[Fluff]

more like when is the next moonless night over Iran

I'm worried that Iran believes Iran is ready to take on the US.

We are moving into the state actor category, if there are bits of Iranian missiles in those fuel tanks, then Iran is responsible - seller beware.

I dont believe Trump will hold off a second time.

I predict a lot of burning vehicles and colapsed buildings appearing, kind of overnight, for reasons unknown. And no-one will know who did it....

 

[Mordoror]

more like when is the next moonless night over Iran

I ll take 10 Irans over a single goarfucker wahabbi KSA.

 

[Mordoror]

I'm worried that Iran believes Iran is ready to take on the US.

We are moving into the state actor category, if there are bits of Iranian missiles in those fuel tanks, then Iran is responsible - seller beware.

I dont believe Trump will hold off a second time.

I predict a lot of burning vehicles and colapsed buildings appearing, kind of overnight, for reasons unknown. And no-one will know who did it....

State actor category was ongoing from the beginning of the Yemeni crisis and evenbefore. It would just be hypocrisy to punish Iran for playing proxies when all over actors are doing the same.
BTW i like your seller beware. Can we make US, France and UK accountable for indiscriminate civilian and world heritage bombing as well as cholera and hunger spreading by their customers?

I see the thing that way: Iran and pals have shown that they have one more tool to hurt both KSA and worl economy and it is not the inept saoudi sand crawlers that wil stop them. Iran has always proceeded by shock then negociate. If Trump is a good negociation man he will get the memo. If he leave himself piloted by warmongers and KSA (and Israel) lobbies he may go for a military response. But in this case better pack food and oil.Iran has 0 chance to win a military conflict with USA. It has just shown (if it is proven it is directly involved) that not only it can screw Ormuz straights but also KSA and all others arabic peninsula oil fields and plants.
That's called weak to strong detterrence

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Photos raise doubts about oil attacks

Drones didn’t attack Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities. They were guided cruise missiles and initial examinations of their remains indicate — Iran made them.

www.news.com.au

 

[Fluff]

State actor category was ongoing from the beginning of the Yemeni crisis and evenbefore. It would just be hypocrisy to punish Iran for playing proxies when all over actors are doing the same.
BTW i like your seller beware. Can we make US, France and UK accountable for indiscriminate civilian and world heritage bombing as well as cholera and hunger spreading by their customers?

I see the thing that way: Iran and pals have shown that they have one more tool to hurt both KSA and worl economy and it is not the inept saoudi sand crawlers that wil stop them. Iran has always proceeded by shock then negociate. If Trump is a good negociation man he will get the memo. If he leave himself piloted by warmongers and KSA (and Israel) lobbies he may go for a military response. But in this case better pack food and oil.Iran has 0 chance to win a military conflict with USA. It has just shown (if it is proven it is directly involved) that not only it can screw Ormuz straights but also KSA and all others arabic peninsula oil fields and plants.
That's called weak to strong detterrence

A few 'old' Scuds that were of course sold to Yemen when it was a peaceful and stable nation, are deniable. 20 of their latest guided missiles, presumably with drone targetting, harder to deny.

I agree Trump is a negotiator, but he held off once, to do so again would show too much weakness. even a limited 'evaporation/disappearance' of some Iranian military assets will clear everyones heads as to who is playing with the big boys toys, and who went to radio shack. I would also expect at least one Nuclear site would suffer a severe and unexplained structural failure on the same night.

As to the Seller beware, the west etc would point to selling to the legal gov's of these countries, I doubt Iran could say the same. And Iran is playing with fire, trying to surround Israel, trouble in Yemen (Clearly Saudi backyard), and then messing with the Nuclear deal. What are they aiming for, ticking every box, I cant see it ending well - for Iran.

 

[BCNTM]

I cant see it ending well - for Iran.

stone age is beckoning
To be honest I cannot see why they did not shoot the mad mullah whilst he was in Turkey and blame the Turks - I am sure they could have crashed a drone into him or his mode of transport by 'accident'

 

[Mordoror]

A few 'old' Scuds that were of course sold to Yemen when it was a peaceful and stable nation, are deniable. 20 of their latest guided missiles, presumably with drone targetting, harder to deny.

I agree Trump is a negotiator, but he held off once, to do so again would show too much weakness. even a limited 'evaporation/disappearance' of some Iranian military assets will clear everyones heads as to who is playing with the big boys toys, and who went to radio shack. I would also expect at least one Nuclear site would suffer a severe and unexplained structural failure on the same night.

As to the Seller beware, the west etc would point to selling to the legal gov's of these countries, I doubt Iran could say the same. And Iran is playing with fire, trying to surround Israel, trouble in Yemen (Clearly Saudi backyard), and then messing with the Nuclear deal. What are they aiming for, ticking every box, I cant see it ending well - for Iran.

Basically i agree. and i expected a tit for tat answer within a denial system; "Ooops your launch pad/ nuclear plant/scientist have exploded last night, too bad, i really don't know who has done it"
However some are pushing for a strong and visible military answer. That would be a major mistake, including during reelection time and with a world economy going toward recession.

As for Iran policy, well

1- even if Israel feel it that way, i (and few others) don't feel the purpose was to surround Israel. This is a ricochet effect of Iran looking for a sea shore not as vulnerable as Ormuz straight and Bandar abbas is (lession learned from GW)
of course Iran-Israel antagonism is putting this logical geostrategic move into interesting perspective

2-KSA litteraly pushed Yemn into Iranian hands. Houthis had here and between relationships with Iran before KSa intervention. Hell, they are not even shia even if it is sold as such. It is the same symptom with Irak. Destabilize a country and cry fool because your ennemy comes in to play factions that are fighting you. USA gave Irak on a plate to Iran, KSA gave Yemen on a plate to Iran (which was not looking for such a gift)

3-Messing with the nuclear deal ? Until USA scrapped it, according to IAEA, Iran was fully compliant. And conspiracy theories ala Powell(c) in front on the UN (Netanyahu, i look at you) won't change that. Concerning the nuclear development, when you see what happened to Lybia and Syria when they scrapped their WMD programs (with the help of our beloved allies KSA, Qatar, and UAE) in comparison with what is happening to NK, if i was Iran i'd play the nuke card too.

It is all geopolitic and balance of power and Iran is not, by far, the most instable and irrational actor in the area. Can we say the same with MBS who, on a tantrum, decided to butcher a journalist on a foreign ground ?