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Politics All Things Trump

Hey guys, just because some private equity companies are being dirty dogs until market forces correct them, doesn't mean I'm ready to be a socialist/communist/marxist waiting in line to be issued a government supplied, unheated concrete apartment. :)
 
Hey guys, just because some private equity companies are being dirty dogs until market forces correct them, doesn't mean I'm ready to be a socialist/communist/marxist waiting in line to be issued a government supplied, unheated concrete apartment. :)
Hey Chaz. If you ever happen to be in my neck of the communist wilderness, you are welcome to crash in my government supplied, unheated concrete apartment. As an added bonus I make mean borscht! <3
 
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Prolific hoaxer Schiff resurfaces amid Gabbard's document drop.
 
Hey Chaz. If you ever happen to be in my neck of the communist wilderness, you are welcome to crash in my government supplied, unheated concrete apartment. As an added bonus I make mean borscht! <3
Sounds like a plan. I'll bring the booze and a space heater.;)
 
Will south Park be canceled next?

1000042190.webp
 
LOL! Bannon lays down the law with a PBS interviewer.


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Ok, this post got away from me. I admit that.

TLDR; Madness, utter madness.

The Impending Collapse of Civilization Real Estate

I really do believe market forces will sort out the real estate situation.

For one thing there is the self sorting mechanism. Black Rock is not everywhere.

For another, we are in the leading edge of at least a price correction right now. I think it is going to be more than a small correction. The market has been overbuilding and overpricing. More importantly it has been wrong building.

Wrong building? Yes. I think the previous two decades of building near-suburban McMansions made of Tyvek and twigs covered with silly putty is going to leave a large supply of unmaintainable POS, low value BS that the market will not want going forward. No amount of color matching artisanal kitchens can cover this up.

The millennials bought in big on the McMansion concept, but I do not think Gen-Z will.

This will accelerate a comparative price drop and lead to existing stock that fewer people want long-term.

So what next. Have you ever seen the BS way real estate "professionals" classify and price property in the US? Comparables. Which really aren't comparable. It is a crap system. And then there is condition. OK, that does matter.

And firstly, yes firstly, there is location. This does matter. Is remote work dead or coming on strong? Will these McMansion franchises be left captured in a ring of under built transportation infrastructure?

My opinion on buying a stand alone house

1. Go slow. If you are in a hurry to buy. Don't. Rent. You are talking about a 20 or 30 year loan. Do you really need to conclude that contract this week? You do not. The commission based people "helping" you need to go fast. You should not.

"We have to get this done quick" is a huge warning sign in every business deal where you actually don't need to get this done quick.

Also if this is part of a relocation, and your first home, definitely rent. You need local knowledge.

2. You don't need a real estate agent. You need your own home inspector who you personally pay and you need your own lawyer with experience and (if applicable in your jurisdiction) certification in real estate.

3. Look elsewhere. Look at older homes that aren't built like modern garbage. Your home inspector will know what this means. If he doesn't get a different inspector.

4. No HOA. A HOA is not what people think it is. It is a long-term liability. A liability is a thing that costs you money. Do you know what a HOA is? It is an organization that takes money from you and spends it on the things they want. Hard no. They may call this something else. Read and understand any covenants. Don't get involved with any racket like this.

Also, and this is extra special, HOA (or similar racket) often takes on long-term liability left behind when the developer exits. Things like maintaining water management or other infrastructure. Welcome to getting a multi-million dollar bond issued to their friends at a bank by your HOA board backed by your new assessment and dues. And the developer just walks away.

5. Location. Where do you really want. Screw what everybody else thinks. Definitely flush all preconceptions straight down the crapper. I have spent day after evening after night walking potential neighborhoods. You are planning on living in this area right? Walk it, repeatedly. You don't feel comfortable walking there, but you are going to live there? Drive in and out at rush hour. In a non-creepy way assess how many school bus stops are here. That will tell you the real version of how many young families are here.

5A. Location. Look where Black Rock and their fellow travelers aren't looking. These groups actually target a very narrow type of property development. And largely I believe they are places you should not buy. Remember Part 4 where the developer skates leaving you with the long term liability? Yeah.


You don't have time for all that. But you have time for a 20 or 30 year loan?

Again, apologies for this rant. I missed my nap.

(old man mumblings as I wander off looking for a sandwich or an ice flow)
 
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Ok, this post got away from me. I admit that.

TLDR; Madness, utter madness.

The Impending Collapse of Civilization Real Estate

I really do believe market forces will sort out the real estate situation.

For one thing there is the self sorting mechanism. Black Rock is not everywhere.

For another, we are in the leading edge of at least a price correction right now. I think it is going to be more than a small correction. The market has been overbuilding and overpricing. More importantly it has been wrong building.

Wrong building? Yes. I think the previous two decades of building near-suburban McMansions made of Tyvek and twigs covered with silly putty is going to leave a large supply of unmaintainable POS, low value BS that the market will not want going forward. No amount of color matching artisanal kitchens can cover this up.

The millennials bought in big on the McMansion concept, but I do not think Gen-Z will.

This will accelerate a comparative price drop and lead to existing stock that fewer people want long-term.

So what next. Have you ever seen the BS way real estate "professionals" classify and price property in the US? Comparables. Which really aren't comparable. It is a crap system. And then there is condition. OK, that does matter.

And firstly, yes firstly, there is location. This does matter. Is remote work dead or coming on strong? Will these McMansion franchises be left captured in a ring of under built transportation infrastructure?

My opinion on buying a stand alone house

1. Go slow. If you are in a hurry to buy. Don't. Rent. You are talking about a 20 or 30 year loan. Do you really need to conclude that contract this week? You do not. The commission based people "helping" you need to go fast. You should not.

"We have to get this done quick" is a huge warning sign in every business deal where you actually don't need to get this done quick.

Also if this is part of a relocation, and your first home, definitely rent. You need local knowledge.

2. You don't need a real estate agent. You need your own home inspector who you personally pay and you need your own lawyer with experience and (if applicable in your jurisdiction) certification in real estate.

3. Look elsewhere. Look at older homes that aren't built like modern garbage. Your home inspector will know what this means. If he doesn't get a different inspector.

4. No HOA. A HOA is not what people think it is. It is a long-term liability. A liability is a thing that costs you money. Do you know what a HOA is? It is an organization that takes money from you and spends it on the things they want. Hard no. They may call this something else. Read and understand any covenants. Don't get involved with any racket like this.

Also, and this is extra special, HOA (or similar racket) often takes on long-term liability left behind when the developer exits. Things like maintaining water management or other infrastructure. Welcome to getting a multi-million dollar bond issued to their friends at a bank by your HOA board backed by your new assessment and dues. And the developer just walks away.

5. Location. Where do you really want. Screw what everybody else thinks. Definitely flush all preconceptions straight down the crapper. I have spent day after evening after night walking potential neighborhoods. You are planning on living in this area right? Walk it, repeatedly. You don't feel comfortable walking there, but you are going to live there? Drive in and out at rush hour. In a non-creepy way assess how many school bus stops are here. That will tell you the real version of how many young families are here.

5A. Location. Look where Black Rock and their fellow travelers aren't looking. These groups actually target a very narrow type of property development. And largely I believe they are places you should not buy. Remember Part 4 where the developer skates leaving you with the long term liability? Yeah.


You don't have time for all that. But you have time for a 20 or 30 year loan?

Again, apologies for this rant. I missed my nap.

(old man mumblings as I wander off looking for a sandwich or an ice flow)
Solid advice, old man. How do you guys see Black Rock? It has been mentioned several times and it comes around even in Ukraine related propaganda often enough to raise a brow, but in my corner of the world, it's just a name of another foreign company.
 
Solid advice, old man. How do you guys see Black Rock? It has been mentioned several times and it comes around even in Ukraine related propaganda often enough to raise a brow, but in my corner of the world, it's just a name of another foreign company.
It may or may not be in your neighborhood. They are a multi-national diversified investment group. Because of scale, and largely through subsidiaries, they are a player in real estate.

How do I see them? I wouldn't buy real estate from them or through them. Mostly because I don't think I would get a good deal.

They market themselves as big on ESG. I don't believe that though. The world's biggest asset management company is all about koalas and the little guy. Hahaha, you funny, tell me another.

 
Solid advice, old man. How do you guys see Black Rock? It has been mentioned several times and it comes around even in Ukraine related propaganda often enough to raise a brow, but in my corner of the world, it's just a name of another foreign company.
Personally, I loathe Black Rock and it's founder Larry Fink. I didn't/don't like their stance on ESG nor how they throw Americans under the bus to cozy up with China. As it turns out, ESG now has a black eye and firms are quietly walking away from it like it never existed and China isn't the panacea it was made out to be.

So even for Black Rock, market pressures correct them.
 
ESG now has a black eye and firms are quietly walking away from it like it never existed
Because ESG never existed. It was a marketing term that was later weaponized. And once that happened it lost value as a marketing term.

People can invent whatever terms they want, but investors look for returns. Not words.
 
I also agree that the market is headed for a correction. Rates will definitely drop within a year and I'd hope inventory will open up.
 
I also agree that the market is headed for a correction. Rates will definitely drop within a year and I'd hope inventory will open up.
Rates almost certainly will drop. (almost, who knows what factors could change the world.)

Inventory is already opening up. This is currently regional, but time on market is increasing. We are just passed the most recent short and long dips, and I think this rise is going to be a longish rise.

Median Days on Market in the United States

I think we are going to see a rise in zombie properties, because there is growing supply that isn't really suitable. That will skew time on market, but it looks like we are in a very early stage buyers market. Not a 2009 situation, but better for buyers.

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States
 
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OMG!!! Hillarious! They guy who was actually screwing a CCP spy! You can't make this up, folks.

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Hahahahahaha!!!!!

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