Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Fluff]

The problem with Trump is how erratic he is, a facet of his political persona usually overlooked by both proponents and critics. He says one thing and does another. His proponents praise him to the high heavens not realising that his deeds often don't match his words; and his critics take his often absurd statements at face value and don't realise that he's often more measured in his actions.

its a deliberate element, to keep everyone guessing.

 

[Picanha]

Putin claimed there's a conventional capability being readied for that missile, and I'm actually inclined to believe him.

If, as Budanov has said, this Kedr missile actually carries 6 MIRVs with 6 submunitions each, it might be able to be used as long-range substitute for conventional rocket artillery. The footage I've seen so far strikes me as a bit inconclusive in terms of the system's accuracy; the CEP was too big to allow for a precision strike against a small target.

But it wasn't aweful either. I tried to use geolocation and think all visible hits (18 to 20 by my reckoning) landed in a ~200×300m area. Perhaps smaller. The factory complex they hit is big, but not overly big, and I couldn't find evidence of hits outside the perimeter.

At some point, you could absolutely use that missile conventionally to obliterate something like a division headquarters or a squadron of aircraft being prepped on an airfield tarmac. If that thing is really a variant of the RS-26, its payload would be 800-1,000 kilos. Nothing to go crazy about, but not to be ignored either. If Budanov's assessment is correct, we're talking 30 kilos per submunition, so almost three times the explosive yield of a 155 mm artillery shell (add the projectile's kinetic energy on top of that).

In other words, that thing would give Russia the ability to conduct the equivalent of an artillery battalion striking a target 5,000 kilometres away. That's not bad, not bad at all. And right now, only Aegis Ashore and maybe Arrow-3 can shoot that thing down.

I'm quite convinced a conventional deterrent and conventional strategic capacities are rapidly going to become a thing in this day and age. Iran has proven you can attack a nuclear-armed country so long as you do it right. And remember what Teheran feared the most about Israel's response? Not a potential strike against high-value military or political targets, but against their oil and gas industry.

I suppose this is going to become the new norm. Imagine two Kedrs fired at the port of Rotterdam. Maybe even in a manner as outlined in Putin's November 22 threat to Ukraine's Western backers, i.e. with Russia giving a forewarning so that civilians can get out of harm's way.

The Dutch economy would take a major hit from that; but can you imagine NATO going to war over a destruction of property and maybe a couple of people injured? Politically, this missile does have a potential for escalation. And poses some interesting questions.

That won't work. Using a ballistic missile agains a NATO country will invoke not only article 5 but also make sure Putler lerns his lesson about playing with fire.

Lobbing an empty ICBM is showing his impotence. It was a huge failure.

Only some clueless low IQ Germans and Scholz can be frightened by that move.

The rest of the world sees the "sonst ich hol meine brüder" move exactly as it is.

 

[Fluff]

Putin claimed there's a conventional capability being readied for that missile, and I'm actually inclined to believe him.

If, as Budanov has said, this Kedr missile actually carries 6 MIRVs with 6 submunitions each, it might be able to be used as long-range substitute for conventional rocket artillery. The footage I've seen so far strikes me as a bit inconclusive in terms of the system's accuracy; the CEP was too big to allow for a precision strike against a small target.

But it wasn't aweful either. I tried to use geolocation and think all visible hits (18 to 20 by my reckoning) landed in a ~200×300m area. Perhaps smaller. The factory complex they hit is big, but not overly big, and I couldn't find evidence of hits outside the perimeter.

At some point, you could absolutely use that missile conventionally to obliterate something like a division headquarters or a squadron of aircraft being prepped on an airfield tarmac. If that thing is really a variant of the RS-26, its payload would be 800-1,000 kilos. Nothing to go crazy about, but not to be ignored either. If Budanov's assessment is correct, we're talking 30 kilos per submunition, so almost three times the explosive yield of a 155 mm artillery shell (add the projectile's kinetic energy on top of that).

In other words, that thing would give Russia the ability to conduct the equivalent of an artillery battalion striking a target 5,000 kilometres away. That's not bad, not bad at all. And right now, only Aegis Ashore and maybe Arrow-3 can shoot that thing down.

I'm quite convinced a conventional deterrent and conventional strategic capacities are rapidly going to become a thing in this day and age. Iran has proven you can attack a nuclear-armed country so long as you do it right. And remember what Teheran feared the most about Israel's response? Not a potential strike against high-value military or political targets, but against their oil and gas industry.

I suppose this is going to become the new norm. Imagine two Kedrs fired at the port of Rotterdam. Maybe even in a manner as outlined in Putin's November 22 threat to Ukraine's Western backers, i.e. with Russia giving a forewarning so that civilians can get out of harm's way.

The Dutch economy would take a major hit from that; but can you imagine NATO going to war over a destruction of property and maybe a couple of people injured? Politically, this missile does have a potential for escalation. And poses some interesting questions.

The factory was describes as massive, so if its a 1000 metre square, hitting it with a CEP of 200-300 metres is entirely possible. Doing the same to an airfield, which is 90% grass, isnt going to destroy a sqn of aircraft.

I cant believe that economically firing a ICBM to drop say 6 x 500kg bombs is going to be a productive use.

Also fusing this weapon isnt going to be easy, its easy with a nuke, because it doesnt really matter how acurate it is, Cost to drop them from an aircraft - assuming the aircraft comes back, $100,000 ? ICBM one shot $50M? Emotionally or politically a different issue, but I think most NATO members would consider that an attack, and already I believe NATO has quietly made clear, that use of a Nuke in Ukraine will result in a massive conventional attack, I'd think the same response if the ICBM was used conventionally against a NATO member. Also probably NATO would attack the active Russian army, i.e. in Ukraine. Europeans are not going to live like Israelis do.

 

[Fluff]

Well, there is some unpredictability within a range. Let's say you are bad people who kill Americans, what would you expect Trump's response to be? It's an unpredictable range of things. He will CERTAINLY not do nothing. But...will he send SEAL 6 in to kill the individual perpetrators......or will he nuke your capitol? Who knows??? Best to not FAFO.

Well uncle Joe would after a few days, suggest calm, and mutual negotiations, in good faith. Kumbaya.

Trump would find out who your hairdresser was and drop a cruise missile on the shop, and send you the picture.

in todays world, I'm happier with the second option. 4 years of the first option have got us absolutely no-where, other than every wierdo, niche sexual kink, and perversion is now given equal air time, and right of protest - how does a london hippie, screaming at a british policeman, further the cause of a palestinian, who believes in the total destruction of israel, and all the people living in israel?

 

[Fluff]

So, we'll see.

Conversations here are mostly limited to the war in Ukraine, but Trump was elected to fix a host of problems.

He's not President yet, but the mere threat to both Canada and Mexico with tariffs, if they don't control the influx of illegals and fentanyl coming into the US have already gotten results. Trudeau has agreed to close border and Mexico has started turning back caravans of illegals coming through Mexico. EU shifts to buying US energy. Hamas wants to end war - now. Hezbollah and Israel agree to ceasefire. Illegals have started to self-deport. Corrupt government bureaucrats have begun mass retiring.

Putin wants to talk peace with Trump and so does Zelensky.. Putin is also no longer targeting the US Dollar and backs selling oil for US dollars.

I think it's going to be okay.

There are negatives to Trump. And positives. I have said previously, I dont think he thought he would win the first time, and now with experience, he seems to be putting a more professional team together, and already issuing 'instructions' some of which recipients are actioning.

Compared to Joe, who seemed to think everyone being nice was a great plan, this looks more hopeful.

Just on Hezbolah, Joe's team presumably asked everyone nicely to get along, and if they did they would get $$.

Trump, maybe he just tells them they better turn up, ready to negotiate, or else they wont like what he does. Basically business like.

 

[surfpunk]

its a deliberate element, to keep everyone guessing.

I dont know about that, LOL, I get the impression that he decides something based on his ego, and tries to pass off any adjustments to his thinking or his decisions based on more correct information, as some kind of 3D checkers...

 

[Fluff]

I dont know about that, LOL, I get the impression that he decides something based on his ego, and tries to pass off any adjustments to his thinking or his decisions based on more correct information, as some kind of 3D checkers...

im not saying he is 17 moves ahead, just that he likes to mask his plans, but I'd say business like is better than woke as a guiding principle.

 

[profyler]

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Trump: Mr. Putin, if you don't accept the lands you've invaded and conquered into Russia and accept that Ukraine will never join NATO, I will arm Ukraine to the teeth!

 

[Chazman]

Trump: Mr. Putin, if you don't accept the lands you've invaded and conquered into Russia and accept that Ukraine will never join NATO, I will arm Ukraine to the teeth!

Yes, Trump is such a terrible negotiator........

 

[Chazman]

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[Chazman]

The Ruble is in complete free fall.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[Soldier35]

Video of the use in the Kursk region of the Russian FPV drone "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky", controlled by a fiber optic cable. In the video, the FPV drone "Vandal" attacks the Ukrainian IFV "Marder" 1A3. Made in Germany. The IFV "Marder" was adopted by Germany in 1971. Ukraine received about 90 units of the IFV Marder 1A3. The IFV Marder 1A3 is a modification of 1989. Technical information is on the channel. The IFV Marder 1A3 is already in the Russian army. As a result of the strike of the FPV drone "Vandal", the IFV Marder 1A3 was damaged, the extent of the damage is unclear. The Ukrainian IFV Marder 1A3 was attacked by two drones, as it turned out later.

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[muck]

I mean, the Euros have spent the last 3 years of this conflict proving beyond a doubt that such assistance from them will NEVER be forthcoming. So, as usual, if there is going to be a a game changer, it will have to come from the US.
Of course, expect to hear endless whining and complaining if Trump doesnt come through...

Not entirely true. France, Britain and Poland wanted to step up their commitments quite substantially, but Biden put pressure on them to withdraw. He really believes in that boiling the frog strategy. And I get the idea, but for that to work you'd have to have a roadmap that extends beyond one four-year term.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[Picanha]

The Ruble is in complete free fall.

Well their fantasy economy is much more fragile than their fantasy second strongest army question is what falls first.

 

[muck]

Well their fantasy economy is much more fragile than their fantasy second strongest army question is what falls first.

I never understood the defeatism of Western media and politicians when it comes to the economic sanctions against Russia. Everyone and their grannie is like "it's not working, look, their economy grows!". It's like, who claims the Russian economy is growing? Moscow. They also claim their inflation stands at 9.1% despite the fact they've raised their prime rate to a whopping 21%.

Potatoes are now 73% more expensive than they were just a year ago. Potatoes. That's a basic food grown everywhere in Russia.

They're in the midst of a massive stagflation. Companies involved in the war effort are booming. Their workers (and soldiers of course) receive rises in salary hitherto unheard of in Russia. But everyone else is getting poorer by the day.

 

[Fluff]

Not entirely true. France, Britain and Poland wanted to step up their commitments quite substantially, but Biden put pressure on them to withdraw. He really believes in that boiling the frog strategy. And I get the idea, but for that to work you'd have to have a roadmap that extends beyond one four-year term.

Joe’s list included, putin might die, get bored, have a stroke. Someone might kill him etc. for some reason the idea that American weapons might defeat putins army, wasn’t acceptable. Maybe one day he will explain it. But this mind virus clearly drove germanys policy, of help, but nothing decisive, or offensive.

 

[muck]

@Fluff

If you ask me, Joe Biden and Jake Sullivan thought they could manage this situation like the Russo-Afghan War or the Vietnam War (from a Russian perspective). They feared a global escalation should their enemy be soundly defeated (according to Bob Woodward a realistic possibility in October 2022), but they couldn't let Putin win either. So, they decided to boil the frog i.e. doing just enough to draw the Russians further and further in until they'd collapse.

Of course, Biden was also influenced by public opinion in America. Recently, 51% polled against sending arms to Ukraine, so it's safe to say Biden would've felt like he couldn't risk a decisive Russian defeat with all its military and financial implications.

As for Germany, that's a different matter altogether. Olaf Scholz is a disgusting opportunist without any foreign policy vision whatsoever. He only cared about keeping his administration together. You could follow the balance of power in that precarious coalition in real time based on Berlin's Ukraine policy. Whenever Germany did help, Scholz had just lost a power struggle.