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Warfare Russia/Ukraine War
- Thread starter morris
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What you're saying isn't wrong but let's face it, FFG just got overwhelmed by the extent of that deal. It's a company which used to repair armoured vehicles, went to develop modifications for existing platforms (mainly M113 and Leopard 2), carved out a little niche for itself producing armoured engineer vehicles and exports like 30-40 vehicles in a good year. And not because they're hamstrung by anyone, but because that's what they're doing. Small is their forte. They're a small joint. There was no way in hell they would've ever been able to deliver 400 MRAPs in what, 9 months from the signing of the contract? Everyone should've seen this coming, both in Germany and in Ukraine.Seems to internal problems and bureacracy they have peoblems since beginning of the year.
Hold your breath...allegedly certificates are missing.
Ein Fahrzeug kostet 787.500 Euro: Deutsche Ukraine-Lieferung stockt – Zertifikate fehlen
Die Waffen-Lieferungen für die Ukraine laufen nach dem Ja aus den USA auf Hochtouren. In Deutschland kommt dagegen ein Versprechen an Kiew nicht voran.www.merkur.de
The vehicles are also very expensive in comparison.
FFG does other things usually but getting caught in ted taüe when people are dyinh is a no go.
But to be fair the Germsn arms industry got sidelened by 16 years of Meekrl stsndstill. No big orders and no plans whatsoever.
Arms suppliers should have been strangled even by not getting financial services from banks.
Or so was the plan of the peaceniks...until they got hit in the face.
Nowadays those longing for peace and telling to disarm are pure Putler fans and enablers.
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There are ways around that, factories that can provide outsourcing if there's a lack of capacity. For example VDL in the Netherlands has factories that produce vehicles for other companies. Another factory is going to be producing CV90s and upgrade packages for Ukraine and other export customers including the Netherlands itself.
The problem is the complexity of the German vehicles themselves and needing to produce them from scratch as well? The US had thousands of MRAPs surplus to requirement, some of which weren't even brought back from the warzones because it would cost more than they were worth. Buying and overhauling a batch from the US that were bought back, parked in the desert and forgotten about would have been far more feasible in that timeframe.
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Oh nooooooooooooo. "Trump is Putin's puppet". "Trump will surrender Ukraine to his master Putin". "Trump will hand over Alaska because he fears Putin". (Just some idiotic comments by idiots I've seen).
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Schemes like that were proposed to Washington several times, as far as I can remember. They mostly said no, except in a single case (some HIMARS launchers). I just don't understand why. Europeans buying surplus American materiel for Ukraine would've been a good way to counter some of the vile narratives spread by the American right about the Ukraine aids.
Sullivan is a moron. And, by extent, so is Biden. I don't mean his ideology by that (a story for another day), but his statecraft. A good politician is someone who surrounds himself with advisors of a different disposition than his own. Someone to bounce ideas off. Biden, however, surrounded himself with people who only reaffirmed his worst tendencies.
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I'll believe it when he does it...
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The problem with Trump is how erratic he is, a facet of his political persona usually overlooked by both proponents and critics. He says one thing and does another. His proponents praise him to the high heavens not realising that his deeds often don't match his words; and his critics take his often absurd statements at face value and don't realise that he's often more measured in his actions.
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That weapon exhibited neither a fundamentally new capacity nor one we thought the Russians didn't have. The damage was little. The head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, Budanov, even went so far to call it a good sign; the Russians used a new weapon system, but without a payload and gave the Americans a heads-up in advance, which Budanov claims proves that Putin doesn't want to rock the balance. From a military point of view, it was a pointless show of force.
Myself, I'm quite convinced that that test was aimed straight at a Western audience, particularly the German electorate (which is going to the polls soon, asked to chose between a Chancellor who often flirts with appeasement and an opposition leader who's promised to equip Ukraine with advanced new weapons). The Russians have gone to great lengths emphasising that narrative as of late. Russia's foreign minister recently went so far as to call the dithering German Chancellor the only Western leader capable of reason and prudence.
(A word to the wise, if that crook Lavrov calls you smart, odds are you're as dumb as a rock.)
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Unlike the Chinese the russian IRBMs don't have any type of conventional payload currently available. It's either nuclear or nothing and the lack of accuracy shows that it was never designed with a conventional warhead in mind. This was imo purely for optics as @muck said.
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Putin claimed there's a conventional capability being readied for that missile, and I'm actually inclined to believe him.
If, as Budanov has said, this Kedr missile actually carries 6 MIRVs with 6 submunitions each, it might be able to be used as long-range substitute for conventional rocket artillery. The footage I've seen so far strikes me as a bit inconclusive in terms of the system's accuracy; the CEP was too big to allow for a precision strike against a small target.
But it wasn't aweful either. I tried to use geolocation and think all visible hits (18 to 20 by my reckoning) landed in a ~200×300m area. Perhaps smaller. The factory complex they hit is big, but not overly big, and I couldn't find evidence of hits outside the perimeter.
At some point, you could absolutely use that missile conventionally to obliterate something like a division headquarters or a squadron of aircraft being prepped on an airfield tarmac. If that thing is really a variant of the RS-26, its payload would be 800-1,000 kilos. Nothing to go crazy about, but not to be ignored either. If Budanov's assessment is correct, we're talking 30 kilos per submunition, so almost three times the explosive yield of a 155 mm artillery shell (add the projectile's kinetic energy on top of that).
In other words, that thing would give Russia the ability to conduct the equivalent of an artillery battalion striking a target 5,000 kilometres away. That's not bad, not bad at all. And right now, only Aegis Ashore and maybe Arrow-3 can shoot that thing down.
I'm quite convinced a conventional deterrent and conventional strategic capacities are rapidly going to become a thing in this day and age. Iran has proven you can attack a nuclear-armed country so long as you do it right. And remember what Teheran feared the most about Israel's response? Not a potential strike against high-value military or political targets, but against their oil and gas industry.
I suppose this is going to become the new norm. Imagine two Kedrs fired at the port of Rotterdam. Maybe even in a manner as outlined in Putin's November 22 threat to Ukraine's Western backers, i.e. with Russia giving a forewarning so that civilians can get out of harm's way.
The Dutch economy would take a major hit from that; but can you imagine NATO going to war over a destruction of property and maybe a couple of people injured? Politically, this missile does have a potential for escalation. And poses some interesting questions.
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Well, there is some unpredictability within a range. Let's say you are bad people who kill Americans, what would you expect Trump's response to be? It's an unpredictable range of things. He will CERTAINLY not do nothing. But...will he send SEAL 6 in to kill the individual perpetrators......or will he nuke your capitol? Who knows??? Best to not FAFO.
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Fair enough.
And whilst I concede such an approach may have its merits, it's not without risks either. It only works well as long as you're not already embroiled in conflict and your opponent has to make the first move. At other times, you want to maintain a certain level of predictability.
You don't want your opponent to think you may go apeshit and pull all the stops any moment over nothing. Because if you give him that feeling of uncertainty, he will strike first. And even if you're able to defeat him, what good would a needless confrontation do you? The economy doesn't like war. And much of America's debt is owed by Beijing.
As a politician, Trump is very transactional. That's a good thing. If that were his defining trait, it'd make him the most formidable leader of our times. But he does get carried away by his ego at times, and by his desire to appear successful. The Abraham Accords? Good idea. Suspending the Nuclear deal with Teheran? Good idea. Trying to strike a deal with Rocket Man? He really shat the bed with that one.
Let's hope he won't S**t the bed on this.
But frankly, from my point of view, everything seems possible – from him striking a great deal that gets Putin to stand down all the way to some colossal fuckery. Heck, French media recently reported that in the wake of Biden veto-ing the use of Scalp and Storm Shadow, Paris drew up plans what to do should Trump try to force the European nations to cease aiding Ukraine.
That's how unpredictable Trump appears even to America's partners.
And you'll have to understand that after being presented with fait accompli in Afghanistan (Trump negotiating the withdrawal unilaterally), and after Elon Musk virtually denying that Ukraine is a sovereign country, there's quite the apprehension around here that Trump could pull some fuckery out of his arse and even punish those partners who don't like to play ball.
And let me add one more thing, then I shall bother you no more with my opinion about him: Biden didn't understand Putin (despite his protestations to the contrary). Biden was totally the Cold War-rior on this affair, thinking he could contain the problem and win a second arms race. He never saw the ideological component of it, never understood that even though Putin dreams of resurrecting the USSR, it'd be a different USSR than the one Biden spent his career dealing with.
But I'm not so sure that Trump understands Putin either. Trump's flirting with the narrative that Putin is afraid of him doesn't exactly instill me with confidence. Vladimir Putin is a trained KGB killer, stoic, reticent, and bringing a gym everywhere he goes to pump irons. Donald Trump is a Vietnam-dodger, brash and a man of many vices. There's no reason to believe that Putin would fear or respect Trump. America's military might he respects, but its Commander-in-Chief? Nope.
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So, we'll see.
Conversations here are mostly limited to the war in Ukraine, but Trump was elected to fix a host of problems.
He's not President yet, but the mere threat to both Canada and Mexico with tariffs, if they don't control the influx of illegals and fentanyl coming into the US have already gotten results. Trudeau has agreed to close border and Mexico has started turning back caravans of illegals coming through Mexico. EU shifts to buying US energy. Hamas wants to end war - now. Hezbollah and Israel agree to ceasefire. Illegals have started to self-deport. Corrupt government bureaucrats have begun mass retiring.
Putin wants to talk peace with Trump and so does Zelensky.. Putin is also no longer targeting the US Dollar and backs selling oil for US dollars.
I think it's going to be okay.
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Indeed. Hopefully this is true. Both sides are exhausted, and Ukraine needs an edge, both to boost morale, and therefore maybe boost recruitment efforts in the long term and stabilize their situation in the short term.
I mean, the Euros have spent the last 3 years of this conflict proving beyond a doubt that such assistance from them will NEVER be forthcoming. So, as usual, if there is going to be a a game changer, it will have to come from the US.
Of course, expect to hear endless whining and complaining if Trump doesnt come through...
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Someone should call the taliban.....
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I agree nothing to be proud of FFG is kind of a boutique arms manufacturer.
But they did lots of refurbishments in the past.
So in theory they should havd been able to deliver what in essence is the US BATT vehicle so they just assemble the parts provided by subcontractors. Hence maybe the certificate issue.
BATT UMG Armored Military Vehicle | The Armored Group
A mine protected variant of our innovative BATT APC, this urban & off-road platform adds blast protection into its V-shaped underbody, protecting crew.
www.armoredcars.com
Anyway no nice story here while soldiers need the gear.
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