Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[surfpunk]

Russia could have done this back in 2014. And perhaps it would have been better for everyone. Instead,it chose to recognize the coup, transfer weapons to Kiev, surrender opponents to Kiev,аnd messing with Donbas.Why so its up to debate,but it didn't look like Russia was going to change her line of behavior.
The real question here is what could push Russia to change its mind on this issue,and was it changed?

He had such opportunities before. And he calmly ignored them. It is likely that he might have wanted something else then, but this is another question. What is so special about current events?


Its the only real question,if you ask me

As you say going there (at least in Donbass) is going against the will of the people there. These are conflicts where there is nothing to gain.

I think behind Ukraine we are really talking about the "next ones on the list" that are the Baltic countries where large Russian minorities could be used to destabilize perfectly democratic countries. That would be a real "sudeten" moment and Ukraine is the sandbox where lines are trying to be drawn.

of course at the heart of all this is Putin's desire to return to the glory days of the soviet union and remake eastern Europe into Russia's vassal once again....
does anyone actually consider that a possibility?

 

[thelistener]

Omicron knocks UK and eurozone growth to 11-month lows; banknote maker De La Rue warns on profits – business live

Worries over Ukraine tensions and prospect of US interest rate rises hits stocks, wiping out FTSE 100’s early 2022 gains, before a late recovery on Wall Street

www.theguardian.com

Key events

• 1h ago US private sector growth slumped to 18-month low
• 1h ago Wall Street drops at the open
• 3h ago Gas prices jump
• 4h ago European selloff gathers speed as Ukraine worries rise
• 4h ago Bitcoin hits six-month low amid crypto turmoil
• 5h ago Full story: UK business growth hits 11-month low as Omicron chills service sector
• 5h ago Swiss franc hits six-year high against euro, in move to safe-havens

I don't understand what you're trying to say here.
In your mind Russian stock market troubles are on par with the rest of world and arent news or atleast aren't caused by recent tensions?

 

[Fluff]

Maybe we should just do a proper deal, Ukraine joins EU and Nato, Belarus stays with Russia.

Can we go home now?

Ukraine wont be going into Donbass, because its in range of russian arty.

Russia would be nuts to attack Ukraine on the ground, with years to prepare, and a topped up supply of modern ATGM - roof/slat armour is most certainly not going to make the T84/T72 impervious. Most armchair generals reckon on 3 or 4 to 1 for attacking force, right now its around 1 to 1. Ukraine has received all sorts of kit - Russia will have updated some of their kit, but BMP2 seen coming off trains, are simply regarded as death traps by Nato, and that was 20 years ago!

 

[morris]

I don't understand what you're trying to say here.
In your mind Russian stock market troubles are on par with the rest of world and arent news or atleast aren't caused by recent tensions?

Don't worry about it.

 

[SamWell]

Why is Ukraine soldiers suicide rate is on the rise?

Just couple days ago a border guard

Spoiler

View attachment 367072

Mostly people from poor villages in central and western Ukraine are join army.Mostly those who were not taken as guest workers to Poland etc. Many have unresolved problems with alcohol and/or with the law

 

[morris]

Maybe we should just do a proper deal, Ukraine joins EU and Nato, Belarus stays with Russia.

Can we go home now?

Ukraine wont be going into Donbass, because its in range of russian arty.

They can move to London

Ukraine sof can try to very quickly occupy major town and use townsfolk as live shield, then attempt to negotiate minsk3 or some such agreement, that will be political victory of sort for Biden, Jonson and the sock puppet Zelenskiy.

 

[MartinLavin]

of course at the heart of all this is Putin's desire to return to the glory days of the soviet union and remake eastern Europe into Russia's vassal once again....
does anyone actually consider that a possibility?

There is a very popular saying in Russia about Ukraine and all that "glory Soviet Union" S**t: "Please live on your own money" ("Живите на свои").

People who would want to recreate something like SU are diminishing minority here, and I'm pretty sure Putin is not between them.

 

[SamWell]

As you say going there (at least in Donbass) is going against the will of the people there. These are conflicts where there is nothing to gain.

I think behind Ukraine we are really talking about the "next ones on the list" that are the Baltic countries where large Russian minorities could be used to destabilize perfectly democratic countries. That would be a real "sudeten" moment and Ukraine is the sandbox where lines are trying to be drawn.

Fate of the Baltic states depends entirely on their own elites. If they continue their campaigns to close russian schools, pressure russian activists,(Im not even talking about murders and arrests for political reasons) etc. then it will be possible to boil up the situation

 

[1645556315]

I think behind Ukraine we are really talking about the "next ones on the list" that are the Baltic countries where large Russian minorities could be used to destabilize perfectly democratic countries. That would be a real "sudeten" moment and Ukraine is the sandbox where lines are trying to be drawn.

Not sure what are you talking about, but no one ever cares about Baltic states. These countries lost half population without any war. We just need to wait for a several years to get great deserted lands as a buffer zone. ?

Ukraine under the rule of pro-western regime is a repressive nationalists state, where people prohibited speak their native language, teach children own language and culture. Despite these rights declared as a basic human rights by European and world institutions (same with baltic states). Pro-western Ukrainian regime imposed cruel repressions on own people and in the same time rob own country, that is why people leave Ukraine. At least million people leave Ukraine for Russia in the last several years. All this tragedy was started because US was not happy even with moderate pro-western Ukraine prior 2014. They want extremely anti-russian terror regime.

So no one really cares about Baltics states but
One way or another Russia will liberate Ukraine.

 

[surfpunk]

Maybe we should just do a proper deal, Ukraine joins EU and Nato, Belarus stays with Russia.

Can we go home now?

Ukraine wont be going into Donbass, because its in range of russian arty.

Russia would be nuts to attack Ukraine on the ground, with years to prepare, and a topped up supply of modern ATGM - roof/slat armour is most certainly not going to make the T84/T72 impervious. Most armchair generals reckon on 3 or 4 to 1 for attacking force, right now its around 1 to 1. Ukraine has received all sorts of kit - Russia will have updated some of their kit, but BMP2 seen coming off trains, are simply regarded as death traps by Nato, and that was 20 years ago!

so all these troop movements by Russia over the past week and you think they are only at parity with the Ukraine forces in front of them?

 

[SamWell]

of course at the heart of all this is Putin's desire to return to the glory days of the soviet union and remake eastern Europe into Russia's vassal once again....
does anyone actually consider that a possibility?

Everything is possible in this life.
But I doubt that Putin will start doing it right now. He had much more successful opportunities earlier and he did not use them. What has fundamentally changed now?

so all these troop movements by Russia over the past week and you think they are only at parity with the Ukraine forces in front of them?

This happens regularly. For years. This is more like a kind of argument in negotiations,IMHO

 

[MartinLavin]

One way or another Russia will liberate Ukraine.

This is just a wishful thinking. Do you think people in Ukraine want "liberating" from their current facist regime?

You may remember one european country that just in 6 years (33-39) became the most cruel and inhuman regimes in the worlds history. All they needed was a massive nationalist propaganda campaing. And it was even before invention of a TV.
Of course it is an absurd comparison as modern Ukrainians lack a lot of qualities in comparison, but humans can still be fed with propaganda without any limits.

 

[Fluff]

so all these troop movements by Russia over the past week and you think they are only at parity with the Ukraine forces in front of them?

I'll just dial into skynet and check the latest.....

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Any links/articles about this?

Sorry, should have provided sources. *also my statement is poorly worded*

T-72B3s unloaded and now being moved by road in Mglin, Bryansk.
Since these aren't being transported straight to Belarus by train I suppose these are instead going to the Ukrainian border.

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[Fluff]

Lets be honest, there arent many people fighting to get into Russia are there?

So even given the obvious and much reported problems 'the west' has, its still the place most people want to live/be like/await the coming zombie appocolypse/bitcoin crash/whatever.

Perfect -no
Imperfect - yes
Mostly benign to its citizens - yes
Mostly law abiding - yes
Tolerant - mostly yes

 

[SamWell]

This is just a wishful thinking. Do you think people in Ukraine want "liberating" from their current facist regime?

There are a lot of such people
There is,of course,such moment as what exactly is meant by"liberation"and how exactly it will going to happend. But still

 

[Ivan le Fou]

of course at the heart of all this is Putin's desire to return to the glory days of the soviet union and remake eastern Europe into Russia's vassal once again....
does anyone actually consider that a possibility?

Is there an agreed definition as to what would be "glory days of the Soviet Union"?

 

[Fluff]

Is there an agreed definition as to what would be "glory days of the Soviet Union"?

When your Fiat 128 arrived?

 

[NoOne]

NATO holds massive advantages over Russia in many categories, but it is not coincidental that it is Russia's advantages that are most relevant at this particular moment in time, so I do not think that this will end without some major concession on the part of the Western alliance. The question is will there be a gentle off-ramp in order to keep the situation from escalating? I would hope that Ukraine is not used to fuel a proxy conflict as that would be both immoral and risky beyond measure.

Russia has taken careful steps over the past few years to prepare for this moment and has chosen its timing carefully. His internal opposition has been squashed, many foreign journalists have been forced out and Russia can now disconnect from the net at a moments notice, hence framing the narrative and the course of the conflict much more easily . Putin can move expeditiously without the same concerns for public opinion as Western leaders. Then there is the natural gas card, teetering financial markets, China, Covid, infighting amongst Western political parties, etc, etc.

Of course, this is all in the short term. The long game is another matter entirely. Regardless of all of the stated advantages this is still a risky venture. As strong a leader as Putin is, he does not rule in a vacuum. Is there pressure on him to act now?

 

[Ivan le Fou]

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And contrast this with the Biden's approach on things:

US places up to 8,500 troops on alert for possible deployment to Eastern Europe amid Russia tensions

As many as 8,500 US troops have been put on heightened alert for a possible deployment to Eastern Europe as Russian troops mass on Ukraine's border, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Monday.

edition.cnn.com

Biden Weighs Deploying Thousands of Troops to Eastern Europe and Baltics

The president is also considering deploying warships and aircraft to NATO allies, in what would be a major shift from its restrained stance on Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

Deploying 5k US troops to face and deter 100k+ Russian troops will not work.
I will only lead to a possible escalation against a nuclear super power and unavoidable mission creep.

All the while Biden is a CiC who can barely articulate a comprehensive and sensical sentence.


Europe does not really want military action to take place.
Biden is.