Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[AtlanticFriend]

There's a delete button. ?

Also, drunk ignoring delete buttons like a boss.

 

[Celo]

Sure, with nukes, it's a different story, but that would most likely start WW3.

No, Europe is only divided on Ukraine. It's not even a matter of self defence as Ukraine is neither part of EU, nor NATO.
We should not confuse the Wests and Europe's mixed support for Ukraine, with an actual attack on EU or NATO members. Because that's an entirely different scenario altogheter. Nothing binds EU or NATO members to support any country outside of their alliance or union, so they can also not be held accountable for not providing help, as that is not a breach of any agreement. Yet, you see how much the behaviour of certain countries like Hungary, is detested regardless. Even though they are not at all obliged to support Ukraine.
The mutual defense clause as well as Article 5 on the other hand do bind in such eventualities. They oblige all EU member states by treaty, to act jointly, even if one single EU country or NATO member was attacked and all countries agree on that.

Conventionaly I honestly don't think Russia can ever wage a successful war of aggression ( in it's current state at least ) against even certain European countries, much less a combined EU defense.

Sure I see your point but the EU is not a military union, rather an economic union that is transforming into a political confederation. Again, going back to my original point, NATO and Article 5 serve as a deterrent for Russia, if the former did not exist (hypothetically) then Russia would certainly be more emboldened to attack the Baltic countries. I don't see the EU forming a military over night to counter the invasion(s) especially given how dependent Germany is on Russia. The Nuclear piece is critical, France and the UK would not risk a nuclear war and over the Baltic countries, I just don't see it - sorry.

The Defense Clause requires member states to come to the aid and support, so yes we'd see EU countries provide support, sanctions, money, etc. but I don't see the EU nations declaring war on Russia.

NATO does still serve a purpose, and one of those is to counter Russia. Without it, Europe would be more vulnerable and surely the question of the Baltic countries and potentially Moldova and Romania would be up in the air.

 

[bald head & beard]

Supposedly a radio intercept from a downed SU-34 today near Kupyansk.

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[AtlanticFriend]

No offense Mordoror but you have announced for the last two and a half months a Ukrainian collapse based on a more military assessment of the situation that you are almost the only one doing on the board.

TBH, and keeping in mind the fat lady hasn't probably sung yet, Ukraine's pugnacity (and Russia's under-performance) have been utterly flabbergasting. At no point in the opening phase of the conflict did I ever imagine that Russia could be 1) stopped mid-offensive and 2) rolled back to this point. Whoever saw it coming, kudos to your clairvoyance!

 

[Telmar]

TBH, and keeping in mind the fat lady hasn't probably sung yet, Ukraine's pugnacity (and Russia's under-performance) have been utterly flabbergasting. At no point in the opening phase of the conflict did I ever imagine that Russia could be 1) stopped mid-offensive and 2) rolled back to this point. Whoever saw it coming, kudos to your clairvoyance!

I personally thought it would be over fast in the first ten days, only when things started to look static for Russia with their magic 100km long column that was´nt going anywhere did I think that the Ukrainian "partizan" tactics were paying off.

 

[bald head & beard]

How valuable is this target?

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[Telmar]

This is alledgedly radio com between the Moskva and the rescue ships after having been hit. The operator is not on the bridge, says he lost contact with the bridge, that the ship was hit below flotation line and listing is getting worse all the time.

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[TheKiwi]

....

Conclusion : RUA is wasted for sure. UKA is also wasted. One has no means to break through. The other one, no means to push the other out of the country. This is why it ends into a trench warfare with artillery lobbing ordnance heavily each day
But keep your wet dreams of an easy and quick ukrainian victory

I have a lot of respect for the knowledge that you bring to bear Mordoror. But you've been incorrect about the Russian logistical strikes effects, about the Ukrainian artillery situation, about the effectiveness of the BTG system, about the ability of the Russians to create encirclements, about the attack on Kyiv and so forth. There have been others who seem to think that a single missile strike destroys a fuel depot or a railway, or that Russia still has infinity minus1 PGM's left and I'm applying an equal degree of sarcasm to their claims too.

 

[TheKiwi]

Supposedly a radio intercept from a downed SU-34 today near Kupyansk.

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That's a MiG-29 in the image used. Which is exclusively used by Ukraine these days.

 

[bald head & beard]

That's a MiG-29 in the image used. Which is exclusively used by Ukraine these days.

Yes, but the image is not really relevant as it is used only as an illustration. The Ukrainians claimed today that a SU-34 was shot down and they followed up with this recording. I am not so sure how legit it is, but I always find these intercepted comms interesting and I shared it.

 

[Jake84]

I ll try to nail a few things a last time

Uh oh, okay…

Conclusion : RUA is wasted for sure. UKA is also wasted. One has no means to break through. The other one, no means to push the other out of the country. This is why it ends into a trench warfare with artillery lobbing ordnance heavily each day

You’d call that a « conclusion? »

Here’s what transpired so far:

Almighty Russian Army was supposed to defeat « Ukies » (your wording) in literally less than a week. Optimistic figures from Western medias claimed that even three days were sufficient for Russia to take over Kiev and capture/kill Zelenski.

Two and a half months of Ukrainian « fake news » (a term you seem to abhor when it comes from the mouth of leaders like Trump or Bolsonaro or when we were talking Covid but is convenient when it’s about the Ukrainian side.

Only bit I agree with here is that Donbas has been turned into the Somme 1916 somehow and is going to last. Long gone are the days when puffy face Vlad seemingly wanted to erase a country of 40M from the surface of the earth and make it Russia again.

But keep your wet dreams of an easy and quick ukrainian victory

Wer sagt das? Es tut mir leid, in English: who said that it was going to be an « easy and quick » victory for Ukraine?

What’s certain is that it’s a long haul for the Russian army to win a kilometer here and there, as neither side want to give up an inch.

Losing more soldiers in two months of war than in decades of Chechnya and Astan then combined… big almighty Mother Russia is currently humiliated in front of the World.

In the meantime, Xi better reconsider taking Taiwan, and I hope he’s smarter than Vlad as Taiwan has quite a mighty army too, Murican equipments and US Navy close enough which could mean outright war with the US.

I don’t dislike you Mordo but you’re clearly talking out of your butt here and I have no idea where does your Russkia stronk propaganda comes from.

 

[Mordoror]

I have a lot of respect for the knowledge that you bring to bear Mordoror. But you've been incorrect about the Russian logistical strikes effects, about the Ukrainian artillery situation, about the effectiveness of the BTG system, about the ability of the Russians to create encirclements, about the attack on Kyiv and so forth. There have been others who seem to think that a single missile strike destroys a fuel depot or a railway, or that Russia still has infinity minus1 PGM's left and I'm applying an equal degree of sarcasm to their claims too.

I have to make some correction
I am not on the bandwagon crew that say that Russian logistical strikes do what it is announced. I know very well how much air combat sorties are needed to render useless logistical depots or lines. If something, LInebacker or Desert Storm or Kosovo air campaign showed that.

Incorrect about the Ukrainian artillery situation ? i adressed only the fact that it was getting short in 122 and 152 mm shells and that Poles and Czech shelves were getting empty too. That's why they rarely applied sustained fire at upper (bataillon or brigade level), furthermore to avoid counter batterie or helo R&D. At least on most footage we have. With one exception, the river crossing turkey shot. Performed with new shiny 155 mm that got plentyn of ammo with

Incorrect about the effectiveness of the BTG system ? I beg to differ. 1- the russian army was not engaged in BTG formations in the early days but under its organic organization which is one of the many reasons for its failure.
2- the Russian BTGs are not done for the kind of warfare occuring right now. I am (and there were other posters too) among those aknowledging that their organization was too mechanized heavy but without enough shock infantry. Too much teeth, not enough tail against an opponent using a defense in depth and urban hedghogs, positions that has to be cleaned by assault infantry and assault engineers. Why do you think they are reorganizing their BTG since mid March, ramping up the infantry content and separating the associated artillery batteries that end up operated as separate/independant bataillons/brigades

I was on the other hand indeed incorrect in the ability of the RuA to perform an encirclment or kessel. The time for maneuver warfare is long gone. Now it is a crawling grinding war

As for the Battle of Kiev, i was indeed wrong. If the 16thCAA spearhead had made the junction with the VDV on Hostomel in time we however wont have this discussion and possibly not even 1000 pages of thread. That's war. It was a bet, done under maneuver in depth doctrine. It failed for a lot of reasons, one being that strategic surprise was not achieved, thanks to US intel. But on the early Kiev battle, i was no more wrong than people paid for such kind of analyses. While, here, you enjoy my input for free

 

[Mordoror]

Uh oh, okay…



You’d call that a « conclusion? »

Here’s what transpired so far:

Almighty Russian Army was supposed to defeat « Ukies » (your wording) in literally less than a week. Optimistic figures from Western medias claimed that even three days were sufficient for Russia to take over Kiev and capture/kill Zelenski.

Two and a half months of Ukrainian « fake news » (a term you seem to abhor when it comes from the mouth of leaders like Trump or Bolsonaro or when we were talking Covid but is convenient when it’s about the Ukrainian side.

Only bit I agree with here is that Donbas has been turned into the Somme 1916 somehow and is going to last. Long gone are the days when puffy face Vlad seemingly wanted to erase a country of 40M from the surface of the earth and make it Russia again.



Wer sagt das? Es tut mir leid, in English: who said that it was going to be an « easy and quick » victory for Ukraine?

What’s certain is that it’s a long haul for the Russian army to win a kilometer here and there, as neither side want to give up an inch.

Losing more soldiers in two months of war than in decades of Chechnya and Astan then combined… big almighty Mother Russia is currently humiliated in front of the World.

In the meantime, Xi better reconsider taking Taiwan, and I hope he’s smarter than Vlad as Taiwan has quite a mighty army too, Murican equipments and US Navy close enough which could mean outright war with the US.

I don’t dislike you Mordo but you’re clearly talking out of your butt here and I have no idea where does your Russkia stronk propaganda comes from.

Well OK
I'd make it clear a last time because a lot of you are so "unbiased" that you have lost all critical mind and play the RussiaPropaganda card a bit too easily
So some points :
Russia is lying on its losses : fair, granted, we all agree on this
Ukraine is lying on its losses : ho no, damn, i am now a putinbot
Russia is plastering the SM with BS : well, yes, it's russia
Ukraine is plastering the SM with BS (Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island, Admiral Essen sunk, Admiral Makarov sunk, Support ship sunk and i can go on and on) : well it's legit

What we have on this thread is a bunch of poles who have a axe to grind against Russia, a couple of Hungarians and Bulgarians that hate anything russian related, a few brits that plaster the discussion with usual jingoit wording and .... that's all. Do you read some cold minded analyses ? No
Well, yes, one is trying and ironicaly it is Ivan
And me, on the military aspect of the war


And when all intel reports begin to point that losses ratio may be something around 2 to 1 rather than 5 or 10 to 1 like it was boasted here by all Westernstronk crew members, that means that this war is not going as easy as it sounds in there for the Ukrainians
Which doesnt means that it goes well for the Russians
But it seems that nuances/shades of the events are escaping you


It is much more easy to dismiss any comprehensive attempt of reading the events at military level with the info we have at hand by throwing a "but you are talking out of your ass", yes ?


Well, you know what. I'd leave it there.the Hooligan gathering boasting for its prefered football team. Once dust settle, i will however come back and take a malignant pleasure to pull a few snouts in their own dung

Cheers in the meantime

 

[Jake84]

Cheers, I’ll reply more lengthy later but right now bedtime. I don’t mind to butt head with you at all as it makes the conversation lively at least.

À plus tard.

 

[Fluff]

Well OK
I'd make it clear a last time because a lot of you are so "unbiased" that you have lost all critical mind and play the RussiaPropaganda card a bit too easily
So some points :
Russia is lying on its losses : fair, granted, we all agree on this
Ukraine is lying on its losses : ho no, damn, i am now a putinbot
Russia is plastering the SM with BS : well, yes, it's russia
Ukraine is plastering the SM with BS (Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island, Admiral Essen sunk, Admiral Makarov sunk, Support ship sunk and i can go on and on) : well it's legit

What we have on this thread is a bunch of poles who have a axe to grind against Russia, a couple of Hungarians and Bulgarians that hate anything russian related, a few brits that plaster the discussion with usual jingoit wording and .... that's all. Do you read some cold minded analyses ? No
Well, yes, one is trying and ironicaly it is Ivan
And me, on the military aspect of the war


And when all intel reports begin to point that losses ratio may be something around 2 to 1 rather than 5 or 10 to 1 like it was boasted here by all Westernstronk crew members, that means that this war is not going as easy as it sounds in there for the Ukrainians
Which doesnt means that it goes well for the Russians
But it seems that nuances/shades of the events are escaping you


It is much more easy to dismiss any comprehensive attempt of reading the events at military level with the info we have at hand by throwing a "but you are talking out of your ass", yes ?


Well, you know what. I'd leave it there.the Hooligan gathering boasting for its prefered football team. Once dust settle, i will however come back and take a malignant pleasure to pull a few snouts in their own dung

Cheers in the meantime

I was beginning to think I wouldn’t get a mention…..

If we compare shades of deceit, and I try to be as fair as possible, but ukr has been more truthful, especially on the Moskva. Of course there are lies, manipulations, such is war.

Again casualties, it’s not a game, ukr could lose 200k, as long as it survives as a nation, it wins. Russia set out to remove ukr as a nation.

I read the military, and Russia rows back on what it wanted, now it just annoys ukr with random strikes.

Donbas, crimea, as to ukr recapturing them, who knows, but the current situation, and the flow off the war, points to ukr achieving more than Russia, no matter what putin wants, or wishes.

And of course the poles hate the Russians, poles see what they could have always been, had Russia not held them back. And just as U.K. goes big, because of Salisbury, so Poland senses a weakness in Russia, and goes big. Such is international politics.

Meanwhile all sides wait for putin to die……then we see some real fireworks….

 

[Musashi]

Incorrect about the Ukrainian artillery situation ? i adressed only the fact that it was getting short in 122 and 152 mm shells and that Poles and Czech shelves were getting empty too

That's correct. The only EU countries where 152mm shells are still produced are Poland, Czechia and Bulgaria. As you pointed out, the Ukrainians use more than we manage to produce working on 3 shifts.
Ukraine suffers from a very low amount of fuel and that's why Ukrainian troops are less mobile than the Russian ones.

 

[TheKiwi]

I'm not particularly convinced that Ukraine is much suffering from fuel shortages. There is nothing in their on battlefield behaviour that suggests they do. At most we have some fuel rationing for civilian use - something that the most remarkable part of it is that it wasn't being done from the start.

EDIT: Just as a by, I am not sure I've seen anyone on the site take seriously the Ghost of Kyiv.

 

[muck]

'ES&T' reports that the Czech T-72 M1's donated to Ukraine will be substituted with Leopard 2's at Germany's expense. A bilateral agreement to that effect, also including ammunition and training services, was struck between Prague and Berlin today. A first delivery of 15 refurbished Leopard 2 A4's for training purposes will be made shortly, the German MoD saying that further substitutions are already in the works. (Source)

@av405

 

[Chazman]

Russia plans to turn Mariupol into a resort town, now that they've destroyed it. I'm certain tourist from all over the world will flock there.


Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18

Kateryna Stepanenko and Karolina Hird

May 18, 6:15 pm ET



Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a resort city, depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place. Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin stated that DNR authorities are planning to level Azovstal after completing its capture.[1] Azovstal was a major element of Mariupol’s economy before the war because of its unique function as a full-cycle metallurgical complex, the 10,000 jobs associated with production at the plant, the billions of dollars of foreign exchange earnings and taxes it generated, and its production output of 7,000 tons of steel, 6 million tons of iron, and 4.5 million tons of rolled metal, according to the Mariupol City Council.[2] Pushilin stated that the DNR intends to rebuild Mariupol to be a “resort city,” while admitting that 60% of the structures in Mariupol have been destroyed to the point where they cannot be rebuilt.[3] The announced plan to turn Mariupol into a center of tourism and leisure following the complete destruction of a major center of economic activity in Mariupol, is indicative of the damage that Russian troops have inflicted on themselves through the destruction of Mariupol. Russia does not need another resort town on the Black Sea. It does need the kind of hard currency that a plant like Azovstal had generated. This announcement epitomizes the kind of Pyrrhic victories Russian forces have won in Ukraine, to the extent that they have won victories at all.

 

[CemalPasha]

Greece seeks to join F-35 program as it lobbies against Turkey F-16 sale

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited the White House and Congress this week to make to make his country’s case for acquiring the F-35 stealth fighter jet while lobbying against Turkey’s attempts to upgrade and acquire its aging fleet of F-16 aircraft.

www.defensenews.com

Which Parts they gonna make tzaiki MRE?