Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Fluff]

Sure if you look twitter or YT, Ukraine is winning
But reports are also emerging about their casualties (very quickly removed from the net, strangely /sarcasm)
50-80 KIA/day and 300 to 400 WIA/day from the beginning of the war
So something about 40 000 casualties already for the UKA
Unsustainable in the long term and hindering any serious counter attack prospect

This isnt football.

Even if Ukraine losses more people than Russia - which I very much doubt, given what we have seen of their respective tactics - it looks at the moment like it will be a Ukrainian victory, to have defeated an invading Russian(2nd strongest army in the world - ROFL) in absorbing and repulsing such an attack, Ukraine will come out as the victor. Russia by their own hand, becomes a laughing stock and byword for incompetence and lack of comprehension of their incompetence - cue for Mr Rumsfeld there, there are known incompetence's, and then there are the unknown incompetence's(these are the worst!!)

5000 dead, for a standing army of what 250K? Bolstered by 500K local defense people, and 100K returning from abroad, and 25K foreign volunteers?

If by 'no serious counterattack' you mean not leaping from their trenches and charging russian lines, then please pay attention to the fact that Ukr has reached the Russian border - the next phase of this war is the Russian withdrawal. Going to be interesting to see how it will be spun as a victory.

 

[Fluff]

I didn't really get what you were getting at, since I don't see how it's related to Finland / Sweden in NATO. But commenting on what you said, I think what will stick is Putin's blunder and the new unity of the "west".
Zelensky's legacy also will also be judged on what will happen after Ukraine's inevitable victory, so we're not done here yet.

I am very positive that Putin will be done after this war, though. Could have stepped down after 2014 and probably been a Russian hero, but that's not what dictators generally do. Mussolini didn't stop in Ethiopia, Hitler didn't stop in Poland ... they tend to dig their own graves.

I think many books will be already being written - from how I trained the ukr infantry, to how I dressed Zelensky, and everything inbetween.

I predict Putin will die bravely on the operating table, in the next few weeks - his last breath asking for the brave russian troops to be brought home.....

 

[Mordoror]

This isnt football.

Even if Ukraine losses more people than Russia - which I very much doubt, given what we have seen of their respective tactics - it looks at the moment like it will be a Ukrainian victory, to have defeated an invading Russian(2nd strongest army in the world - ROFL) in absorbing and repulsing such an attack, Ukraine will come out as the victor. Russia by their own hand, becomes a laughing stock and byword for incompetence and lack of comprehension of their incompetence - cue for Mr Rumsfeld there, there are known incompetence's, and then there are the unknown incompetence's(these are the worst!!)

5000 dead, for a standing army of what 250K? Bolstered by 500K local defense people, and 100K returning from abroad, and 25K foreign volunteers?

If by 'no serious counterattack' you mean not leaping from their trenches and charging russian lines, then please pay attention to the fact that Ukr has reached the Russian border - the next phase of this war is the Russian withdrawal. Going to be interesting to see how it will be spun as a victory.

This isn't indeed football (although a lot of you make it sounds lke a Hool meeting)
I leave you at your "unbiased" tactical analysis.
I am just saying that the level of amateurism, armchair coaching and self intoxication of urr durr Stronk vs Rustland is amusing on a military board
Your post has the level of thought of a video game player

I ll try to nail a few things a last time

40000 K casualties over a 200 000 active forces + 100 000 reserves is, oh, just a 13% of losses. In a war that is not ended.

No serious counter attack is when you advance in a void (which was the case northern of Karkyiv). Strangely Ukie dont advance much when the russian forces in front on them are not withdrawing. Strange isn't it ? Or maybe advancing in a Flandrers 1916 like X10 battlefield, is a bit more difficult (for both sides) than what belived YT channels show

Ukies screaming for more arty, shells, drones, tanks, SAMs, should ring a bell about the amount of expended hardware

Russia withdrawal ? From Crimea ? better stockpile sunscreen 50000

etc etc

Conclusion : RUA is wasted for sure. UKA is also wasted. One has no means to break through. The other one, no means to push the other out of the country. This is why it ends into a trench warfare with artillery lobbing ordnance heavily each day
But keep your wet dreams of an easy and quick ukrainian victory

 

[bald head & beard]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

I can't really think of any prosperous tourist destinations which are part of an internationally isolated and unrecognized regions....but whatever floats their boat. On the example of Crimea we can see that relying only on Russian domestic tourism does not really work out well and to make things worse for those that would be looking to rely on Russian tourists, the Russian economy is projected to lose 1/6 of it's value this and next year.

On top of that is the fact that tens of thousands of people have died or will never return, that the jobs killed by the invasion will not be reversed in many years (the city doesn't have the workforce or infrastructure to accommodate mass tourism right away) which will cause emigration even in times of peace.... this city is dead and will not recover in our lifetimes as long as it is part of Donbabwe.

Anyways, look at this below. How could anyone with an IQ above 70 could think that having close ties with Russia is more beneficial than the west? Lunganda and Dombabwe are poised to be the biggest shitholes in Europe for generations to come.

 

[Telmar]

This isn't indeed football (although a lot of you make it sounds lke a Hool meeting)
I leave you at your "unbiased" tactical analysis.
I am just saying that the level of amateurism, armchair coaching and self intoxication of urr durr Stronk vs Rustland is amusing on a military board
Your post has the level of thought of a video game player

I ll try to nail a few things a last time

40000 K casualties over a 200 000 active forces + 100 000 reserves is, oh, just a 13% of losses. In a war that is not ended.

No serious counter attack is when you advance in a void (which was the case northern of Karkyiv). Strangely Ukie dont advance much when the russian forces in front on them are not withdrawing. Strange isn't it ? Or maybe advancing in a Flandrers 1916 like X10 battlefield, is a bit more difficult (for both sides) than what belived YT channels show

Ukies screaming for more arty, shells, drones, tanks, SAMs, should ring a bell about the amount of expended hardware

Russia withdrawal ? From Crimea ? better stockpile sunscreen 50000

etc etc

Conclusion : RUA is wasted for sure. UKA is also wasted. One has no means to break through. The other one, no means to push the other out of the country. This is why it ends into a trench warfare with artillery lobbing ordnance heavily each day
But keep your wet dreams of an easy and quick ukrainian victory

No offense Mordoror but you have announced for the last two and a half months a Ukrainian collapse based on a more military assessment of the situation that you are almost the only one doing on the board.

Maybe the humour coming of other posters has shadowed the seriousness of their own assessments that up to now for the most part have proven correct.

 

[Telmar]

Apparently rumours of Ukrainians having crossed the Donets river are correct and they are able to ship weapons.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Musashi]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Zed’s dead:

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

27 Spanish diplomats have been expelled as well:

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Mordoror]

No offense Mordoror but you have announced for the last two and a half months a Ukrainian collapse based on a more military assessment of the situation that you are almost the only one doing on the board.

Maybe the humour coming of other posters has shadowed the seriousness of their own assessments that up to now for the most part have proven correct.

"Seuls les imbéciles ne changent pas d'avis"

I announced a collapse of the UKA in the early days with the datas i had at hand. Not different from the assessments of more professional intelligence communities (US and Western agencies that gave Ukraine 3 days before falling)
I was wrong like they were (although if the blunder in the North had worked, this would have ended there)

I over estimated the speed the russiand could take to close the pocket in Donbass. Obviously the defense in depth of the Ukies is very good, multilayered, intelligently done versus a russian army that is behaving like its soviet counter part in 1941, not like its counter part in 44

But i think that a lot of people are fooling themselves because of the SM echo chamber. The Ukies don't have it easy and they are suffering. This is not a one sided war. And i think that Bliken speech is premature (although it is just a parroting of what he said 15 days ago and what he will probably say again in 15 days)

I don't see Ukies winning this depending of what are the victory aims

Pushing the russians out of Donbass ? Nope. They will have to attrite the russian army to the point that the war becomes unstainable in Russia. Which is a political decision. All speeches in Russia points toward an hardening of the situation, not a softening, despites the huge losses suffered
But let's say somehow UKA manages to repel the russian forces from Donbass. I always said that DNR and LPR can be thrown under the bus without too much tears. Not the same thing with Crimea which is part of RF by russian law. So if the aim is to remove the russians from all ukrainian territories occupied since 2014, prepare for a long war and a very serious risk of a conflict that may derail further

 

[Musashi]

Ukrainian thanks for Czech military hepl and Ukrainian message in Czech at Ukrainian missile as revenge for the occupation of Czechoslovakia in 1968

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

To put the things into perspective, a Polish general said the Warsaw Pact deployed 460-480,000 troops and 6300 tanks in Czechoslovakia in 1968, plus there were 2 East German divisions on standby. Ukraine has 4 times as big population comparing to Czechoslovakia's population n 1968 plus nearly 5 times bigger area, but Russia has not deployed even remotely close amount of troops and military hardware during the invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Mordoror]

To put things into perspective again

001 — Postimages

postlmg.cc

This is in Lemonde based on the speech of Ukrainian Diplomatic Dept Head
60 to 100 KIA and 400 WIA / day means half a batallion out each day
Western intelligence assessments (and OPSINT) say 75% of a russian bataillon lost on average each day
The difference is not enormous and quite logical (russians on offensive will lose more)
The Ukrainian have gathered their reserves (NG units).
The russiand so far refuse it for political reasons
Until when ?
In any attrition conflict (the way this war has turned into) the one with the largest manpower pool wins
Let's see how this all unfolds

 

[Telmar]

"Seuls les imbéciles ne changent pas d'avis"

I announced a collapse of the UKA in the early days with the datas i had at hand. Not different from the assessments of more professional intelligence communities (US and Western agencies that gave Ukraine 3 days before falling)
I was wrong like they were (although if the blunder in the North had worked, this would have ended there)

I over estimated the speed the russiand could take to close the pocket in Donbass. Obviously the defense in depth of the Ukies is very good, multilayered, intelligently done versus a russian army that is behaving like its soviet counter part in 1941, not like its counter part in 44

But i think that a lot of people are fooling themselves because of the SM echo chamber. The Ukies don't have it easy and they are suffering. This is not a one sided war. And i think that Bliken speech is premature (although it is just a parroting of what he said 15 days ago and what he will probably say again in 15 days)

I don't see Ukies winning this depending of what are the victory aims

Pushing the russians out of Donbass ? Nope. They will have to attrite the russian army to the point that the war becomes unstainable in Russia. Which is a political decision. All speeches in Russia points toward an hardening of the situation, not a softening, despites the huge losses suffered
But let's say somehow UKA manages to repel the russian forces from Donbass. I always said that DNR and LPR can be thrown under the bus without too much tears. Not the same thing with Crimea which is part of RF by russian law. So if the aim is to remove the russians from all ukrainian territories occupied since 2014, prepare for a long war and a very serious risk of a conflict that may derail further

The Ukrainians only need to get to the point where Russians lose their appetite to stay in Donbass.

Granted Russians are stubborn but there may be a point where there is bigger benefit in letting Donbass go with some guarantees

I also do not believe in Crimea but any negotiation begins at a point that is utterly unacceptable to the other party in order to obtain what is simply disadvantageous to it in the end

 

[Mordoror]

The Ukrainians only need to get to the point where Russians lose their appetite to stay in Donbass.

Granted Russians are stubborn but there may be a point where there is bigger benefit in letting Donbass go with some guarantees

I also do not believe in Crimea but any negotiation begins at a point that is utterly unacceptable to the other party in order to obtain what is simply disadvantageous to it in the end

So we agree
They cannot kineticaly thrown the russians out of Donbass
It ends in an attrition situation. Ukrainians have to inflict unsufferable losses to russians. The question is politicaly what is the end point for unsufferable losses for them ......

 

[Fluff]

This isn't indeed football (although a lot of you make it sounds lke a Hool meeting)
I leave you at your "unbiased" tactical analysis.
I am just saying that the level of amateurism, armchair coaching and self intoxication of urr durr Stronk vs Rustland is amusing on a military board
Your post has the level of thought of a video game player

I ll try to nail a few things a last time

40000 K casualties over a 200 000 active forces + 100 000 reserves is, oh, just a 13% of losses. In a war that is not ended.

No serious counter attack is when you advance in a void (which was the case northern of Karkyiv). Strangely Ukie dont advance much when the russian forces in front on them are not withdrawing. Strange isn't it ? Or maybe advancing in a Flandrers 1916 like X10 battlefield, is a bit more difficult (for both sides) than what belived YT channels show

Ukies screaming for more arty, shells, drones, tanks, SAMs, should ring a bell about the amount of expended hardware

Russia withdrawal ? From Crimea ? better stockpile sunscreen 50000

etc etc

Conclusion : RUA is wasted for sure. UKA is also wasted. One has no means to break through. The other one, no means to push the other out of the country. This is why it ends into a trench warfare with artillery lobbing ordnance heavily each day
But keep your wet dreams of an easy and quick ukrainian victory

I’ll expand.

Ukr are not so stupid as to mount a frontal attack on dug in Russian troops. They will hold them, and attrite them.

What I was suggesting is that Ukraine is getting more access to the Russian border. Has Russia deployed enough forces along the border to stop ukr going on a shopping trip into Russia?

Ukr has been very adept, and given both sides originally started with the same playbook, this is a massive change for ukr. They don’t try to hold ground, they use drones, hit and run etc.

So what is Russia going to do if ukr puts 20,000 troops into Russia, to destroy government buildings etc? For sure the ukr will be really really nice to civilians it meets, take lots of reporters along, etc.

I hope you follow my point. Russia is no longer setting the battlefield, nor the rules. I honestly don’t think the current Russian army knows what’s going on, nor can it cope with the constantly evolving situation and tactics.

 

[Fluff]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

I can't really think of any prosperous tourist destinations which are part of an internationally isolated and unrecognized regions....but whatever floats their boat. On the example of Crimea we can see that relying only on Russian domestic tourism does not really work out well and to make things worse for those that would be looking to rely on Russian tourists, the Russian economy is projected to lose 1/6 of it's value this and next year.

On top of that is the fact that tens of thousands of people have died or will never return, that the jobs killed by the invasion will not be reversed in many years (the city doesn't have the workforce or infrastructure to accommodate mass tourism right away) which will cause emigration even in times of peace.... this city is dead and will not recover in our lifetimes as long as it is part of Donbabwe.

Anyways, look at this below. How could anyone with an IQ above 70 could think that having close ties with Russia is more beneficial than the west? Lunganda and Dombabwe are poised to be the biggest shitholes in Europe for generations to come.
View attachment 386813

The main employer will be replaced by a park? Great plan….

 

[muck]

Not related to this conflict, but the Bundeswehr struggles with the digital communication.

Bundeswehr: Inspekteur des Heeres fordert abhörsichere Kommunikation - WELT

„Es fehlt ganz einfach an der Fähigkeit, Daten und Sprache geschützt zu übermitteln“, sagt der Inspekteur des Heeres, Generalleutnant Alfons Mais, über das größte Problem der Bundeswehr. Die Defizite auf deutscher Seite störten schon jetzt die Zusammenarbeit mit Verbündeten.

www.welt.de

A long story short: the allies refuse communicating with German troops due to the latter lacking a digital and encrypted communication.

In Mali, they communicated stopping a German vehicle, while they used an unencrypted text in Lithuania.

That's a bit of a misrepresentation, no offence. They "refused" to use the open channel to which they'd been pointed, opting for verbal communication instead. The bottom line is the army doesn't have enough secure radios for some platforms (most notably the ageing Kat I). So, whenever too many devices have broken down, they have to rely on runners or radio operators with man-borne radios to relay information instead. Apparently, that didn't work either in those two incidents (for whatever reason that may be).

It's one hell of a tohubohu … though we mustn't forget that the same general complaining now wasn't painting any bleak pictures merely a year ago. I daresay the recent ubiquity of the Inspector of the Army in German media has a lot to do with the generals' wrangling for "their" piece of the €100B pie.

Germanys problem ist the procurement agency.

Yes-ish. I mean, that place has been at the root of a great many ills but here they're blameless.

Last year they finally struck a sizeable contract with Elbit for crypto modules, I must have posted that article in the dedicated thread. The major obstacle here was (still is) the consecutive breakdown of two time-robbing programmes for a joint communications infrastructure first with France, then the Netherlands. Protectionism on part of the involved countries, disagreements over the costs and backwards compatibility issues prompted each partner to go for a national solution. And only once it'd become clear the Dutch would surge ahead and buy their own tech was a national scheme revived.

We can take this discussion over to the dedicated thread if you care for it.

No offense Mordoror but you have announced for the last two and a half months a Ukrainian collapse based on a more military assessment of the situation that you are almost the only one doing on the board.

Maybe the humour coming of other posters has shadowed the seriousness of their own assessments that up to now for the most part have proven correct.

Exactly. And far be it from me to invoke political correctness, but for you @Mordoror to use terms like "ukies" doesn't seem to suggest you're entirely unbiased yourself. Besides, there is no such thing as an unwinnable war. A victory of Ukraine has always been within the realm of possibility.

Especially since all they have to do is hold out. Which is easier said than done, I'll grant you that, but the fact is a defender with the sole objective of beating back an attack enjoys a considerable tactical advantage by default. It'd be even fair to say that Russia has already lost this war on a strategic level since Putin's original goal of unseating Ukraine's government and wiping the country off the map seems virtually unattainable at this point.

 

[Telmar]

The main employer will be replaced by a park? Great plan….

The main theme will to be avoid getting blown up by unexploded ordinance.

Much more adrelanin than even Chernobyl in the nineties

 

[Mordoror]

I’ll expand.

Ukr are not so stupid as to mount a frontal attack on dug in Russian troops. They will hold them, and attrite them.

What I was suggesting is that Ukraine is getting more access to the Russian border. Has Russia deployed enough forces along the border to stop ukr going on a shopping trip into Russia?

Ukr has been very adept, and given both sides originally started with the same playbook, this is a massive change for ukr. They don’t try to hold ground, they use drones, hit and run etc.

So what is Russia going to do if ukr puts 20,000 troops into Russia, to destroy government buildings etc? For sure the ukr will be really really nice to civilians it meets, take lots of reporters along, etc.

I hope you follow my point. Russia is no longer setting the battlefield, nor the rules. I honestly don’t think the current Russian army knows what’s going on, nor can it cope with the constantly evolving situation and tactics.

If the Ukrainian make that mistake, it will give an excellent excuse to VP to declare full war mobilization
The Ukies are not stupid. They won't do that. So what they achieved ? They reached the border and .... ? tadaaaa And ?
The pushed back few units into Russia
But to capitalize on the move they would have to threaten Vovchansk. Which they dont
Yet

 

[Musashi]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Mordoror]

That's a bit of a misrepresentation, no offence. They "refused" to use the open channel to which they'd been pointed, opting for verbal communication instead. The bottom line is the army doesn't have enough secure radios for some platforms (most notably the ageing Kat I). So, whenever too many devices have broken down, they have to rely on runners or radio operators with man-borne radios to relay information instead. Apparently, that didn't work either in those two incidents (for whatever reason that may be).

It's one hell of a tohubohu … though we mustn't forget that the same general complaining now wasn't painting any bleak pictures merely a year ago. I daresay the recent ubiquity of the Inspector of the Army in German media has a lot to do with the generals' wrangling for "their" piece of the €100B pie.Yes-ish. I mean, that place has been at the root of a great many ills but here they're blameless.

Last year they finally struck a sizeable contract with Elbit for crypto modules, I must have posted that article in the dedicated thread. The major obstacle here was (still is) the consecutive breakdown of two time-robbing programmes for a joint communications infrastructure first with France, then the Netherlands. Protectionism on part of the involved countries, disagreements over the costs and backwards compatibility issues prompted each partner to go for a national solution. And only once it'd become clear the Dutch would surge ahead and buy their own tech was a national scheme revived.

We can take this discussion over to the dedicated thread if you care for it.Exactly. And far be it from me to invoke political correctness, but for you @Mordoror to use terms like "ukies" doesn't seem to suggest you're entirely unbiased yourself. Besides, there is no such thing as an unwinnable war. A victory of Ukraine has always been within the realm of possibility.

Especially since all they have to do is hold out. Which is easier said than done, I'll grant you that, but the fact is a defender with the sole objective of beating back an attack enjoys a considerable tactical advantage by default. It'd be even fair to say that Russia has already lost this war on a strategic level since Putin's original goal of unseating Ukraine's government and wiping the country off the map seems virtually unattainable at this point.

Ah come on
Not you, giving lecture on PC
The amount of diminutive national names on this board is so large that i cannot even list them all (Poles, Norks, Russkis, Mericans ...)
But if it makes me biased into a "not biased at all thread", then so be it

 

[Fluff]

So we agree
They cannot kineticaly thrown the russians out of Donbass
It ends in an attrition situation. Ukrainians have to inflict unsufferable losses to russians. The question is politicaly what is the end point for unsufferable losses for them ......

Depends what you are attriting. If the river crossing was hit my smart 155 munitions, then Ukr may be able to hit every tank/APC in an area, and could muster enough of their own tanks and men to push through the local russian line. How many times they need to do this before the Russians cry uncle, we dont know.

The mere fact that on the map you posted, a lot of the changes are Russian units moving to re-enforce the russian front - so it holds against Ukr attacks.......just a reminder, its supposed to be ukr defending.....