Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Hiryu2.0]

A fő munkáltatót park váltja fel? Remek terv….

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Zed’s dead:

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27 Spanish diplomats have been expelled as well:

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EU countries that have not expelled Russian diplomats since the start of the war in Ukraine.

 

[Fluff]

View attachment 386837

EU countries that have not expelled Russian diplomats since the start of the war in Ukraine.

my hungarian is improving.....

 

[Telmar]

...
They cannot kineticaly thrown the russians out of Donbass
...

Forcing them into a retreat...well perhaps.. Killing all russian troops to the last man and destroying every tank to the last bolt no.

But then again I'm not sure such a victory ever happened.

 

[Sinex]

"Seuls les imbéciles ne changent pas d'avis"

I announced a collapse of the UKA in the early days with the datas i had at hand. Not different from the assessments of more professional intelligence communities (US and Western agencies that gave Ukraine 3 days before falling)
I was wrong like they were (although if the blunder in the North had worked, this would have ended there)

I over estimated the speed the russiand could take to close the pocket in Donbass. Obviously the defense in depth of the Ukies is very good, multilayered, intelligently done versus a russian army that is behaving like its soviet counter part in 1941, not like its counter part in 44

But i think that a lot of people are fooling themselves because of the SM echo chamber. The Ukies don't have it easy and they are suffering. This is not a one sided war. And i think that Bliken speech is premature (although it is just a parroting of what he said 15 days ago and what he will probably say again in 15 days)

I don't see Ukies winning this depending of what are the victory aims

Pushing the russians out of Donbass ? Nope. They will have to attrite the russian army to the point that the war becomes unstainable in Russia. Which is a political decision. All speeches in Russia points toward an hardening of the situation, not a softening, despites the huge losses suffered
But let's say somehow UKA manages to repel the russian forces from Donbass. I always said that DNR and LPR can be thrown under the bus without too much tears. Not the same thing with Crimea which is part of RF by russian law. So if the aim is to remove the russians from all ukrainian territories occupied since 2014, prepare for a long war and a very serious risk of a conflict that may derail further

There were more people on this board not going with the intelligence assessment of SOME western agencies and even more have joined the bandwagon soon after, once the Russian blunder began to emerge (this took days, not weeks). And I still think Ukraine will drive Russians out of Ukraine proper.

The only part I partly agree on is Crimea being a wild card, like Russia in earnest threatening WMD before Crimea is rolled up. With WMDs taken out of the equation, I am sure Ukraine with all the support it has will also regain Crimea. The thing I don't really know is the time it would take. I don't know if it would be wise to risk an all out over Crimea, though ... but I'd assume in the case nukes are on the table and it's "only" about Crimea, we, the West, might also ask the Ukrainians for a break and to reconsider before going all out. If intelligence determines nukes are of the table, I see Crimea becoming Ukrainian again as well. Actually not sure how I feel on that, since Crimea is the only region which would have voted Russian even without the manipulated referendum, so .... I'm split on that.

 

[Chazman]

As has been mentioned, UA must cut off Vovchansk. This will complicate Russian logistics immensely. UA will continue to nibble away to the North. If there is a major UA offensive, I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the south, probably around Kherson. Donbas will be a war of attrition.

As far as how many losses the Russians can take, I don't think they are concerned about the loss of their young men, but at a certain point they won't have the manpower to continue.

 

[Celo]

Agree with the rest, but completely disagree on that one.
Disregarding nuclear weapons, single small countries like Baltics may not have a realistic chance on their own. But collectively Europe would kick Russia's butt and the mutual defense clause would be enacted if Russia attacked any European country, regardless of NATO membership. So inevitably, it would be a war against the whole of EU anyway. Even if NATO didn't exist.

Why disregard nuclear weapons? Hypothetically, Europe has more active troops, a much bigger budget, industrial base, etc. and it could wage war against Russia conventionally and win. However, Europe is divided, look at the issue with imposing an oil embargo on Russia and the split THAT has created. Not to mention, any hypothetical military alliance in Europe would function on the basis of agreement, so you'd have Russia compromise some small country like Hungary to block it all. I also don't see the French deploying 200-300k troops to fight the Russians, unless the hypothetical European defense alliance is strong.

 

[Gordus]

Why disregard nuclear weapons? Hypothetically, Europe has more active troops, a much bigger budget, industrial base, etc. and it could wage war against Russia conventionally and win. However, Europe is divided, look at the issue with imposing an oil embargo on Russia and the split THAT has created. Not to mention, any hypothetical military alliance in Europe would function on the basis of agreement, so you'd have Russia compromise some small country like Hungary to block it all. I also don't see the French deploying 200-300k troops to fight the Russians, unless the hypothetical European defense alliance is strong.

Sure, with nukes, it's a different story, but that would most likely start WW3.

No, Europe is only divided on Ukraine. It's not even a matter of self defence as Ukraine is neither part of EU, nor NATO.
We should not confuse the Wests and Europe's mixed support for Ukraine, with an actual attack on EU or NATO members. Because that's an entirely different scenario altogheter. Nothing binds EU or NATO members to support any country outside of their alliance or union, so they can also not be held accountable for not providing help, as that is not a breach of any agreement. Yet, you see how much the behaviour of certain countries like Hungary, is detested regardless. Even though they are not at all obliged to support Ukraine.
The mutual defense clause as well as Article 5 on the other hand do bind in such eventualities. They oblige all EU member states by treaty, to act jointly, even if one single EU country or NATO member was attacked and all countries agree on that.

Conventionaly I honestly don't think Russia can ever wage a successful war of aggression ( in it's current state at least ) against even certain European countries, much less a combined EU defense.

 

[Fluff]

There were more people on this board not going with the intelligence assessment of SOME western agencies and even more have joined the bandwagon soon after, once the Russian blunder began to emerge (this took days, not weeks). And I still think Ukraine will drive Russians out of Ukraine proper.

The only part I partly agree on is Crimea being a wild card, like Russia in earnest threatening WMD before Crimea is rolled up. With WMDs taken out of the equation, I am sure Ukraine with all the support it has will also regain Crimea. The thing I don't really know is the time it would take. I don't know if it would be wise to risk an all out over Crimea, though ... but I'd assume in the case nukes are on the table and it's "only" about Crimea, we, the West, might also ask the Ukrainians for a break and to reconsider before going all out. If intelligence determines nukes are of the table, I see Crimea becoming Ukrainian again as well. Actually not sure how I feel on that, since Crimea is the only region which would have voted Russian even without the manipulated referendum, so .... I'm split on that.

There are a lot of posibilities. As victory approaches for Ukraine, at least in terms of getting to the 2014 situation, Putin may threaten the nuke issue more. But still an amazing reversal for Ukraine.

At this point, I;d suggest politics has to come in, Putin could die at any time, from many different causes, and of course we may not be told the real cause anyway. As to what happens, who knows, most likely in my view is Lavrov takes over, as a safe pair of hands, and a long term replacement is sought. At the same time LAvrov could withdraw the troops in ukr, blame putin for everything, and try to placate the west, to get some trade going. Maybe we get the russian version of free and fair elections, with a lot of candidates, so maybe a lot of stages to get through.

This is the time to bring up the last regions, ukr gives them some autonomy, no Ukr troops(thus a DMZ is created) no Russian troops, EU observers deployed. EU then agrees to buy some gas.

A lot of pain for everyone there to swallow, at different times.

Ukraine taking Crimea by force is probably the worst outcome. I think Zelansky already hinted at some federation or similar. The visuals of ukr v ukr etc,

 

[pigmode]

Greece seeks to join F-35 program as it lobbies against Turkey F-16 sale

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited the White House and Congress this week to make to make his country’s case for acquiring the F-35 stealth fighter jet while lobbying against Turkey’s attempts to upgrade and acquire its aging fleet of F-16 aircraft.

www.defensenews.com

...Rep. Mike McCaul, R-Texas, the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, warned Erdogan’s blockade of the two potential new NATO allies could sink the F-16 sale.Greece has been a very good ally with Ukraine, but then again so has Turkey,” McCaul told Defense News. “The big hiccup with Turkey is when Erdogan came out indicating that he may not support Finland [and] Sweden being in NATO. That would be problematic for Turkey.”

McCaul suggested Turkey could ship its S-400 system to Ukraine, which has desperately sought advanced air defense systems against Russian aerial power. In return, he said the U.S. could send Turkey a Patriot missile system — an arrangement similar to the one Washington struck with Slovakia after it dispatched its S-300 system to Ukraine.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Putin Sends Russians on Wild Hunt for Dollars in Black Market

As the ruble’s official exchange rate parts ways with its value on the street, dollars are becoming hard to find.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Minimalist]

Ukr has been very adept, and given both sides originally started with the same playbook, this is a massive change for ukr. They don’t try to hold ground, they use drones, hit and run etc.

I hope you follow my point. Russia is no longer setting the battlefield, nor the rules. I honestly don’t think the current Russian army knows what’s going on, nor can it cope with the constantly evolving situation and tactics.

It is beneficial for Ukr that the Ru troops are more spread out over the territory. Most of the Ru troops are demoralized, it was not an easy walk as the generals promised them, they do not want to die in vain. The Ru state repaid loans and mortgages to Ru soldiers for their part in the war, +salary and bonuses, so some benefit from just participating.

As has been mentioned, UA must cut off Vovchansk. This will complicate Russian logistics immensely. UA will continue to nibble away to the North. If there is a major UA offensive, I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the south, probably around Kherson. Donbas will be a war of attrition.

This is too dangerous. For this step, you need to neutralize the nearest airfields. no weapons and I think they are well protected now.
but the only option left is to buy cigarettes for Ru soldiers

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[Connaught Ranger]

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[Mike1976]

Lunganda and Dombabwe are poised to be the biggest shitholes in Europe for generations to come.
View attachment 386813

Moldova is moving up in the world!

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Zed’s dead:

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27 Spanish diplomats have been expelled as well:

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Not having to live in Russia. And Russians think they are punishing these diplomats instead of doing them a favor? ?

Conventionally I honestly don't think Russia can ever wage a successful war against Europe, or more precisely EU. They would bite on granite.

EU GDP $17.9 Trillion (nominal; 2022), population of 447,706,209 (EU27, 1 January 2020 prov. est.)
UK GDP $3.376 trillion (nominal; 2022 est.), population of 67,081,234 (June 2020)
US GDP $25.347 trillion (nominal; 2022), population of 332,595,523 (2022-04-01)

Russia GDP $1.71 trillion (nominal, 2021 est.), population of 146,749,000 (2020)

If we look at the GDP in terms of purchasing power (PPP) the UK is only slightly behind Russia.

A regional power with nukes.

 

[Musashi]

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[Connaught Ranger]

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[Connaught Ranger]

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[Redav]

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[AtlanticFriend]

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More than 34 potential hostages freed, thank you Mr Lavrov. We were due some diplomatic deportations anyway, I may be wrong but IIRC Russia hadn't reciprocated for the last batch of Moscovite envoys we expelled some months ago.

 

[AtlanticFriend]

Well, that's actually the least concerning part, given that via EU, Finland and Sweden were de facto NATO members beforehand. No real change on the ground here, just a formal declaration of allegiance

Alliance, not allegiance. And NATO brings into play transatlantic solidarity, while the EU does not.