Politics South China Sea Thread

[NZM305]

In the wake of Biden calling it genocide back at election time.

Xinjiang: New Zealand MPs back 'watered-down' concern about China's Uighurs, but three parties believe 'genocide' occurring ​

Reality is that her morals are on the right side of the exports to china.

The problem is its not like the opposition would be any different. Can you really imagine the National party throwing Fontera under the bus by saying "F*** china"?

 

[primer]

The same National party that had an actual chinese spy for an MP?

 

[NZM305]

Exactly.

 

[Redav]

How China Overtook the U.S. as the World’s Major Trading Partner

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-u-s-worlds-trading-partner/

 

[Picanha]

I don't know what these graphics shall illustrate? Its the same as oNE BilLiOn mArkEt

China lacks so much in so many areas all those simple memes don't explain anything at all.

Its a self fulfilling prophecy narrative pushed by the CCP to attract investment.

In reality it depends on how much they need you. But thats a whole other topic.

China is far away from being able to mount large strategic operations. Half of its population would instantly hunger for example.

And the vast majority of its population is way poorer and neglected than many know. Not a good prerequisite to engage in strategic warfare.

The population is not the same as in 1950 where you could brutally and indiscriminately muster and lose troops.

They would ask you (CCP) why this is needed.

On other news:

First German warship in almost two decades enters South China Sea

A German warship sailed into the South China Sea on Wednesday for the first time in almost 20 years, a move that sees Berlin joining other Western nations in expanding its military presence in the region amid growing alarm over China's territorial ambitions.

www.reuters.com

 

[morris]

U.S. builds new software tool to predict actions that could draw China's ire

U.S. military commanders in the Pacific have built a software tool to predict how the Chinese government will react to U.S. actions in the region like military sales, U.S.-backed military activity and even congressional visits to hotspots like Taiwan.

www.reuters.com

 

[Bellucciman]

Forgive me but I've just skimmed through the thread, my questions are on CCP attack strategy for a Taiwan invasion:
Will their air force conduct massing bombing raids and strategic conventional missile strikes as well as navel bombardment?
Will they follow with a land assault via airborne and troop carrier assault ships?

I have no doubts that the communists will mount an invasion of Taiwan, reason being is that we (the USA) are so politically corrupt and weak. Sanctions will do absolutely S**t and mean nothing to the CCP. Unless US bases/ships/jets are hit during an attack I firmly believe that we aren't going to do S**t to stop them. However I also think that the Taiwanese are very underrated and would destroy a lot of the CCP military however we all know that the communists will just keep throwing away their human beings until they achieve victory. We know they have no regard for their countrymen's lives.

I'm not sure what countries would ally with Taiwan, would Vietnam or the Philippines would come to their aid during an invasion. I know the northern borders of Vietnam are a sore spot with relations between the two countries (VN & CCP). Maybe Japan, the UK & Australia? I just don't know but I am unfortunately confident that the USA will sit back and watch the show and not get involved and that is just morally wrong. Makes me sick to my stomach.

https://project2049.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Chinas-Top-Five-War-Plans_Ian_Easton_Project2049.pdf

 

[morris]

However I also think that the Taiwanese are very underrated

Photos - Republic of China (Taiwan) Military Forces

May 22nd, 2019 Anti-air missiles and anti-submarine rockets were used in Wednesday’s live-fire drill, the defence ministry says. Photo: CNA CM-32 "Clouded Leopard"

www.militaryimages.net

 

[morris]

Taiwan should destroy TSMC says top US Army journal paper

No more chip factories would surely change Beijing's mind about unification

www.theregister.com

The US Army War College showed the paper was its most popular of the year, when it revealed it topped a list of the most downloaded papers of 2021 from its quarterly academic journal Parameters.

The bright idea comes from two American scholars. Their reasoning goes:
Potential war with the US over Taiwan is no longer a deterrent for China as Beijing believes its military would dominate. Therefore, to make the island unappealing, it needs to be perceived as presenting an "unacceptable economic, political, and strategic costs upon Beijing." As it currently stands, Taiwan appears to be an enticing technology powerhouse ripe for absorption. However, destroying TSMC, an important supplier for China, would create a desperately unwanted major economic crisis on the mainland and make China chipless while it was also engaged in a war effort.

 

[Wheke C9]

Here is the actual paper. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters

In case anyone wants to read the context of what they've written rather than a, frankly, S**t write up on a 10th rate website.

It's the main drive of the paper but not the only one. It's a novel approach- and an interesting one- but it doesn't take any cultural assessments into consideration.

 

[primer]

BHP's Newcastle steelworks were wired with explosives during WWII with the order to destroy the plant to be given in the event of a Japanese invasion. But were explosives placed in other parts of the city and what happened to the remnants of Japanese shells that landed in Newcastle? Newcastle Museum wants your help!

 

[Flagg]

Taiwan should destroy TSMC says top US Army journal paper

No more chip factories would surely change Beijing's mind about unification

www.theregister.com

The US Army War College showed the paper was its most popular of the year, when it revealed it topped a list of the most downloaded papers of 2021 from its quarterly academic journal Parameters.

The bright idea comes from two American scholars. Their reasoning goes:
Potential war with the US over Taiwan is no longer a deterrent for China as Beijing believes its military would dominate. Therefore, to make the island unappealing, it needs to be perceived as presenting an "unacceptable economic, political, and strategic costs upon Beijing." As it currently stands, Taiwan appears to be an enticing technology powerhouse ripe for absorption. However, destroying TSMC, an important supplier for China, would create a desperately unwanted major economic crisis on the mainland and make China chipless while it was also engaged in a war effort.

The open source idea actually originated with a guy I know named Steve Blank:

Steve Blank The Coming Chip Wars

A version of this article appeared in War on the Rocks. Controlling advanced chip manufacturing in the 21st century may well prove to be like controlling the oil supply in the 20th. The coun…

steveblank.com

I, and a few others, have been inspired by Steve’s commentary and have been pushing the TSMC as strategic decisive/vital ground ever since in our circles of influence well prior to the Parameters article, but it’s great to see more coverage:

Politics - South China Sea Thread

The US economy is dependent on US consumers. The CCP economy is dependent on US consumers and US investment...and imported energy and food. And US consumers consume products made in what country again? Now add to the fact that the other countries would also increase their goods to come up with...

militaryimages.net

Search results for query: Tsmc

militaryimages.net

As well as in non-published military innovation content for staff only at Marine Corps University.

My personal opinion is that TSMC represents a new form of strategic fence sitting, deterrence, and continuity of security guarantee.

Sabotaging or destroying 5nm(and soon 4/3nm) chip fabs in Taiwan is super easy.

It could be done non-kinetically with bags of voestalpine powder dispersed like fire suppressant to contaminate the fabs and ensure 0% wafer yield out to infinity. it could be done with thermite/dems charges to destroy irreplaceable and non-reproducible EU/US semicon mfg equipment, it could be done from great distance by the full suite of US PGMs.

A tangential effort would be the mid 6 to mid 7 figure pay cheques and immediate green card/citizenship TSMC staff with critical skills would earn on exfil from Taiwan to US, Japan, and EU.

China imports more Taiwanese silicon than energy or food, north of $350 billion a year.

10X that as immediate, ongoing, and unrecoverable economic damage that would represent a potentially existential economic depression for the CCP.

It is not hyperbole to say that TSMC advanced fabs produce legit magic the world relies on that is unable to be counterfeited of produced anywhere else in the world.

Taiwan sits on a razor sharp fence between China and the US led west.

TSMC is the only thing that allows that fence sitting to continue. The only thing.

CCP dies without TSMC (so China will not invade conventionally/kinetically, but will still attempt other aggressive measures)

US loses to CCP forever if CCP seizes TSMC in functioning order (so US security guarantee for Taiwan is guaranteed)

It is mutual assured economic destruction.

3 years ago I was a semi finalist in a fictional scenario writing competition:

Distr/Action: The Application of One Platform, One Network(OP/ON) GeoDigital Strategy | Small Wars Journal

The Mad Scientist team executed its 2019 Science Fiction Writing Contest to glean insights about the future fight with a near-peer competitor in 2030. We received 77 submissions from both within and outside of the DoD. This story was one of our semi-finalists and features a futuristic look at...

smallwarsjournal.com

I wanted to write a scenario where the US lost, so I left out the TSMC silicon angle.

But what I focused on then, and remains relevant now, is that if enough domestic friction in China occurs, it will ultimately lead to external distraction, such as Taiwan.

Right now China will be focused on the upcoming Olympics and Digital Yuan rollout(a critical component of my scenario above) so they will not act against Taiwan and risk further global embarrassment prior to execution.

But the CCP will be painfully aware they have an extremely dangerous silicon vulnerability that they cannot fully mitigate for at least a decade, even with a Manhattan Project/B29 level of national effort.

So I suspect they will be working hard on new doctrine and strategy that fits beneath the threshold of war to get what they want, because Taiwan(and the US/EU by extension) have them by the silicon nuts.

 

[morris]

@Flagg
It seems to me that CCP long term strategy in regard of Taiwan is appeal to Chinese nationalism and merging of ruling elites rather then destruction threat.

 

[Chazman]

@Flagg
It seems to me that CCP long term strategy in regard of Taiwan is appeal to Chinese nationalism and merging of ruling elites rather then destruction threat.

Elite merger or even capture is a CCP strategy.

 

[Flagg]

@Flagg
It seems to me that CCP long term strategy in regard of Taiwan is appeal to Chinese nationalism and merging of ruling elites rather then destruction threat.

Kinetic invasion of Taiwan by China would guarantee a massive reduction in quality of life and standard of living of most Chinese, so it would be economic and political suicide.

Action by CCP, beneath the threshold of kinetic war, is certain.

War beneath the threshold of detection is nearly as certain, especially of the non-kinetic(cultural, cyber, diplomatic, economic, information, legal, network, political, technological) domains and possibly discrete covert/clandestine/unconventional kinetic warfighting domains.

I would expect China/CCP to play to their strengths, which include decisive and unified action focused on long-term return on investment.

If I was Xi, I wouldn’t just want to directly match/counter the combined Taiwanese/US/EU lock in semicon magic, but I would want to aggressively chip away at US Dollar, and to a far lesser extent, Euro currency utilisation.

Hopefully, China’s ham fisted diplomacy has scared enough people away from the concept of Digital Yuan that it slows them down.

But that will likely only hinder US Led FVEY/NATO adoption.

Developing world, minus India, is ripe for aggressive Chinese Yuan attack.

Putin’s Russia is in a super odd place, positioning itself as an “ally” of China, but at long-term risk of being absorbed into China’s network.

 

[morris]

Putin’s Russia is in a super odd place, positioning itself as an “ally” of China, but at long-term risk of being absorbed into China’s network.

As I wrote somewhere before Russia geographical position in between Occident and Orient where the twain meet is both blessing and curse at the same time.

 

[Junglejim]

Nice theories, but then war is seldome done by rational people. China never wanted Taiwan because of its chip plants, it wants Taiwan cause its Taiwan. More often in these discussion it is looked at at a Western POV. North Vietnam wanted the South, nit because of its harbor, it wanted South Vitenam because it is Vietnam.... all the talks about way or life or economy did not matter.

The US is not too keen on pushing war cause I hope there are commanders there that see that the battle in Taiwan will be bloody and it will bring down economies. Now the Chinese are poorer than the US and can bear suffering better. They can eat dogs and bats for sustainance.... can you?

As for Taiwan, look at the article on how bad the state of the Armed Forces is due to corruption.

 

[TheKiwi]

There is a difference between eating dog/bat and eating nothing. China's killed 60+ million of its own people discovering that and they really aren't in much of a better position than they were in the 1960's except that now they're free to import food instead of insane self sufficiency attempts.

 

[Chazman]

There is a difference between eating dog/bat and eating nothing. China's killed 60+ million of its own people discovering that and they really aren't in much of a better position than they were in the 1960's except that now they're free to import food instead of insane self sufficiency attempts.

The criminal CCP would happily kill 60 million more of their own people to stay in power. Maybe even 600 million more. The first folks to pay the price will always be the "Laobaixing" , (common folk). And the hard working Laobaixing are waking up to that fact. They are seeing their hard earned life savings simply vaporized overnight in the scam investments they were depending on.

Killing millions of people is one thing, but controlling 1.4 billion angry people ( minus the 10-100 million party apparatchiks) may be another.

The CCP economy is a fake house of cards and the Chicom elites know it. The CCP goal now is to complete their "Elite Merger" with globalists before total economic collapse.

Boy, that 5-10-20-who knows how many trillion dollar Biden bill, courtesy of several generations of US taxpayers, which just failed to pass, would sure have helped these scoundrels out.

 

[primer]

Intel is spending $20 billion to build two new chip plants in Arizona