Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[PEMM]

@Chazman @Chazman Are you just now finding out about Meirsheimer?

This was discussed a lot back in 2022.

EUIdeas | John Mearsheimer’s lecture on Ukraine: Why he is wrong and what are the consequences

euideas.eui.eu

Or the various Russian justifications for the war?

 

[Chazman]

@Chazman @Chazman Are you just now finding out about Meirsheimer?

This was discussed a lot back in 2022.

EUIdeas | John Mearsheimer’s lecture on Ukraine: Why he is wrong and what are the consequences

euideas.eui.eu

Or the various Russian justifications for the war?

I've definitely heard of him and have probably seen him interviewed, but not really familiar with his body of work.

 

[thelistener]

Please explain.

I believe I already did. He, and ironically people like chomsky, long for the days of the cold war with spheres of influence in Europe.
He has been wrong in many of his predictions during the collapse of the soviet union.

Now this following is not my idea, but in short. Realism is a theory built on the idea of conflict through the striving for power between nation-states. But it first failed during the cold war when Iran had its revolution. Ayatollah Iran was neither a poker chip nor a poker player.
Realism cannot handle islamism as a political force. realism as theory is utterly useless in confronting political institutions like islamism which do not rely and are not built upon the concept of the nation state.
Realism also dismisses internal development. Realism is a tempting theory, almost like an strategy game with mathematical calculations on predictive models. That is why it couldnt predict the fall of the soviet union and also why they long for the day of the soviet era geopolitics and Europe.
After the soviets fell, realism was placed on the backseat and the professors like you just watched (and kissinger etc.) have been trying to
rebuild their credibility after the berlin wall collapsed. This is because the collapse of the soviets disproved the core tenet of the realist theory. ideologies matter this point is reiterated here though the striving of the various peoples of eastern europe to be liberated from communist tyranny, what followed was an unprecedented era of democratisation, peace and stability in eastern europe (unlike the professor predicted in 1990) the idea of national cooperation between the poker chips (in this case the EU) outside of a sphere of influence tears the realist idea of a great poker game of power to shreds. And that's why they hate it so much.

edit. this was Mearsheimers prediction in 1990 and his solution was to give Germany nukes to create an artificial balance of power. Which at least for me tells all i need to know, how he saw and clearly still sees the world. Too simplistic and dismissive of other forces at play to be taken seriously.

edit 2. That's not to say that sometimes realist theory gets things right. But overall it's just too simplistic view of geopolitics.

edit 3. If this is new to anybody, one should look how these cold war realists have contempt for transnational organisations.

 

[Chazman]

I believe I already did. He, and ironically people like chomsky, long for the days of the cold war with spheres of influence in Europe.
He has been wrong in many of his predictions during the collapse of the soviet union.

Now this following is not my idea, but in short. Realism is a theory built on the idea of conflict through the striving for power between nation-states. But it first failed during the cold war when Iran had its revolution. Ayatollah Iran was neither a poker chip nor a poker player.
Realism cannot handle islamism as a political force. realism as theory is utterly useless in confronting political institutions like islamism which do not rely and are not built upon the concept of the nation state.
Realism also dismisses internal development. Realism is a tempting theory, almost like an strategy game with mathematical calculations on predictive models. That is why it couldnt predict the fall of the soviet union and also why they long for the day of the soviet era geopolitics and Europe.
After the soviets fell, realism was placed on the backseat and the professors like you just watched (and kissinger etc.) have been trying to
rebuild their credibility after the berlin wall collapsed. This is because the collapse of the soviets disproved the core tenet of the realist theory. ideologies matter this point is reiterated here though the striving of the various peoples of eastern europe to be liberated from communist tyranny, what followed was an unprecedented era of democratisation, peace and stability in eastern europe (unlike the professor predicted in 1990) the idea of national cooperation between the poker chips (in this case the EU) outside of a sphere of influence tears the realist idea of a great poker game of power to shreds. And that's why they hate it so much.

edit. this was Mearsheimers prediction in 1990 and his solution was to give Germany nukes to create and artificial balance of power. Which at least for me tells all i need to know, how he saw and clearly still sees the world. Too simplistic and dismissive of other forces at play to be taken seriously.
View attachment 522790

edit 2. That's not to say that sometimes realist theory gets things right. But overall it's just too simplistic view of geopolitics.

edit 3. If this is new to anybody, one should look how these cold war realists have contempt for transnational organisations.

Thanks, but what is the difference between American and European realism?

 

[thelistener]

Thanks, but what is the difference between American and European realism?

That was just rhetoric on my part that perhaps didn't translate well into English. I was trying to say that realism as a theory is a very misleading term and geopolitical "realism" is something very different here from the theory of realism in geopolitics.

 

[Fluff]

The US population have mostly been isolationist through the years. It was a few leaders that brought it on stage as a super power. On that I dont blame Trump he is only giving the masses what they want.

Most dont know the consequences but it is what they want

Tesla will suvive, its practically all over China and Hong Kong. Apple maybe not so much.

I’m not disagreeing, but last time I visited, the local lady driver, about 40 years old, had never left the USA. Certainly in the U.K., by the age of 12 most kids have been on a school trip to France or Germany.

This isn’t ignorance or isolationism, it’s the scale of USA, and the cost to then travel abroad.

 

[Fluff]

Japanese have a form of strike, where they carry notes around their neck, but work. Italian one is where they don't do anything extra.

This could be a Russian strike - setting the workplace on fire.

In English we call this work to rule.

You tell me to arrive at 9am. I do. I then sit in the locker room until you come and tell me what to do.then I do exactly that, and then stop.

 

[Junglejim]

I’m not disagreeing, but last time I visited, the local lady driver, about 40 years old, had never left the USA. Certainly in the U.K., by the age of 12 most kids have been on a school trip to France or Germany.

This isn’t ignorance or isolationism, it’s the scale of USA, and the cost to then travel abroad.

Im familiar with the scale of the US, having driven from the West to the East coasts. What I meant is as a population, they have always been a reluctant world power. It's practically an imperial power that somehow is ashamed or doesnt want to be one. From the Spanish American war till Vietname and even Iraq, its government has to lie to its people to get them onboard. It took the Japanese to directly attack them to convince American not to half ass WW2.

 

[Chazman]

That was just rhetoric on my part that perhaps didn't translate well into English. I was trying to say that realism as a theory is a very misleading term and geopolitical "realism" is something very different here from the theory of realism in geopolitics.

I do find Meirsheimer interesting as I found Kissinger interesting. These are/were smart guys. You don't have to agree with everything they say or like everything they say, for them to be thought provoking.

Anyway, bottom line is a lot of people had their fingers in the Ukraine pie for a long time - pushing and pulling. That doesn't mean Russia is not culpable for their actions. But it gives you perspective.

 

[Chazman]

"Not a peacekeeping force"

Almost seems like a softening position.

International 'reassurance' force planned for Ukraine ceasefire

The force would focus on providing Ukraine with air cover to keep its skies safe and a naval presence in the Black Sea to encourage trade.

www.bbc.com

I'm surprised we haven't gotten any comments here.

I pictured this French/UK/other force as acting as a trip wire near what may be a DMZ. Now it seems the plan is to keep them in western Ukraine. Also, only 20,000 troops? Seems a bit light. No?

 

[Chazman]

Was a transport full of missiles, hit?

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[primer]

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[Sinex]

Was a transport full of missiles, hit?

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everything with NAFO or Slava in it contains traces of ideological bs, so take it with a grain of salt.

however, UA scored a huge hit there and GRU proved more resourceful than FSB in this conflict and more than once they showed their capacity to operate within Russia itself. I'd say it is not unlikely. They def hit an ammo storage of some sort, as secondary explosions tell. And cruise missiles sure are a more juicy target than heaps of basic artillery shells.

And Russia once again shows incompetence by congregating people, material and ammunitions in one place as an invitation to strike. They had three years and are still doing it. I remember the convoy towards kiev basically stating "strike here please". There has been little evolution since apparently.

 

[Picanha]

They probably constantly lose people with knowledge and have to replace them with newbies.

What do I know but I know that 3 years of ruthless war (disregarding own losses) must have taken a toll.

Sheds also not a good light on the war machine economy seems more like tugging along with financial and other restraints probably different resources.

 

[Picanha]

I'm surprised we haven't gotten any comments here.

I pictured this French/UK/other force as acting as a trip wire near what may be a DMZ. Now it seems the plan is to keep them in western Ukraine. Also, only 20,000 troops? Seems a bit light. No?

I will comment on that once something palpable materializes.

So far its the Russian proof chicken game this time its the pick apart the contract tiny slices chicken...to not have to adhere to that.

But I'll let you find out.

Putler has manouvred himself in such a corner thats difficult for him to move.

Not that during quiet peace times people start questioning what was done and what was lost..

Notwithstanding the glowing hot war economy.

 

[Picanha]

Im familiar with the scale of the US, having driven from the West to the East coasts. What I meant is as a population, they have always been a reluctant world power. It's practically an imperial power that somehow is ashamed or doesnt want to be one. From the Spanish American war till Vietname and even Iraq, its government has to lie to its people to get them onboard. It took the Japanese to directly attack them to convince American not to half ass WW2.

But that is/was what made it so great.

Everyone can do their thing without crazy dictators.


The US and the EU and all other Western allies like UK AUS and JP somehow are/were a bullwark against that crazyness.

Sad to see this being torpedoed for no good reason.

But I do understand that hesitation when sitting on another continent why engage in potentially deadly adventures?

 

[Picanha]

I’m not disagreeing, but last time I visited, the local lady driver, about 40 years old, had never left the USA. Certainly in the U.K., by the age of 12 most kids have been on a school trip to France or Germany.

This isn’t ignorance or isolationism, it’s the scale of USA, and the cost to then travel abroad.

There,are lots of people never having left the US many don't have passports.

When boarding in the US for transatlantic flights you have to pass these automated exit points and nearly always an american passenger has passport issues. Because doing it for the first time.

There is even a booth at least I saw one in Detroit to help with that.

 

[Picanha]

Kremlin Accuses Europe of Planning ‘Militarization’ - The Moscow Times

The Kremlin on Thursday accused European countries of prioritizing military buildup over peace efforts, as top Western military officials gathered in Britain to discuss support for Ukraine.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Sure sure I would send Taurus just for this S**t talk. So that it gets a bit of substance.

 

[Picanha]

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Well thats worth fighting and dying for I don't see much difference from before and after to be honest...

The road is low maintenance and the rest of the quasi slum was blown away by air pressure...

These people is the reason why RFE and Co exist.

They're Putler pawns living in misery agitated against the West to solidify the dictators seat.

Man not even a paved road.

But all dictator pardises look like this. Go to google maps and look at even China. Not far away from the shiny glass palasts dirt and not cared for public spaces with deteriorating infrastructure.

 

[Soldier35]

Footage from an archival battle filmed in November 2024 near the village of Zeleny Shlyakh in the Kursk region of Russia. In the video, two BMD-4M airborne combat vehicles of the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment of Russia break through to a Ukrainian army stronghold located in a forest belt. It is worth noting that there is very little video of the combat use of the BMD-4M. The BMD-4M has been produced since 2015. During the forced march, the BMD-4M is actively fired upon by Ukrainian artillery. Upon reaching the stronghold, the BMD-4M disembark the troops and return to their original positions. The battle at the stronghold itself is not shown; it is reported that it was captured.

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