Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[muck]

The UK MoD recently declared Russian dead/wounded surpassed 700,000. I thought 100K and 200K were obscene numbers. Over the last almost 3 years, many of our colleagues on this board have noted (and I paraphrase here) that high casualty rates are not necessarily considered unacceptable to the average Russian citizen. Accordingly, I too have come to the conclusion that they are correct, though it is still hard to fathom. 700,000. Wow.

I can only repeat myself, go over to Mediazona, which is a dissident Russian journalist investigative website. They found a methodology to estimate Russia's losses based on inheritances bequeathed by military-aged males (an information publicly available in Russia). And they were able to verify it. They said that 16,000 Wagner mercenaries had died in the Battle of Bakhmut. Then a document was leaked containing the names of 17,000 dead Wagnerites who died at Bakhmut.

According to them, Russia now loses 250 men killed every single day of the conflict, and a further 1,000 are wounded. Every single day. Granted, statistically speaking most of them will be lightly wounded and return to duty (for reference sake, German doctrine assumes that 80% of all WIA return to duty within 5 days). But that would still mean that their forces loses around 500 men for good on a daily basis.

For reference's sake part deux, the army of Nazi Germany suffered 2,000 KIA/WIA/MIA per day in 1944.

 

[Musashi]

you mean kaliningrad? My boy scout troop could defend that border.

You pretend to know Poland better than I do. Alternatively, you believe it would be like the WW2 in East Prussia in 1944-1945, not realising how much Poland has spent on infrastructure in the last 35 years.

No way does Poland want hundreds of km of border with Russia.

Poland has a 232-km border with RuZZia which is already "hundreds of km", while we have a 418-km border with Belarus which is, as I said, RuZZia's byatch. It's a total of 650km.

Poland is not sending 5% of its GDP to Ukraine, because it 'dislikes' Russia.

No, but your rationale is plainly wrong. The most desirable route to attack Poland from the East is using the Belarusian territory.
The terrain favours an invader, there are hardly any forests, and there are good roads. Also, it's much easier and faster to reach major cities from that direction. Each and every RuZZian attack on Poland has come from Belarus. What you are trying to tell me is that if Germany and France were enemies, France should be afraid of the perspective of Germany taking over Switzerland, as the Germans might use the Swiss territory to attack France.
Do you believe the Germans would be stupid enough to choose this option, even if Switzerland was as weak as Burkina Faso?

 

[Fluff]

You pretend to know Poland better than I do. Alternatively, you believe it would be like the WW2 in East Prussia in 1944-1945, not realising how much Poland has spent on infrastructure in the last 35 years.

Poland has a 232-km border with RuZZia which is already "hundreds of km", while we have a 418-km border with Belarus which is, as I said, RuZZia's byatch. It's a total of 650km.

No, but your rationale is plainly wrong. The most desirable route to attack Poland from the East is using the Belarusian territory.
The terrain favours an invader, there are hardly any forests, and there are good roads. Also, it's much easier and faster to reach major cities from that direction. Each and every RuZZian attack on Poland has come from Belarus. What you are trying to tell me is that if Germany and France were enemies, France should be afraid of the perspective of Germany taking over Switzerland, as the Germans might use the Swiss territory to attack France.
Do you believe the Germans would be stupid enough to choose this option, even if Switzerland was as weak as Burkina Faso?

I think we agree. The only advantage of Belarus not being Russia, is that Russia would be visible moving divisions into Belarus. So Poland would get a bit of warning.

 

[Chazman]

Yes, I have no doubts and it has nothing to do with Alaska. U.S. voters, including yourself, don't consider helping Ukraine their priority.

‘Forget Crimea,’ Trump advisor tells Zelensky ceding territory is vital for peace in Ukraine

Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine, as described by Lanza, directly contradicts Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ unveiled last month which ruled out ceding any territory to Russia.

www.wionews.com

Weren't you the guy who said it openly a few months ago? You referred to the U.S.A. as a burning house.

It's just that I've heard prognosticators predict with confidence everything that Trump is going to do, including give back Alaska, since he fears Putin so much.

If you are 100%, maybe put some money on Polymarket. Easy money.

 

[Fluff]

I can only repeat myself, go over to Mediazona, which is a dissident Russian journalist investigative website. They found a methodology to estimate Russia's losses based on inheritances bequeathed by military-aged males (an information publicly available in Russia). And they were able to verify it. They said that 16,000 Wagner mercenaries had died in the Battle of Bakhmut. Then a document was leaked containing the names of 17,000 dead Wagnerites who died at Bakhmut.

According to them, Russia now loses 250 men killed every single day of the conflict, and a further 1,000 are wounded. Every single day. Granted, statistically speaking most of them will be lightly wounded and return to duty (for reference sake, German doctrine assumes that 80% of all WIA return to duty within 5 days). But that would still mean that their forces loses around 500 men for good on a daily basis.

For reference's sake part deux, the army of Nazi Germany suffered 2,000 KIA/WIA/MIA per day in 1944.

Lots of video of them abandoning wounded, shooting themselves, etc. contrasted with ukr sending in armour to bring wounded out.

I don’t know, but I’m doubtful we are counting lightly wounded at all. Given the poor medical help, I’m at 400k dead, 300k serious wounds.

U.K. lost 800k in ww2….fighting in Europe, me, Far East, Atlantic etc.

Even if putin claims a win, putin has altered Russia for the next 100 years, and probably caused mass migration, just as europe has seen.

 

[HorniePonie]

You know that a 12.7mm machine gun has limited firepower to fight armoured vehicles, while its ability to fight entrenched infantry is even worse.

Yeah, not stellar. 28mm penetration from 250m for NSV.

 

[Musashi]

its clear Joe just kept Ukraine alive. Including influencing UK etc not allowing attacks on Russian territory etc.

Exactly, as neither Trump nor Biden is interested in RuZZia helping the #ChinaVirusDevelopers if some sh1t started in Taiwan.
We are not in the 1940s anymore and the U.S.A. is not the biggest global producer. Don't forget about it. Just RuZZia produced far more artillery shells than all the NATO countries combined.

Ukr taking Kursk is clearly a negotiating point, and brilliantly done as well.

There's no Polish general who said it's a great idea. Just the start was brilliant. Tieing up the best brigades to take some foreign territory at the expense of your own territory that you lose at an accelerated pace due to using inexperienced troops to defend it, is a strategic failure.

Ukraine is placated with an EU 'accession plan' (No one mutter Turkey)

Old Vik will veto it. Possibly Robo as well.

Kinda hoping Putin says get lost, and Trump orders 500 abrams to be handed over from Europe stocks, a few trains running should make Putin re-think?

As I've already stated numerous times, the biggest Ukraine's problem is not the equipment but the lack of valuable recruits.
The U.S.A. donated 31 M1A1s to Ukraine and over 20 have already been lost. At some point, the Americans ordered the Ukrainians to stop using these tanks in combat and preserve them.
You could see how the Ukrainians were using modern Western equipment during the "offensive" in Zaporozhiya in 2023. They did not know how to use it and abandoned many slightly damaged vehicles.

What very few of you know was asked by Ukrainian veterans:
- why did Zelensky cut the budget on the military after he came to power and decided to modernise Ukraine's roads?
- why did he decide to remove mines from the border with Crimea before the RuZZian invasion and ordered to abandon some fortifications?
- why did not he announce a mass mobilisation in 2022?

 

[Fluff]

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[Musashi]

Yeah, not stellar. 28mm penetration from 250m for NSV.

It's not my point. Most RuZZian IFVs and APCs are equipped with a 30mm autocannon.

 

[Chazman]

its clear Joe just kept Ukraine alive. Including influencing UK etc not allowing attacks on Russian territory etc.

How well Ukr would have done, had this been allowed, we dont know.

Trump claims he has a plan, from the points everyone makes, its unlikely to make everyone happy. Ukr taking Kursk is clearly a negotiating point, and brilliantly done as well.

I'm assuming Trumps 'offer' to Putin, is take my offer, Or I arm Ukraine to the hilt. Russia cant hold against 30 storm shadow per night or similar. Moscow would be without district heating water within 2 weeks, in winter....

Russia cant accept Ukraine in NATO, can it accept 50,000 NATO troops on its border with Ukraine? Could he save face with 50'000 Iranian troops opposite NATO?

Ukraine is placated with an EU 'accession plan' (No one mutter Turkey)

Kinda hoping Putin says get lost, and Trump orders 500 abrams to be handed over from Europe stocks, a few trains running should make Putin re-think?

Who knows....

I don't know what Trump might propose. It's been reported by Axios that he gave Putin a warning. https://www.axios.com/2024/11/10/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-war-call

Me personally, I think a face saving measure for Russia would be a commitment that Ukraine doesn't join NATO.

 

[Mike1976]

I think we agree. The only advantage of Belarus not being Russia, is that Russia would be visible moving divisions into Belarus. So Poland would get a bit of warning.

We saw them clearly gearing up to invade Ukraine. Everyone else laughed at the American intelligence, those buffoons were warmongering again.

Not saying the reaction should have been the same as an invasion of for example Poland, but not wanting to believe your own ally's intelligence because it doesn't align with the ideological ideal you've sold yourself runs deep, even still today.

Most likely it wouldn't be believed and even if it were, little action would be taken beforehand because that would be seen as escalatory by our weak leadership.

 

[Mike1976]

Me personally, I think a face saving measure for Russia would be a commitment that Ukraine doesn't join NATO.

That's the problem, Putin would never believe that as he doesn't adhere to a treaty if it doesn't suit his needs either and he expects his opponents to act the same.

And even if he did, it would only infer to him that he can wait, rebuild and then attack a poorly manned Ukraine again.

He's only interested in a Ukrainian unconditional surrender, winning.

 

[HorniePonie]

It's not my point. Most RuZZian IFVs and APCs are equipped with a 30mm autocannon.

I know and my idea was that I wouldn't feel comfortable shooting the front of an IFV with it, so I don't think we disagree.

 

[Mike1976]

Exactly, as neither Trump nor Biden is interested in RuZZia helping the #ChinaVirusDevelopers if some sh1t started in Taiwan.
We are not in the 1940s anymore and the U.S.A. is not the biggest global producer. Don't forget about it. Just RuZZia produced far more artillery shells than all the NATO countries combined.

That is a limitation by choice, not an impossibility. We could easily build automated factories that pump out shells in the millions and with far greater QC than any of China, Russia, Iran or Best Korea. We simply choose to spend our money on other things because armaments factories are a filthy thing for investors and most European politicians.

 

[HorniePonie]

That's the problem, Putin would never believe that as he doesn't adhere to a treaty if it doesn't suit his needs either and he expects his opponents to act the same.

And even if he did, it would only infer to him that he can wait, rebuild and then attack a poorly manned Ukraine again.

He's only interested in a Ukrainian unconditional surrender, winning.

I too believe that he at least wants a deal that leaves that path an option for him in the future even if it wouldn't happen in the immediate near future.

 

[Mike1976]

I can only repeat myself, go over to Mediazona, which is a dissident Russian journalist investigative website. They found a methodology to estimate Russia's losses based on inheritances bequeathed by military-aged males (an information publicly available in Russia). And they were able to verify it. They said that 16,000 Wagner mercenaries had died in the Battle of Bakhmut. Then a document was leaked containing the names of 17,000 dead Wagnerites who died at Bakhmut.

According to them, Russia now loses 250 men killed every single day of the conflict, and a further 1,000 are wounded. Every single day. Granted, statistically speaking most of them will be lightly wounded and return to duty (for reference sake, German doctrine assumes that 80% of all WIA return to duty within 5 days). But that would still mean that their forces loses around 500 men for good on a daily basis.

Lots of video of them abandoning wounded, shooting themselves, etc. contrasted with ukr sending in armour to bring wounded out.

I don’t know, but I’m doubtful we are counting lightly wounded at all. Given the poor medical help, I’m at 400k dead, 300k serious wounds.

The russian medical system is rudimentary at best with very little signs of first aid being rendered, the small amount of supplies being ancient and CASEVAC being a rarity mainly reserved for senior officers (according to russian POWs). The German doctrine isn't very useful here because the German standards are incomparable with the russian "standards".

I expect 95% of critically injured and 80% of severely injured to die with the survivors better off dead and 40% of medium cases and 20% of lightly wounded people to die or become invalid.

 

[Chazman]

That's the problem, Putin would never believe that as he doesn't adhere to a treaty if it doesn't suit his needs either and he expects his opponents to act the same.

And even if he did, it would only infer to him that he can wait, rebuild and then attack a poorly manned Ukraine again.

He's only interested in a Ukrainian unconditional surrender, winning.

Although Putin talks tough, I have to believe that he will eventually seek an off ramp. So far the elites in St Petersburg and Moscow have been spared from sending their sons to the front. The war is essentially a stalemate, but Russia is running out of people, unless they do a full mobilization - beyond what they've already done.. Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel for bodies and have even resorted to using Norks. When they are gone, who then?

Trump will re-open the American energy spigot, suppressing Russian oil profits, probably drastically . There are so many ways to put pressure on Russia. It's just that we've had 4 years of completely incompetent, testicle-free, foreign policy management. I'm pretty confident that the new sheriff in town will play a different game.

 

[Mark Sman]

Trump will re-open the American energy spigot, suppressing Russian oil profits, probably drastically .

That right there is the only part I fell 99% confidence will happen. But it is a two to four year timeline for full effect.

Short term will still matter, especially in contract price. Even in the dark fleet.

If you combine some of the things that Sal at Whats Up With Shipping proposes along with what will almost certainly happen in LNG production it could be radical change.

I really wouldn't place any other solid bets on what Trump is going to do outside energy policy.

I can't see crashing Ukraine into defeat fitting with his self image.

 

[Fluff]

Although Putin talks tough, I have to believe that he will eventually seek an off ramp. So far the elites in St Petersburg and Moscow have been spared from sending their sons to the front. The war is essentially a stalemate, but Russia is running out of people, unless they do a full mobilization - beyond what they've already done.. Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel for bodies and have even resorted to using Norks. When they are gone, who then?

Trump will re-open the American energy spigot, suppressing Russian oil profits, probably drastically . There are so many ways to put pressure on Russia. It's just that we've had 4 years of completely incompetent, testicle-free, foreign policy management. I'm pretty confident that the new sheriff in town will play a different game.

I’d add, putin is too old, to get another bite at Ukraine. It will take 10 years, at least, to get their tanks and apc numbers back up. Bodies can be quicker. I don’t really think Russia can afford it, even if europe started buying gas again.

As the Irish would say, when asked for directions, I wouldn’t start from here…..

 

[primer]

10 Oct 24
Kyiv Independant

Russia has captured 1146 square kilometers (442 square miles) in Ukraine since Aug. 6, about a quarter more than in the first seven months...

Mediazona probate registry estimate 120k Z dead.

24 dead per sqkm.

The slow defensive fighting, craters and destruction that looks light?