- Joined
- Apr 25, 2019
- Messages
- 3,882
- Points
- 234
On Ukraine's Forces:
The Royal United Services Institute has analysed the failed Ukrainian offensive from 2023. According to their expertise, the operation plan was sound and promising, but Ukraine failed to implement it properly. They divided their forces and reacted too slowly, allowing the Russians to consolidate their defence. RUSI firmly puts a share of the blame at the feet of Western governments, too. They should have increased their defence production output in 2022 when Russia took similar steps. In addition, their hesitation to donate sufficient amounts of Western-made equipment led to a situation where too little arrived on the frontlines in time for the closing window of opportunity to be exploited. According to RUSI, Ukraine is not in a position to launch a large-scale counter-offensive "in the foreseeable future". From the Ukrainian point of view, the aim must now be to inflict maximum damage on the Russian armed forces and weaken the Russian economy. (Source)
On Russia's Forces:
Russian mil-blogger 'Vault8' described horrendous losses in his newest post on Telegram. According to him, his regiment's every offensive action leads to losses amounting to ¼ killed in action and ¼ severely wounded in action. At the end of the day, he said, only 50% of the regiment remains to learn and become more experienced. (Source)
On Russia's domestic situation:
The wife of Igor Girkin a.k.a. Strelkov—the FSB officer who in 2014 was in charge of establishing the "People's Republics" of Luhansk and Donetsk, and is now imprisoned as a government critic—, has done an interview with one of Girkin's friends. The man, whose nom-de-guerre is 'Prapor', told her that Russia has neither the means nor the strength to subdue Ukraine. He described the situation on the frontline as "apocalypse". His opinion on the military leadership and Putin in particular is hardly any better, denouncing both as "wholly incompetent".
'Prapor' used the interview to strongly discourage his compatriots from volunteering, adding that he would not let his own sons go to Ukraine. He thinks the frontline volunteers "will soon be needed much more urgently at home". According to him, the army fears supply problems for the civilian population if the war goes on for much longer. 'Prapor' also mentioned that the volunteer brigade which Girkin formed in 2014 from Russians and Russo-Ukrainians was utterly destroyed during the Battle for Mariupol. (Source)
[Maybe it's the loss of his men that converted Girkin from Putin-fanboy to dissident.]
On Russia's domestic situation, part deux:
More and more Russian households in the Belgorod region have been observed flying Ukrainian colours above their homes. Russian bloggers claim that the Ukrainians are inciting people to do this with the promise that their homes would not be attacked. (Source)
On Ukraine's domestic situation:
A representative survey has found that 44% of Ukrainians are in favour of entering into peace negotiations with Russia, with 35% opposed and 21% unsure. Remarkably, approval is highest in the relatively peaceful south of the country (60%), while in the Russian-dominated east, where the fiercest fighting rages, only 33% are in favour of peace negotiations. Despite this relative majority in favour of negotiations, a large majority think that Ukraine should not bow to Russia's terms. 83% oppose territorial concessions, and 61% say that Ukraine should not make any concessions at all. 66% of the population think that military victory over Russia is still possible. (Source)
On the geostrategic picture:
Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited the US presidential candidate Donald Trump at this residence and tried to convince him of the need to continue supporting Ukraine. In his column for the ‘Daily Mail’, Johnson paints a positive picture of Trump's ideas on how to deal with the conflict and says he believes that Trump will succeed.
According to Johnson, Trump is planning to arm Ukraine and authorise it to launch unrestricted attacks in the Russian hinterland. This would force Putin to return the negotiating table. Per Trump's ideas, Kiev would then cede Crimea to Russia and make a constitutional amendment guaranteeing Russian speakers more protection and special rights.
Johnson goes on to explain that Trump would not require more concessions from Ukraine, particularly no further territorial concessions or a renunciation of their bid to join NATO and the EU. He does, however, plan to have tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops stationed in Western Europe, which would allow America to remove its military contingent from the continent. (Source)
[Well, that's a somewhat positive signal. Unfortunately, Johnson is a notorious liar, and Trump would have to eat his previous announcements if what Johnson describes is actually his plan. And even if Russia does agree to negotiate, which is not a given, I do not see how Trump could possibly get Ukraine and the European half of NATO to accept his ideas. Most Ukrainians do not want to give up Crimea. And why would Ukraine want to station up to 70,000 of their troops beyond their borders? And who would agree to host them?]
By the way, the forum is running quite slowly for me. Even if I'm just hitting a reaction button, it takes like 30 seconds before a smiley appears. It's really annoying. Anyone else having the same issue?
The Royal United Services Institute has analysed the failed Ukrainian offensive from 2023. According to their expertise, the operation plan was sound and promising, but Ukraine failed to implement it properly. They divided their forces and reacted too slowly, allowing the Russians to consolidate their defence. RUSI firmly puts a share of the blame at the feet of Western governments, too. They should have increased their defence production output in 2022 when Russia took similar steps. In addition, their hesitation to donate sufficient amounts of Western-made equipment led to a situation where too little arrived on the frontlines in time for the closing window of opportunity to be exploited. According to RUSI, Ukraine is not in a position to launch a large-scale counter-offensive "in the foreseeable future". From the Ukrainian point of view, the aim must now be to inflict maximum damage on the Russian armed forces and weaken the Russian economy. (Source)
On Russia's Forces:
Russian mil-blogger 'Vault8' described horrendous losses in his newest post on Telegram. According to him, his regiment's every offensive action leads to losses amounting to ¼ killed in action and ¼ severely wounded in action. At the end of the day, he said, only 50% of the regiment remains to learn and become more experienced. (Source)
On Russia's domestic situation:
The wife of Igor Girkin a.k.a. Strelkov—the FSB officer who in 2014 was in charge of establishing the "People's Republics" of Luhansk and Donetsk, and is now imprisoned as a government critic—, has done an interview with one of Girkin's friends. The man, whose nom-de-guerre is 'Prapor', told her that Russia has neither the means nor the strength to subdue Ukraine. He described the situation on the frontline as "apocalypse". His opinion on the military leadership and Putin in particular is hardly any better, denouncing both as "wholly incompetent".
'Prapor' used the interview to strongly discourage his compatriots from volunteering, adding that he would not let his own sons go to Ukraine. He thinks the frontline volunteers "will soon be needed much more urgently at home". According to him, the army fears supply problems for the civilian population if the war goes on for much longer. 'Prapor' also mentioned that the volunteer brigade which Girkin formed in 2014 from Russians and Russo-Ukrainians was utterly destroyed during the Battle for Mariupol. (Source)
[Maybe it's the loss of his men that converted Girkin from Putin-fanboy to dissident.]
On Russia's domestic situation, part deux:
More and more Russian households in the Belgorod region have been observed flying Ukrainian colours above their homes. Russian bloggers claim that the Ukrainians are inciting people to do this with the promise that their homes would not be attacked. (Source)
On Ukraine's domestic situation:
A representative survey has found that 44% of Ukrainians are in favour of entering into peace negotiations with Russia, with 35% opposed and 21% unsure. Remarkably, approval is highest in the relatively peaceful south of the country (60%), while in the Russian-dominated east, where the fiercest fighting rages, only 33% are in favour of peace negotiations. Despite this relative majority in favour of negotiations, a large majority think that Ukraine should not bow to Russia's terms. 83% oppose territorial concessions, and 61% say that Ukraine should not make any concessions at all. 66% of the population think that military victory over Russia is still possible. (Source)
On the geostrategic picture:
Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited the US presidential candidate Donald Trump at this residence and tried to convince him of the need to continue supporting Ukraine. In his column for the ‘Daily Mail’, Johnson paints a positive picture of Trump's ideas on how to deal with the conflict and says he believes that Trump will succeed.
According to Johnson, Trump is planning to arm Ukraine and authorise it to launch unrestricted attacks in the Russian hinterland. This would force Putin to return the negotiating table. Per Trump's ideas, Kiev would then cede Crimea to Russia and make a constitutional amendment guaranteeing Russian speakers more protection and special rights.
Johnson goes on to explain that Trump would not require more concessions from Ukraine, particularly no further territorial concessions or a renunciation of their bid to join NATO and the EU. He does, however, plan to have tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops stationed in Western Europe, which would allow America to remove its military contingent from the continent. (Source)
[Well, that's a somewhat positive signal. Unfortunately, Johnson is a notorious liar, and Trump would have to eat his previous announcements if what Johnson describes is actually his plan. And even if Russia does agree to negotiate, which is not a given, I do not see how Trump could possibly get Ukraine and the European half of NATO to accept his ideas. Most Ukrainians do not want to give up Crimea. And why would Ukraine want to station up to 70,000 of their troops beyond their borders? And who would agree to host them?]
By the way, the forum is running quite slowly for me. Even if I'm just hitting a reaction button, it takes like 30 seconds before a smiley appears. It's really annoying. Anyone else having the same issue?
