Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[HorniePonie]

Mediazona arrived at the conclusion that Russia is capable of producing 1,500 main battle tanks per annum, with 30-50 from new parts and 1,470-1,450 from refurbished or cannibalised vehicles. Many of them will be garbage, but their quality might not be as big of an issue as we may think. I mean, the Russians obviously don't give a damn about crew survivability, and tactics-wise they're mostly used as assault guns anyway. Tank-on-tank engagements remain extremely rare. A T-55 isn't automatically a lesser threat to an Ukrainian trench compared to a T-90 …

Do they have 1500 new crews per annum?

 

[muck]

Do they have 1500 new crews per annum?

Shouldn't be an issue, by their standards. The Ukrainians have captured POWs who said they received a fortnight of training.

 

[HorniePonie]

Shouldn't be an issue, by their standards. The Ukrainians have captured POWs who said they received a fortnight of training.

True. I guess it's useless to train them much else than cranking the engine and putting it in gear with the current attrition rate and lack of tank to tank action.

 

[muck]

On Ukraine's domestic political situation:

Ultra-nationalist politician Iryna Farion (formerly a member of the Verkhovna Rada for Svoboda) was murdered in Lviv last night. (Source) Farion was a highly controversial figure in Ukraine, who had made a name for herself with verbal abuse towards Russo-Ukrainians. In 2018, she was investigated for saying that Russian speakers should be "punched in the face". Just recently, she questioned the loyalty of Russian-speaking Ukrainian soldiers, dismissing them as being "not really Ukrainian" and "pets of Moscow". The Ukrainian government suggests that Russia could be involved in her death, but the investigations are hampered by war-related power cuts.

–

This time, I actually doubt that Russia was involved. Farion was far more useful to Moscow's propaganda alive than dead. She was one of the few remaining figureheads of the anti-Russian ultra-nationalists, whose influence was never as strong as claimed by Russia, and who have seen a steep decline in popularity since 2014. For example, Svoboda won 10.45% of the vote in 2012, but fell short of the 5% caucus recognition clause in 2014. And in 2019, a joint caucus list of the entire ultra-nationalistic camp achieved a vote of merely 2.4%.

 

[profyler]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/donald-trump-zelensky-phone-call-2024/index.html

Would not trust Trump a second regarding Ukraine. I don´t know what Zelensky can do but I see a US halt on weapons delivery the next day when Trump is the chair. I don't want to get too deep into it, but Trump has already given his opinion on Ukraine several times... Trying to put more pressure on the European allies is the only thing left he could do, although in my opinion it won't result in anything significant either... Very dificult time for Ukraine.

 

[PEMM]

@profyler Are we in Europe ready to pick up that weight in case the US bails? I think not, despite ample time to get the industry up to speed.

 

[profyler]

@profyler Are we in Europe ready to pick up that weight in case the US bails? I think not, despite ample time to get the industry up to speed.

I agree with you. Europe was a disappointment when it came to supporting Ukraine.

 

[PEMM]

I agree with you. Europe was a disappointment when it came to supporting Ukraine.

One reason is that in many ways we were like the stereotype of decadent west - we have been accruing debt for services we couldn't afford. So when an actual crisis came, we were already neck deep in debt. And then we had the war.

Still I would expect some kind of solidarity tax that would pay for the Ukrainian defence. And not through EU but individually, as it's so difficult to get anything through there with Hungary and co.

 

[profyler]

One reason is that in many ways we were like the stereotype of decadent west - we have been accruing debt for services we couldn't afford. So when an actual crisis came, we were already neck deep in debt. And then we had the war.

Still I would expect some kind of solidarity tax that would pay for the Ukrainian defence. And not through EU but individually, as it's so difficult to get anything through there with Hungary and co.

I would totally pay a little bit more tax for exclusively sending more weapons to ukies, but we are minority maybe not even 2% that would say ok to this.

 

[Mark Sman]

I would totally pay a little bit more tax for exclusively sending more weapons to ukies, but we are minority maybe not even 2% that would say ok to this.

If it was 2% of the entire EU individual tax base, that is actually quite a lot of money.

 

[profyler]

If it was 2% of the entire EU individual tax base, that is actually quite a lot of money.

Yup. But like you said, there is no effort from europe. This topic is still a "complicated " thing for Europeans

 

[Fluff]

Mediazona arrived at the conclusion that Russia is capable of producing 1,500 main battle tanks per annum, with 30-50 from new parts and 1,470-1,450 from refurbished or cannibalised vehicles. Many of them will be garbage, but their quality might not be as big of an issue as we may think. I mean, the Russians obviously don't give a damn about crew survivability, and tactics-wise they're mostly used as assault guns anyway. Tank-on-tank engagements remain extremely rare. A T-55 isn't automatically a lesser threat to an Ukrainian trench compared to a T-90 …

Are these 1500 tanks in the room with us now?

If they could, they would have. 5 tanks a day, 4 week cycle, means 150 tanks in work, at any one time. Didn’t someone spot the same tank in the production line, a year apart? Imagine how many wheel bearings you need. U.K. used museum tanks, to put the t72 track back into production, for Ukraine. What kills do ukr make? This would be better gauge of Russian production.

Russians are converting them to apc, to try and drop infantry, with very mixed success, as they have to survive fpv drones, missiles, and you just marked your infantry, for arty, by driving a huge tank into the position.

 

[muck]

On the situation in Russia:

The Kremlin has, for the first time, confirmed that returning veterans poorly adapt to civilian life and that many commit violent crimes. It is feared that the "increase in crime committed by them could, in the future, cause dissatisfaction, fear, or aggression towards [them]". (Source)

On the situation in occupied Ukraine:

Ukrainian partizans have killed 12 Russian soldiers in occupied Mariupol by supplying them with poisoned watermelons. (Source)

Shows how active the resistance has become. It should be noted that this action constituted a war crime, though (perfidy).

 

[OldGuy]

Any aid would be passed by the congress and the senate. President might have some say but he does not hold the keys to the money vault. I've already seen first hand how trusting America as an ally really is not batting 500 in my long life. No one in our government knows what to hell they are doing much less what is right or wrong. Russia is a heartbeat away from total collapse so I would be a bit slow in denying enough for Ukraine to protect themselves as long as needed. More thought should be set aside for forcing Russia to pay for all the rebuilding when it does come to an end.

 

[TheKiwi]

Some analysis on Russian MTLB numbers in stock:

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TLDR, almost none left in storage, but probably a great many still in the field. But its not produced anymore so numbers are likely to fall and not be replaced.

 

[muck]

@OldGuy

It's perplexing to me Ukraine only ever appears in American political debate as an issue that's arisen either because America's European allies feel threatened or because America needlessly showed up in Russia's backyard (depending on which side of the aisle you're talking to).

There are other rarely-addressed angles, though.

1. One of the reasons why the Russian government has begun this war is to "drive the Anglo-Americans back into the sea" and create an "Eurasia under Russian leadership from Lisbon to Vladivostok". Vladimir Putin has suggested as much, and Dmitri Medvedew has literally said those words. Yes, this is a land-grab, but it's also a challenge. I don't see how America could possibly retain its quasi-hegemonial influence in the world if it doesn't accept that challenge and beats the challenger accordingly.

Many have suggested the Afghanistan withdrawal has hurt America's image as a superpower; but if that's true, the consequences of letting Ukraine fall would be devastating to America's ability to get wat it wants in the world. The Taleban can't threaten America; leaving Afghanistan was like an unnerved eagle fleeing a swarm of gnats. Everyone saw the eagle was defeated by itself, not by the gnats. But now, the eagle is being challenged by a big fat bear. It has to prove it can't get defeated by the bear.

2. The Budapest Memorandum. Back in 1994, America virtually forced Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons, in exchange becoming a guarantor of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty. It's unlikely Russia would've attacked a nuclear-armed Ukraine. Some would suggest America has a contractual and moral obligation to aid Ukraine. At any rate, America would certainly be perceived as weak if it can't do (or doesn't want to do) what it'd solemly pledged that it would. Adversaries like China, Iran and North Korea would quickly move in to exploit that weakness.

 

[Musashi]

For those who missed it, Ukraine sh1tlisted ol' Vik and Robo:

Ukrainian sanctions cut off crude oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia - Telewizja Polska SA

Ukrainian sanctions cut off crude oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia Ukraine announced in June it would tighten its sanctions against Moscow by preventing the use of Ukrainian infrastructure by Russia’s second biggest oil exporter, Lukoil.

www.tvp.pl

 

[OldGuy]

On the situation in Russia:

The Kremlin has, for the first time, confirmed that returning veterans poorly adapt to civilian life and that many commit violent crimes. It is feared that the "increase in crime committed by them could, in the future, cause dissatisfaction, fear, or aggression towards [them]". (Source)

On the situation in occupied Ukraine:

Ukrainian partizans have killed 12 Russian soldiers in occupied Mariupol by supplying them with poisoned watermelons. (Source)

Shows how active the resistance has become. It should be noted that this action constituted a war crime, though (perfidy).

That happens when you have a draft and or empty the prisons to do the fighting.

 

[Old Dog 90-94]

Looks like they are not going to invade, but they have a few house rendering/painting jobs that need a bit of scaffolding

This aged well.

 

[Mike1976]

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