Here comes the analysis of someone sitting in in front of his computer and just letting his open ideas through, although they are that of a layman:
My first remark would be the front is now extremely fortified, everywhere, except for Russia proper but as symbolic as it can be, it can be only used as barter and even that is unsure. We saw that during the recovery of the Kharkiv oblast, the Russians were able to fortify Svatove and Kreminna very quickly, and even gaining back a little ground.
Attacking the front in Zaporozhia in direction of the South is directing the efforts towards the Azov sea. I can understand that it is a highly prized asset. Ukraine risks being landlocked, because without Crimea and the Azov shores, the Odessa port and the smaller one next to it are unsafe and too far away from the industrial heart of the country. My quick assessment is that the Luhansk oblast has little value, the southern districts are much more important. Getting back its access to the sea seems critical. For the Russians, without the landbridge, holding Crimea is going to be extremely compicated.
I am not knowledgeable on available tech on tanks or armored vehicles, but what I read is that the breakthrough is extremely complex: without moving in a column, you can hit a mine and then that´s it unless you can retrieve the vehicle (that shields its crew better than the Soviet crap). We knew Ukraine lacks some elements such as the capacity to launch a huge artillery barrage, and anti aircraft defenses. It also lacks planes...and I do wonder what purpose the Migs that the Poles and the Slovaks transferred will get. Perhaps they are not good for anything other than dogfights, and not a match for helicopters that can travel at low speeds. But the fact is we saw no aircraft action from the Ukrainians.
The use of Bradleys and Leos does hint that this is the major offensive. But it might also be a feint to make the Russians think that.
So I am rather on a waiting mode here. Here and there there is some chatter about the Ukrainians slowly gaining ground around Bakhmut, and some operations in the South did bear fruit: I heard that the Ukrainians gained ten square kilometers around the village of Kamianske by the river between Zaporozhia and Energodar where the power plant is.
I do believe that some pro Ukrainian accounts are fake and propagating "dissapointment", "worries" in order to break the morale of allies. That the Ukrainians will do everything perfectly? No I don´t think so, mistakes are made and learned from: even the Russians do that. Let´s see how this all unfolds in the next week.
