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rdogan vetoes Finnish and Swedish membership of NATO, according to Monday's news. There are two possible outcomes to this, and I will say it up front: in both cases there will be a Western guarantee for the Finns and Swedes. In one of them, we will come out pretty badly.
The obvious possibility here is that we are talking about a Middle East bazaar (although we can safely put Szijjártó's bid yesterday on the 'price' of the oil embargo in this category): if I have a position, and the veto is it, I will try to monetise it. I'm very tough, "don't come begging", but I'll whisper under my breath to the Westerners that "if I get so and so, I'll vote for it".
Of course, that may not be the case, or the price may be too high. There is an obvious western answer to that, the British have already started. Let's call it the "Nordic Defence Council" on a working year. The countries of the Nordic region, along with the Baltics and Poland, the US, Canada, Britain, the Germans, the French, the Spanish, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Spanish. Without the Turks and, to avoid an Aegean conflict, without the Greeks.
On reflection, it would be a stronger and less troublesome NATO. The Romanians would probably be admitted if they applied. I'm not so sure about the attitude towards Hungarians, and I'm not so sure about our application.
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