Mil News Current Iran/Iraq/US Tensions and Actions Unfolding

[BeNder]

Iran has embarked on a path in which sabotage and assassinations are part of the game.

All the while, Iran is continuing to strengthen its strategic position and is making advancements in the nuclear- and military sphere.

I appreciate your banter, but Israel alone can turn you into glass. Your underestimation of your enemies will do you in. Keep posting pix of the scud mods though, they are fun to watch.

 

[Jake84]

@Mordoror

Your input even a quick one could be appreciated since I see you’re around at the moment so to be in the middle of the melee and offer a different perpective ie; « Neither Iran or Israël have the ability to blow each other overnight.

 

[Mardonius]

I appreciate your banter, but Israel alone can turn you into glass. Your underestimation of your enemies will do you in. Keep posting pix of the scud mods though, they are fun to watch.

Israel doesn't have the capabilities to deal with Iran alone. These are not my words only, but the perspective of the upper echelon of the IDF.

They aren't scud mods, honey. Seems like you are late to the party, still stuck in the past. Iran is a completely different beast now.

 

[Fluff]

Israel doesn't have the capabilities to deal with Iran alone. These are not my words only, but the perspective of the upper echelon of the IDF.

They aren't scud mods, honey. Seems like you are late to the party, still stuck in the past. Iran is a completely different beast now.

 

[Jake84]

View attachment 271868

I get that too, but seriously; who’s going to ally hand in hand with the US and Israel to nuke Iran and turn the whole country into glass and have ten of millions Iranians dead.

Think about the consequences on the world stage.

Iran while somewhat isolated outside of its proxies in the region isn’t North Korea, of which even the Chicoms lately have taken distance from. They are not entirely alone.

Russians won’t die for Iran, but these nukes talk seem a bit too much, and aren’t going to happen anyway.

 

[Fluff]

Israel doesn't have the capabilities to deal with Iran alone. These are not my words only, but the perspective of the upper echelon of the IDF.

They aren't scud mods, honey. Seems like you are late to the party, still stuck in the past. Iran is a completely different beast now.

I think your excluding the use of nuclear weapons. Why, when Iran publicly calls for the destruction of Israel, do you make such an assumption? For sure Israel has nukes, as its last line of defense, and it can deliver them, and Iran cannot stop that, not 1%.

Also not sure what you mean by 'deal with'? Israel I dont think, has made a threat to destroy or invade Iran? They have plenty of desert, mostly taken from other idiots that thought they could destroy israel. Israel has said it wont allow Iran to get nuclear weapons.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

View attachment 271864
View attachment 271865


View attachment 271866

View attachment 271867

Watch out, Iran managed to "develop" the Shahed 161.

Aka: the US drone that went down a few years ago.

Probably as efficient as their Qaher-313.

 

[Fluff]

I get that too, but seriously; who’s going to ally hand in hand with the US and Israel to nuke Iran and turn the whole country into glass and have ten of millions Iranians dead.

Think about the consequences on the world stage.

Iran while somewhat isolated outside of its proxies in the region isn’t North Korea, of which even the Chicoms lately have taken distance from. They are not entirely alone.

Russians won’t die for Iran, but these nukes talk seem a bit too much, and aren’t going to happen anyway.

I'm not expecting any Nukes to fly, except if Iran does some very silly things to Israel, or USA. Just trying to show that Israel has them, and countries shouldn't go around threatening each other, especially when only one has a nuke, and its not the one that is doing the threatening.

 

[Jake84]

I'm not expecting any Nukes to fly, except if Iran does some very silly things to Israel, or USA. Just trying to show that Israel has them, and countries shouldn't go around threatening each other, especially when only one has a nuke, and its not the one that is doing the threatening.

Right-o but still, Saddam did send some Scud missile back in the days of the Operation Desert Storm toward Israel and the « Western coalition » to call it that rightly did strike back, except with leaving Saddam in power until 2003.

It’s well understood that Iran doesn’t have the military strength of the US and Israel, like when some fantasizes about NK kicking American butts in the Korean Peninsula.

I’d expect it to be difficult conflicts, but in all likelihood nukes aren’t tossed around like scuds or Tomahawks.

 

[Fluff]

Right-o but still, Saddam did send some Scud missile back in the days of the Operation Desert Storm toward Israel and the « Western coalition » to call it that rightly did strike back, except with leaving Saddam in power until 2003.

It’s well understood that Iran doesn’t have the military strength of the US and Israel, like when some fantasizes about NK kicking American butts in the Korean Peninsula.

I’d expect it to be difficult conflicts, but in all likelihood nukes aren’t tossed around like scuds or Tomahawks.

Trust me, I'm personally very aware of Scud missiles......we stopped counting at 50.

They achieved very nearly f**k all, and what was achieved was purely random/accidental.

I dont doubt that Iran has improved range and guidance, and warhead, but really without a nuke they are still very limited in military impact. Add in the defense system USA and especially Israel has, and its not going to be the fun game some posters are suggesting.

 

[BCNTM]

Top-notch analysis right here, folks.

IDF Major-General Yair Golan on why Israel can't cope with Iran alone. Watch from 52:30:

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You hardly know what you're talking about.

We will see when push comes to shove

 

[Fluff]

Watch out, Iran managed to "develop" the Shahed 161.

Aka: the US drone that went down a few years ago.

Probably as efficient as their Qaher-313.

yeah we have some of those:

 

[BCNTM]

yeah we have some of those:View attachment 271874

has he knocked off for the day - part-timers ? ?

 

[Mordoror]

@Mordoror

Your input even a quick one could be appreciated since I see you’re around at the moment so to be in the middle of the melee and offer a different perpective ie; « Neither Iran or Israël have the ability to blow each other overnight.

@Jake

Sorry, i didnt followed the thread so dont know what is really discussed.
About the balance of power

Well Israel could blow main iranian cities and strategical sites overnight but would have to go nuclear for that so a big no no. Furthermore it is not even sure that surface bursts would be enough to deal with hardened underground facilities like Fordo/Natanz.

What both can do is lobb each other conventional ordnance with limited effect
Israel alone doesnt have the means for a sustained long range air campaign except if somebody accepts its planes closer on its soil (KSA?, Irak?, politicaly dangerous, dont see it done). So it can operate F15 long range flight but is limited by refueling and rearming capacities. It can hit hard, but not really threaten the regime as a whole.

Iran has also long range means MRBMs like Sahab3 but limited in numbers (40 to 50 launchers IIRC) and subject to interception by Iron Dome. However, it can push its Hezbollah proxie to act which means hundred of short range systems activated, mostly against northern israeli settlements. A few of them can reach deeper but they are not the majority.

In other words, tacticaly each other can do harm to the oposite side but has no means to defeat the other country armed forces.

The result of a war between both would then depend of political factors, something that is not really predictable (failure to stop a sustained operation on one side or the other for example can eventualy topple a gov ... or trigger a nationalist reaction hardening the conflict. Hard to tell there)

 

[Fluff]

has he knocked off for the day - part-timers ? ?

He's driving his hillman Hunter home, dodging Israeli MG pickups, and going to put a few hours in polishing his rockets....

 

[BCNTM]

@Jake

Sorry, i didnt followed the thread so dont know what is really discussed.
About the balance of power

Well Israel could blow main iranian cities and strategical sites overnight but would have to go nuclear for that so a big no no. Furthermore it is not even sure that surface bursts would be enough to deal with hardened underground facilities like Fordo/Natanz.

What both can do is lobb each other conventional ordnance with limited effect
Israel alone doesnt have the means for a sustained long range air campaign except if somebody accepts its planes closer on its soil (KSA?, Irak?, politicaly dangerous, dont see it done). So it can operate F15 long range flight but is limited by refueling and rearming capacities. It can hit hard, but not really threaten the regime as a whole.

Iran has also long range means MRBMs like Sahab3 but limited in numbers (40 to 50 launchers IIRC) and subject to interception by Iron Dome. However, it can push its Hezbollah proxie to act which means hundred of short range systems activated, mostly against northern israeli settlements. A few of them can reach deeper but they are not the majority.

In other words, tacticaly each other can do harm to the oposite side but has no means to defeat the other country armed forces.

The result of a war between both would then depend of political factors, something that is not really predictable (failure to stop a sustained operation on one side or the other for example can eventualy topple a gov ... or trigger a nationalist reaction hardening the conflict. Hard to tell there)

the voice of reason

 

[Mordoror]

Remember also that any direct Isral Iran conflict will spill beyond these 2 states.

USA may be involved providing weapons, intel and refueling capacity to Israel at least
In case of direct US kinetic intervention however Iran can close the Ormuz straights. It has enough naval mine layers, AshM, and patrol boats as well as SSK to threaten the sail road there.
It can also activate al Qods cells wherever they are positioned. If it spills that way, we are good for a global economical crisis on top of the economical crisis already awaiting us because of the Covid.
Including in both belligerent countries that are not doing well economicaly.
We can all hope we dont get there.

 

[BCNTM]

Remember also that any direct Isral Iran conflict will spill beyond these 2 states.

USA may be involved providing weapons, intel and refueling capacity to Israel at least
In case of direct US kinetic intervention however Iran can close the Ormuz straights. It has enough naval mine layers, AshM, and patrol boats as well as SSK to threaten the sail road there.
It can also activate al Qods cells wherever they are positioned. If it spills that way, we are good for a global economical crisis on top of the economical crisis already awaiting us because of the Covid.
Including in both belligerent countries that are not doing well economicaly.
We can all hope we dont get there.

Two points - time to do it whilst the world is not using as much oil

Your oil goes out the same way - so massive cut in income

 

[Mordoror]

Two points - time to do it whilst the world is not using as much oil

Your oil goes out the same way - so massive cut in income

Nope for 2 reasons
Unless you defeat Iran quickly or destroy enough of its nuisance assets (and how could we, they can build FAS quicker than we can destroy them, they are basicaly a speed boat with RPG or 107 mm chinese LRM or ATGM or 23 mm bitude mounted on an inexpensive hull), Iran can threaten the sail road for months

Not counting cheap or more advanced UCAVs. But even a couple of DIY UAV strapped with a pair of Heat grenades are enough to disrupt the maritime road.
Plus markets are very sensitive about what happens in that area of the world.

Second point, in case of protracted war (and we have seen above that none of the actors can finish the others quickly, including the US that woulf have first to build up forces then engage in month long air campaign while exposed to regional ie SRBMs retaliations on their bases and possibly terror actions at home) Israel is at disadvantage. It is a reservist army. Which means it has to win quickly, otherwise, the functioning of the civil society will be disrupted and the financial cost too high.
This was always the issue with Israel defence system and well acknoweledged by their analysts

You cannot afford months long war when your civil servants, plumbers, bakers, M.Ds, and basically most jobs that make the econoly roll are blocked under a green uniform.

Basically nobody can afford to begin the shooting contest except in the theorical idea that it stays limited which is never sure.

 

[Fluff]

I dont see the west starting a war, I can see Israel making a strike on the nuclear facilitities, 'assisted' by other unknown stealth operators....

What I actually fear is Iran being over confident, and either they, or their loonytoons proxies kicking off in a way Israel or the west cannot ignore.

I can see further sanctions.