Mil News Current Iran/Iraq/US Tensions and Actions Unfolding

[BCNTM]

Nope for 2 reasons
Unless you defeat Iran quickly or destroy enough of its nuisance assets (and how could we, they can build FAS quicker than we can destroy them, they are basicaly a speed boat with RPG or 107 mm chinese LRM or ATGM or 23 mm bitude mounted on an inexpensive hull), Iran can threaten the sail road for months

Not counting cheap or more advanced UCAVs. But even a couple of DIY UAV strapped with a pair of Heat grenades are enough to disrupt the maritime road.
Plus markets are very sensitive about what happens in that area of the world.

Second point, in case of protracted war (and we have seen above that none of the actors can finish the others quickly, including the US that woulf have first to build up forces then engage in month long air campaign while exposed to regional ie SRBMs retaliations on their bases and possibly terror actions at home) Israel is at disadvantage. It is a reservist army. Which means it has to win quickly, otherwise, the functioning of the civil society will be disrupted and the financial cost too high.
This was always the issue with Israel defence system and well acknoweledged by their analysts

You cannot afford months long war when your civil servants, plumbers, bakers, M.Ds, and basically most jobs that make the econoly roll are blocked under a green uniform.

Basically nobody can afford to begin the shooting contest except in the theorical idea that it stays limited which is never sure.

Target list will include all port areas

As I said before give them a tanker - but hide charges on it in the oil storage tanks - then light it up when it's in port - make it look like an accident

 

[Mordoror]

I dont see the west starting a war, I can see Israel making a strike on the nuclear facilitities, 'assisted' by other unknown stealth operators....

What I actually fear is Iran being over confident, and either they, or their loonytoons proxies kicking off in a way Israel or the west cannot ignore.

I can see further sanctions.

That would be a scenario (ala Osirak plant 1980s)
However iranian facilities are buried and hardened
Not sure the F15I are wired nor have the capability to deliver a high load penetration ordnance other than the GBU 28 which may be short in penetration capacity. They are certainly not able to carry a GBU 57 which what was assessed as needed to neutralize Natanz facility

I admit i dont have followed weapon R&D on the bunker buster topic though

 

[BCNTM]

That would be a scenario (ala Osirak plant 1980s)
However iranian facilities are buried and hardened
Not sure the F15I are wired nor have the capability to deliver a high load penetration ordnance other than the GBU 28 which may be short in penetration capacity. They are certainly not able to carry a GBU 57 which what was assessed as needed to neutralize Natanz facility

I admit i dont have followed weapon R&D on the bunker buster topic though

B2's had all the bomb racks updated on them for about 2-3 years now - and the bombs they can now carry can damage any facility Iran has built

Failing that they just cause a lot of earthquakes

there you go - B2 can carry two of these - built specially for the job straight down the hatch
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...hest-quality-video-mother-bunker-busters.html

Come back to us when Iran has anywhere near that capability to deliver that sort of strike anywhere in the world

Plus you also need to consider what the yanks have actually been building between when they completed those B2's and now - which we have not seen on YouTube - 1st B2 flew July 1989; 31 years ago

B21 is just being built - I posted that in the other thread

 

[Mordoror]

B2's had all the bomb racks updated on them for about 2-3 years now - and the bombs they can now carry can damage any facility Iran has built

Failing that they just cause a lot of earthquakes

there you go - B2 can carry two of these - built specially for the job straight down the hatch
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...hest-quality-video-mother-bunker-busters.html

Come back to us when Iran has anywhere near that capability to deliver that sort of strike anywhere in the world

Plus you also need to consider what the yanks have actually been building between when they completed those B2's and now - which we have not seen on YouTube - 1st B2 flew July 1989; 31 years ago

B21 is just being built - I posted that in the other thread

Yes B2
Something Israel doesnt have....

 

[BCNTM]

Yes B2
Something Israel doesnt have....

Israel will just provide the diversion - seemed to hit a lot of weapon storage facilities the other night

 

[Fluff]

Israel will just provide the diversion - seemed to hit a lot of weapon storage facilities the other night

Lots of earthquakes in the ME.....

 

[Mardonius]

@Jake

Sorry, i didnt followed the thread so dont know what is really discussed.
About the balance of power

Well Israel could blow main iranian cities and strategical sites overnight but would have to go nuclear for that so a big no no. Furthermore it is not even sure that surface bursts would be enough to deal with hardened underground facilities like Fordo/Natanz.

What both can do is lobb each other conventional ordnance with limited effect
Israel alone doesnt have the means for a sustained long range air campaign except if somebody accepts its planes closer on its soil (KSA?, Irak?, politicaly dangerous, dont see it done). So it can operate F15 long range flight but is limited by refueling and rearming capacities. It can hit hard, but not really threaten the regime as a whole.

Iran has also long range means MRBMs like Sahab3 but limited in numbers (40 to 50 launchers IIRC) and subject to interception by Iron Dome. However, it can push its Hezbollah proxie to act which means hundred of short range systems activated, mostly against northern israeli settlements. A few of them can reach deeper but they are not the majority.

In other words, tacticaly each other can do harm to the oposite side but has no means to defeat the other country armed forces.

The result of a war between both would then depend of political factors, something that is not really predictable (failure to stop a sustained operation on one side or the other for example can eventualy topple a gov ... or trigger a nationalist reaction hardening the conflict. Hard to tell there)

Finally, someone with some sense and knowledge in this thread. These Anglo-Saxons over here have started to believe in their own myth of western invincibility. It isn't going to take long before they are going to realize that their global supremacy has waned; that the glory days of the West are now relics of the past.

Yet, your information about Iran's military capabilities is largely outdated as well. The prominence of Shahab-3s in Iran's missile arsenal is ancient past. Iran has developed much more capable, survivable and accurate MRBMs such as the Sejjil. Uzi Rubin for instance, Israel's leading missile expert who formerly managed the development of the Arrow anti-ballistic missile defence system, estimates that Iran alone has about precision-guided 1000 missiles that are able to reach Israel. And this likely a very conservative estimate.

Rubin said that in addition to Hezbollah’s 130,000 rockets, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza have 20,000-30,000 rockets. As for precision guided missiles, Rubin said that Iran has about 1,000 missiles that can reach Israel, and Iran’s terror proxies in Iraq have 200-300 missiles capable of reaching Israel.

The Blogs: Understanding Iran’s Missile Threat to Israel

From the blog of Bob Feferman at The Times of Israel

blogs.timesofisrael.com

Moreover, the days when Hezbollah could only hit northern Israeli settlements with short-range rockets is long gone as well. By Israel's own account, Hezbollah now fields a significant amount of precision-guides missiles that are able to hit every corner in Israel. I'll quote:

Iran and Hezbollah have sped up their precision-guided missile project over the past year after six years of failure, Israel's military said on Thursday amid tensions following a strike near Beirut that Lebanon attributed to Israel.

Hezbollah possesses dozens of precision missiles, the army said as it released a comprehensive overview of the missile project for the first time, but has until now failed in its attempts to mass produce them within Lebanon.

Iran accelerating Hezbollah's precision missile program after years of failure, Israel says

***

www.haaretz.com

The threat has apparently become so grave for Israel that the Chief of Staff of the IDF is increasingly preparing Israeli society and military for what is about to come.

In a chilling speech given just over a year ago, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. General Aviv Kochavi warned Israeli civilians, “It must be known and recognized that in the next war — whether in the north or against Hamas — heavy fire will be directed against our home front. I’m looking people in the eye, and saying, there will be heavy fire. We have to recognize this and we have to prepare for this… We have to prepare for this militarily; the civil hierarchies have to prepare for this; and we have to prepare for this mentally.”

The “heavy fire” that Kochavi referred to is the combined threat of rockets and precision guided missiles from Iran and its terror proxies across the region. Since 2013, while the international community has been focusing on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran has been quietly but relentlessly working to build a parallel threat to the existence of Israel in the form of precision guided missiles in the hands of its terror proxies.

Iran accelerating Hezbollah's precision missile program after years of failure, Israel says

***

www.haaretz.com

Some here underestimate the gravity of how a future conflict is going to look like. The degree of destruction will be unprecedented, critical and military infrastructure throughout the entire Middle East will come under fire (just look at how Iran managed to hit those Aramco facilities in 2019 when it halted 50% of Saudi oil production with just one small barrage of UAVs and missiles); cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi will targetted. The economic ramifications will be grave and global.

 

[Fluff]

The degree of destruction will be unprecedented, critical and military infrastructure throughout the entire Middle East will come under fire

You understand that Iran is in the Middle East, right?

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Come back to us when Iran has anywhere near that capability to deliver that sort of strike anywhere in the world

They managed to "sink" a mock-up carrier once. Kind of.

And also they shot down a plane once. A civilian one though.

They have weapons but... don't quite know how to use them it seems.

 

[Mordoror]

Yet, your information about Iran's military capabilities is largely outdated as well. The prominence of Shahab-3s in Iran's missile arsenal is ancient past. Iran has developed much more capable, survivable and accurate MRBMs such as the Sejjil. Uzi Rubin for instance, Israel's leading missile expert who formerly managed the development of the Arrow anti-ballistic missile defence system, estimates that Iran alone has about precision-guided 1000 missiles that are able to reach Israel. And this likely a very conservative estimate.

Well yes, i forgot about the Seijil/Ghadr/Ashura
The operability of the lastest batches is not clear to me (batch 3 for example) and their number is not openly estimated.
I agree that Iran has certainly a lot of missiles capable to reach Israel. The question however is always, not the final number of missiles but the number of launchers/TELs that can be used at once. This is the bottleneck point in any fire mission

Moreover, the days when Hezbollah could only hit northern Israeli settlements with short-range rockets is long gone as well. By Israel's own account, Hezbollah now fields a significant amount of precision-guides missiles that are able to hit every corner in Israel. I'll quote:

You misread me. I know that. They even bragged about being able to hit Tel Aviv and Dimona. But they are certainly not the majority of the 130 000 "missiles" belonging to the Hezbollah (the majority being in the range of BM 21 Grad rockets and below). The major risk is within a range of 20 to 40 km. Fateh and Zelzal systems can certainly reach deeper but they are less numerous for one obvious reason, they are logistic heavy and far less easier to hide and produce

 

[Mardonius]

They managed to "sink" a mock-up carrier once. Kind of.

And also they shot down a plane once. A civilian one though.

They have weapons but... don't quite know how to use them it seems.

You know how ridiculous this caricature sounds for anyone who has closely watching the developments in the Middle East for the past few years, right? It is one thing to share ideological-friendly articles and tweets with your buddies over here in the echo-chamber, but perhaps it is time for you (and others) to get acquainted with what is currently developing in arguably the world's most volatile region.

Let me give you some heads-up:

* In 2018, Iran attacked the headquarter of the PDKI (a militant Iranian-Kurdish party) in Northeastern Iraq with a barrage of 7 ballistic missiles of the Fateh-110 class. It took out the entire upper echelon of the PDKI, killing almost the dozen of their commanders. Uzi Rubin, already mentioned here as the leading missile expert in the Middle East, credited the attack for the precision-guiding era which Iran has ushered in.

Hear his comments in the following clip (from 06:00, although the entire video is very informative):

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* In 2019, Iran used a swarm of suicide drones and cruise missiles to hit a specific ARAMCO facility in Northeastern KSA. It not only demonstrated an extremely high-level of accuracy, but also managed to temporarily cut 50% of Saudi oil production (!). I'm not sure if you realize how significant this was, but imagine the second largest oil producer in the world being under a continuous threat of missiles/drones in any future conflict. Let alone the impact on Saudi alone; the global ramifications are enormous.

Some pictures demonstrating the pin-point accuracy:

* In January of 2020, Iran fired dozens of ballistic missiles at the American air-base Ein Asaad in Iraq to retaliate for the assassination of Soleimani. It was the first time in decades that a country executed an overt attack on an American military base. In this attack, the vulnerability of giant, stationary air bases to precision missile strikes was effectively demonstrated. Prior to the attack, the US teams at that base had launched a fleet of Predator UAVs for patrolling the base perimeter. One of the incoming Iranian missiles hit an underground communications conduit and cut the fiber optic lines between the UAV’s control vans and the system’s transceivers. This caused a loss of ground control over the entire UAV fleet. It took hours to reestablish communication via satellite and bring the UAVs back in.

Needless to say, US combat aircraft based in Iraq were powerless against this missile strike. Simply put, Iran gained air superiority over the
air base by virtue of its precision missiles.

Some comments about the significance of this attack:

The Economist:

Iran’s attack on Iraq shows how precise missiles have become

“The most important takeaway from Iran’s strike is just how precise their short-range ballistic missiles were,” says Vipin Narang of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “The accuracy revolution is real and no longer a monopoly of the United States. This has huge implications for modern conflict.”

Iran’s attack on Iraq shows how precise missiles have become

It scored a series of bullseyes

www.economist.com

The Diplomat:

''The Iranian missile attack on the American bases in al-Asad and Erbil on January 8 surprised many security experts because of their reported accuracy. Until now, the poor accuracy of Iranian missiles was considered by some to be a major deficiency in Iran’s conventional arsenal. The missiles’ circular error probable (CEP – the radius within which half of all missiles launched will fall) of most Iranian missiles was believed to be several hundred meters. In other words, these were dangerous weapons, but they lacked the pinpoint precision necessary to hit specific targets on land or at sea. But reports indicate that the latest attacks may have had a CEP as low as 5-10 meters as they succeeded in six direct hits on empty aircraft hangers.''

What Iran’s Attacks on American Bases Tell Us About China’s Missile Program

For American strategic planners the false belief that Chinese missiles are numerous, but inaccurate, is likely over.

thediplomat.com

Picture:

We are witnessing a new military era at the moment, with some important strategic ramifications.

 

[Fluff]

[QUOTE="Mardonius


We are witnessing a new military era at the moment, with some important strategic ramifications.
[/QUOTE]
And is Iran not equally at risk of being attacked in such a way?

 

[Mardonius]

And is Iran not equally at risk of being attacked in such a way?

No actor will come out unscathed in a future conflict.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

* In 2019, Iran used a swarm of suicide drones and cruise missiles to hit a specific ARAMCO facility in Northeastern KSA. It not only demonstrated an extremely high-level of accuracy, but also managed to temporarily cut 50% of Saudi oil production (!). I'm not sure if you realize how significant this was, but imagine the second largest oil producer in the world being under a continuous threat of missiles/drones in any future conflict. Let alone the impact on Saudi alone; the global ramifications are enormous.

So Iran did do that, despite denying for weeks/months.

Furthering the point that Iran IS a threat for the whole region.

By the way, what was iran aiming at a few days ago?
You know? With missiles crashing not far away from commercial ships, and a US carrier?

 

[Mardonius]

So Iran did do that, despite denying for weeks/months.

Furthering the point that Iran IS a threat for the whole region.

You can't put a country under an economic and military embargo and not expecting that same country to eventually react.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

No actor will come out unscathed in a future conflict.

Making sure to take down as many as possibly along with you?
The "if I'm going down, you're coming with me" mentality? Collective martyrdom in the name of the Mullahs?

Sounds borderline sociopathic...

 

[Fluff]

No actor will come out unscathed in a future conflict.

Then I see this as no more change than the repeating rifle, machine gun, Tank, fighter plane.

If both sides have it, both will try to cancel it out. Its who will be most successful at the cancelling that will win.

 

[Mardonius]

Making sure to take down as many as possibly along with you?
The "if I'm going down, you're coming with me" mentality? Collective martyrdom in the name of the Mullahs?

Sounds borderline sociopathic...

No.

Make sure you have enough means at your disposal that discourages the other side from embarking on ambitious adventures. The concept is called deterrence in military theory.

 

[Fluff]

You can't put a country under an economic and military embargo and not expecting that same country to eventually react.

I think maybe some history, US embargoed Japan, result was war, started by Japan, ended by USA and allies.

Iran is expected to react to sanctions, how it reacts is up to Iran. If it responds militarily, I hope you can see that just like Germany, its a miscalculation to assume 'everyone' wont kick the S**t out of you, once they get annoyed.

Or Iran can return to the talks, with US involved, and agree what they can do, and what they cant do, regarding nukes.

 

[Fluff]

No.

Make sure you have enough means at your disposal that discourages the other side from embarking on ambitious adventures. The concept is called deterrence in military theory.

But many of your posts suggest your going to attack Israel? Your government says its going to destroy Israel? So are you expecting Israel just to 'take it'? That's not deterrence, that's being a bully/idiot, see my previous post about Germany.