Mil News Current Iran/Iraq/US Tensions and Actions Unfolding

[Mardonius]

Then I see this as no more change than the repeating rifle, machine gun, Tank, fighter plane.

If both sides have it, both will try to cancel it out. Its who will be most successful at the cancelling that will win.

No.

But this is a very controversial and complex topic that in my opinion uncovers some shortcomings in western military thinking. It is exactly this Westmorelandian notion of a victory that mistakenly puts emphasis on the amount of material and human damage inflicted on the opposing side.

You don't win wars by having a supremacy in killing and destroying as much as of your enemy; you win wars by cautiously and considerately coalescing well-defined political goals around your military means. Much more a Clausewitzian perspective of what war truly is.

The above is the reason why the West falls short in so many conflicts imo.

 

[Fluff]

No.

But this is a very controversial and complex topic that in my opinion uncovers some shortcomings in western military thinking. It is exactly this Westmorelandian notion of a victory that mistakenly puts emphasis on the amount of material and human damage inflicted on the opposing side.

You don't win wars by having a supremacy in killing and destroying as much as of your enemy; you win wars by cautiously and considerately coalescing well-defined political goals around your military means. Much more a Clausewitzian perspective of what war truly is.

The above is the reason why the West falls short in so many conflicts imo.

Dizzy: My mother always told me that violence doesn't solve anything.

Jean Rasczak: Really? I wonder what the city founders of Hiroshima would have to say about that.

The days of the body count are over. Frankly the days of going to war are over, in terms of the west wanting to conquer anyone.

That just leaves what we regard as control, or misbehavior. So basically If Iran gets out of hand, it will get klobbered. How Iran looks at those human and physical loses, are upto Iran. I would expect if this does happen, that material losses would be severe - its even possible that Iran will be warned as to what the targets are, allowing you to evacuate.

Also dont forget, that reliance on oil is dwindling, in 5 years time no-one is going to care if you block the straits, and there wont be many oil tankers transiting, so good luck with the speedboats tactic.

 

[Mardonius]

That just leaves what we regard as control, or misbehavior. So basically If Iran gets out of hand, it will get klobbered. How Iran looks at those human and physical loses, are upto Iran.

If this accounts for strategy these days, then God help the West.

 

[Fluff]

If this accounts for strategy these days, then God help the West.

its a containment strategy. We could obliterate Iran, inside an hour, the UK or france could do that, so could Israel.

We choose not to, because radioactive fallout is a bitch, and other parties might mistake our actions, i.e. Russia.

Anything we do that is less than this, should not be construed as a weakness. Is it weak to have an Ant hill in your garden? When you have the chemicals to destroy it in your shed?

As I said, and you ignored, Oil will soon be over, then you can all attack each other any way you like, and if it effects our interests we will destroy your stuff. If thats how you want to live in a largely peaceful world, its up to you.

 

[Mardonius]

its a containment strategy. We could obliterate Iran, inside an hour, the UK or france could do that, so could Israel.

We choose not to, because radioactive fallout is a bitch, and other parties might mistake our actions, i.e. Russia.

Yes, you could. And that is exactly the reason why Iran is now a nuclear threshold state. We don't like to live under the clemency of the West.

Anything we do that is less than this, should not be construed as a weakness. Is it weak to have an Ant hill in your garden? When you have the chemicals to destroy it in your shed?

Oh well, on behalf of all of Iran...thank you for this utter gentleness! So nice of you to not drop a couple of nuclear bombs so we don't get obliterated.

As I said, and you ignored, Oil will soon be over, then you can all attack each other any way you like, and if it effects our interests we will destroy your stuff. If thats how you want to live in a largely peaceful world, its up to you.

Good. Oil has been nothing more than a menace for the region. So if the oil-era will soon be over, will you guys finally leave us alone so that we Persians can rightfully claim what is ours...which happens to be the entire Middle East?

 

[Fluff]

Yes, you could. And that is exactly the reason why Iran is now a nuclear threshold state.



Oh well, on behalf of all of Iran...thank you for this utter gentleness! So nice of you to not drop a couple of nuclear bombs so we don't get obliterated.



Good. Oil has been nothing more than a menace for the region. So if the oil-era will soon be over, will you guys finally leave us alone so that we Persians can rightfully claim what is ours...which happens to be the entire Middle East?

I think the other locals have different ideas - I'll refer you to Germany again. I appreciate that a religious dictatorship wont be listening to dissenting voices(if there are any unwise enough to voice them), but talking as if you own other countries is going to cause a few difficulties, dont you think?

Also While there are some negatives from oil, really most of the ME was herding goats and riding camels until the west needed the oil. Some countries seem to have done well out of it, in terms of living standards, population growth etc.

 

[Mordoror]

I think maybe some history, US embargoed Japan, result was war, started by Japan, ended by USA and allies.

Iran is expected to react to sanctions, how it reacts is up to Iran. If it responds militarily, I hope you can see that just like Germany, its a miscalculation to assume 'everyone' wont kick the S**t out of you, once they get annoyed.

Or Iran can return to the talks, with US involved, and agree what they can do, and what they cant do, regarding nukes.

Let's not use comparisons that are not correct
Japan and Germany were fought against and occupied after a World War of a magnitude never reached before
Iran can certainly be hurt by the US but in the meantime, regional US forces (bases, military dispersed from Syria to Irak) and ships are vunerable
Who wants to die for Ispahan or Tel Aviv except those directly concerned

I don't agree with everything Mardonius wrote but Iran has conventional detterence means that means that any large sustained operation against it could prove more costly, economicaly or mediaticaly than benefiting. Much like other actors like NK for example

We are still in the era of the strategic corporal of VietNam. Losses and expenditures are not very well accepted even after a media smearing campaign (see Irak war)

On the other hand, USA has the means to hurt Iran very hard for sure. Each other is holding the opposite side by the cheek

Limted actions would see light, but as long as they stay restrained and limited, they will do the headlines but diplomacy could work behing the curtains. On both sides

We are at the level of firing a couple of missiles is a diplomatical/political message. Killing a few scientists, embargoeing a country are the same too. That looks violent but far less than an all out shooting on both sides
The only uncertainty is : does US and Iran politics understand how each others are functionning and have they a tight control over their assets.
True wars have begnun because of idiots going beynd their orders on the ground. Let's hope it wont reach that point.

 

[Mardonius]

I think the other locals have different ideas - I'll refer you to Germany again. I appreciate that a religious dictatorship wont be listening to dissenting voices(if there are any unwise enough to voice them), but talking as if you own other countries is going to cause a few difficulties, dont you think?

Leave the locals to us mate so you guys can worry about the correct fishing quota in the pond.

Also While there are some negatives from oil, really most of the ME was herding goats and riding camels until the west needed the oil. Some countries seem to have done well out of it, in terms of living standards, population growth etc.

That is because you came late to the party and found the Middle East at its weakest period. Historically though, we guys always dwarfed you in terms of science, culture or whatever metric there is. The global supremacy of the West is a relatively short period in world's history and is waning with the day. Asia will eventually get its prominence back, which in history has always been more a rule than exception.

 

[Fluff]

Let's not use comparisons that are not correct
Japan and Germany were fought against and occupied after a World War of a magnitude never reached before
Iran can certainly be hurt by the US but in the meantime, regional US forces (bases, military dispersed from Syria to Irak) and ships are vunerable
Who wants to die for Ispahan or Tel Aviv except those directly concerned

I don't agree with everything Mardonius wrote but Iran has conventional detterence means that means that any large sustained operation against it could prove more costly, economicaly or mediaticaly than benefiting. Much like other actors like NK for example

We are still in the era of the strategic corporal of VietNam. Losses and expenditures are not very well accepted even after a media smearing campaign (see Irak war)

On the other hand, USA has the means to hurt Iran very hard for sure. Each other is holding the opposite side by the cheek

Limted actions would see light, but as long as they stay restrained and limited, they will do the headlines but diplomacy could work behing the curtains. On both sides

We are at the level of firing a couple of missiles is a diplomatical/political message. Killing a few scientists, embargoeing a country are the same too. That looks violent but far less than an all out shooting on both sides
The only uncertainty is : does US and Iran politics understand how each others are functionning and have they a tight control over their assets.
True wars have begnun because of idiots going beynd their orders on the ground. Let's hope it wont reach that point.

Japan is to illustrate the wrong decisions that can be made, likewise Germany, the World 'ignored' Alsace etc, eventually the world reacted.

I really fear Iran making a similar decision, no real response to attacking the oil refinery in saudi, next step lob some missiles at Israel etc.

Yes Iran can hurt US forces etc in the region, US knows it, and if US took action, they would presumably minimize their personnel, deploy more radars, aircraft etc. US could if it so chose, do serious damage to Iran, military, or civilian, bridges, power stations, factories etc. The 2 are not equal.

I dont want anyone to attack, but Mardonious seems to believe Iran can act without there being a response, and also seemingly has a right to attack others, and somewhat unusually in todays world, Iran has threatened to wipe out Israel.

 

[Fluff]

Leave the locals to us mate so you guys can worry about the correct fishing quota in the pond.

If we wanted those damned fish we would use our carriers and our nukes!

That is because you came late to the party and found the Middle East at its weakest period. Historically though, we guys always dwarfed you in terms of science, culture or whatever metric there is. The global supremacy of the West is a relatively short period in world's history and is waning with the day. Asia will eventually get its prominence back, which in history has always been more a rule than exception.

Everyone made some historic discoveries way back when. I must have missed the boatloads of people trying to get into Iran and the rest of the ME.

I can understand you wont like the religious part, but the Judeo-christian capitalist system is going to be here for a long time, and ME and China have a part to play, and are playing - extracting oil is taking part. Really the trading part comes more from your history.

I have said this a few times, but still valid: - Everyone wants to be middle class.

 

[Mardonius]

I dont want anyone to attack, but Mardonious seems to believe Iran can act without there being a response, and also seemingly has a right to attack

That was just a bit of banter.

 

[Fluff]

That was just a bit of banter.

Why didnt you say, thats ok then!

 

[Mordoror]

Japan is to illustrate the wrong decisions that can be made, likewise Germany, the World 'ignored' Alsace etc, eventually the world reacted.

I really fear Iran making a similar decision, no real response to attacking the oil refinery in saudi, next step lob some missiles at Israel etc.

Yes Iran can hurt US forces etc in the region, US knows it, and if US took action, they would presumably minimize their personnel, deploy more radars, aircraft etc. US could if it so chose, do serious damage to Iran, military, or civilian, bridges, power stations, factories etc. The 2 are not equal.

I dont want anyone to attack, but Mardonious seems to believe Iran can act without there being a response, and also seemingly has a right to attack others, and somewhat unusually in todays world, Iran has threatened to wipe out Israel.

True that the 2 are certainly not equal. However imho mitigation wont work. Iran is not some backward african lord of war domain

For significant effect, US would have to ramp up its deployement which would be a signal
In the same way, minimizing personal is a signal that something is bound to happen
And you never mitigate enough

Naval mines are cheap, naval mine sweaping is hard and US seems to have lost a bit of know how in that domain
Same thing, you cannot protect all your positions all around the world be it military bases (and US has numerous ones in various muslim countries with significant shia minority), embassies, factories, plants
A nation wide attack will mean nation wide retaliation
One would lay dead (Iran) but the other one would have quite some stiches to patch
That's why detterence so far works in both ways. If not, Iran would have gone Syria way for years by now

 

[BCNTM]

No actor will come out unscathed in a future conflict.

So throwing a few missiles at Kurd who have no defence is fine

Just remember that the yanks have increased their strategic oil reserves from about 90 days to well over a year now - so no oil is not going to hurt them

So you may get a few 'victories' early on and look really clever - but once push comes to shove Iran would be decimated, and you will be crying for peace - just how stupid are you?

Just look at what the Americans did to Iraq - they will have a first night target list - so that all your subs gone - all your airfields - all your nuke facilities - all your command and control - and then take it from there

Iraq's Republican Guard thought they were special - they looked really special after 30 days of constant round the clock hammering

You lot couldn't even get a victory against Iraq and look how they folded like a pack of cards when faced with a real army

why not just sit back and get rich on the oil money and build some nice hotels and enjoy yourself - the way you are going the only thing that will be going on in Iran will be glassmaking

and you have still not answered the question of why does Israel upset you so much

 

[BCNTM]

That's why detterence so far works in both ways. If not, Iran would have gone Syria way for years by now

You mean the Ruskis would have to step in to prop up the Mullah's against their own people.....

 

[Mike1976]

Israel is a bit more able? Yah, ask your scientists.

Time to break out the oujia board!

 

[BCNTM]

Time to break out the oujia board!

His head and his heart are just not in it (the car)

 

[Mardonius]

So throwing a few missiles at Kurd who have no defence is fine

Iran also regularly penetrates Saudi air defenses. You know, those fancy and latest American systems that are manned by the British.

Just remember that the yanks have increased their strategic oil reserves from about 90 days to well over a year now - so no oil is not going to hurt them

A sudden and sustained rupture of oil supplies and production in the Middle East will have global impact, which the yanks will surely feel as well. That's basic economics.

So you may get a few 'victories' early on and look really clever - but once push comes to shove Iran would be decimated, and you will be crying for peace - just how stupid are you?

I'm outright denying the fact that the US or any other actor can get a victory out of a future conflict.

Just look at what the Americans did to Iraq - they will have a first night target list - so that all your subs gone - all your airfields - all your nuke facilities - all your command and control - and then take it from there

Yes. And Iran will just stand idly as its infrastructure comes under attack. How quickly you think the US' military infrastructure will be targetted by Iran's ballistic and cruise missiles, severing them in the process? Iran is not a punching bag, my friend.

Iraq's Republican Guard thought they were special - they looked really special after 30 days of constant round the clock hammering

False equivalence.

You lot couldn't even get a victory against Iraq and look how they folded like a pack of cards when faced with a real army

Our lot just went through a bloody revolution, with the Shah's army purged from its finest officers, did not have the technology we currently have, etc. You are comparing apples with oranges.

A bit like how the Russians managed to underperform against the Finnish, yet steamroll over the Germans a couple of years later.

why not just sit back and get rich on the oil money and build some nice hotels and enjoy yourself - the way you are going the only thing that will be going on in Iran will be glassmaking

Keep dreaming, You guys can't do a damn thing without destroying yourself in the process, whether economically, politically or militarily. The West is not in its best shape these days, and hardly can afford to get in a conflict with a power like Iran.

 

[Mardonius]

I'm just going to leave this here:

But others worry that he might be to eager to get into a fight. “Back when he was Centcom commander,” the senior Marine officer says, “Jim was really focused on Iran, and was well aware that any kind of confrontation with them could easily spin out of control. He once did a study of it, and completely shut down Navy officers who told him the Iranian military was no match for the Americans. He just rejected that. Totally. ''

James Mattis’ 33-Year Grudge Against Iran

Many in the Pentagon worry that Trump’s pick for defense secretary is looking for a fight in the Middle East.

www.politico.com

Here we have the former head of the CENTCOM correcting his junior officers who mistakenly believed that Iran is no match for the Americans, yet some couch analyst on this forum who hardly know any Iranian weapon by name delude themselves with their 'glassmaking' scenarios.

 

[Fluff]

So throwing a few missiles at Kurd who have no defence is fine

Just remember that the yanks have increased their strategic oil reserves from about 90 days to well over a year now - so no oil is not going to hurt them

So you may get a few 'victories' early on and look really clever - but once push comes to shove Iran would be decimated, and you will be crying for peace - just how stupid are you?

Just look at what the Americans did to Iraq - they will have a first night target list - so that all your subs gone - all your airfields - all your nuke facilities - all your command and control - and then take it from there

Iraq's Republican Guard thought they were special - they looked really special after 30 days of constant round the clock hammering

You lot couldn't even get a victory against Iraq and look how they folded like a pack of cards when faced with a real army

why not just sit back and get rich on the oil money and build some nice hotels and enjoy yourself - the way you are going the only thing that will be going on in Iran will be glassmaking

and you have still not answered the question of why does Israel upset you so much

what he said...