Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[muck]

@Ivan le Fou
Your theory (regarding the Azov Regiment) sounds very plausible and if that were the extent of Russia's demands, I'd say Zelenskyy should play ball at once. But the lack of specification worries me. US and NATO sources are, obviously, very well informed about the Russian war effort and plan (hardly a surprise given the news we hear of unsecured communication channels and complete chaos in the rear). Since their previous claims and predictions were all correct, however, I'm afraid it's save to say the Russians do have a kill list. Which is probably being expanded all the time.

And all that talk of "denazification" sounds more like executions and kangaroo courts is what Putin truly has in mind.

Starting to sound like the Imperial Russian Navy's trip to Tushima.

Earlier tonight I wrote that their incompetence gives me solace. The problem is, like all bullies Putin will lash out even harder the more he looks like a fool. The cities of Ukraine are already feeling his wrath. Soon, the Russians will surely begin to level settlements which offer them any resistance. I'm also wondering about the implications for a potential confrontation between Russia and NATO. It seems to me that the apparent shortcomings of the Russian armed forces do increase the risk of their leader getting frustrated and pushing a certain red button.

 

[Junglejim]

@Ivan le Fou
Your theory (regarding the Azov Regiment) sounds very plausible and if that were the extent of Russia's demands, I'd say Zelenskyy should play ball at once. But the lack of specification worries me. US and NATO sources are, obviously, very well informed about the Russian war effort and plan (hardly a surprise given the news we hear of unsecured communication channels and complete chaos in the rear). Since their previous claims and predictions were all correct, however, I'm afraid it's save to say the Russians do have a kill list. Which is probably being expanded all the time.

And all that talk of "denazification" sounds more like executions and kangaroo courts is what Putin truly has in mind.
Earlier tonight I wrote that their incompetence gives me solace. The problem is, like all bullies Putin will lash out even harder the more he looks like a fool. The cities of Ukraine are already feeling his wrath. Soon, the Russians will surely begin to level settlements which offer them any resistance. I'm also wondering about the implications for a potential confrontation between Russia and NATO. It seems to me that the apparent shortcomings of the Russian armed forces do increase the risk of their leader getting frustrated and pushing a certain red button.

More often in this thread posters mention the "Russians wrath." I wont deny that, but people tend to forget that from the looks of it the Ukranina populations response to the invaders seems to be pretty tame and polite. As the Russians pull the gloves off and hammer the civilians, I have a feeling that it will be reciprocated. It would be like Afghanistan. but with the insrgents being better armed than the occupiers.

I really dont see any win for Russia here.

 

[primer]

If they knew what was what why then did they not invoke the full sanctions prior. Which are effective and would have had more time to be effective.
They were guessing along with Ursula's prepared preparations that were not. Half of them think Putin is mad and unpredictable. Putin's own assessment of hitting the red button is to return to the survivors an age of using sticks.
Its been effective to thwart the idea of a similar peacekeeping mission arriving from the EU. Or maybe suitable for an excuse not to get involved. Biden is more of a non involver.

 

[Chazman]

It's morning there. Apparently Kharkiv was hit hard last night.

 

[Paya]

Love one of the comments: "Did one of the VDV F*** Putin's mom or something, he seems to be out for this guys"

The VDV is their Marine Corps. They go in first because they are considered their best. Никто, кроме нас and all that.

That said, I doubt they sent them to air assault an urban environment.

 

[Kassner]

More often in this thread posters mention the "Russians wrath." I wont deny that, but people tend to forget that from the looks of it the Ukranina populations response to the invaders seems to be pretty tame and polite. As the Russians pull the gloves off and the hammer the civilians, I have a feeling that it will be reciprocated. It would be like Afghanistan with the insrgents being better armed than the occupiers.

I really dont see any win for Russia here.

I don't see Russia winning this either. But it's because they won't be able to hold Ukraine. I mean what's the plan once they take Kiev? This entire thing is so ill-planned it's astounding.
The occupation phase is where the 'armed Ukrainain civilian' will be invaluable. Same as Afghanistan.

But an armed civilian populace isn't gonna stop the initial assault. When bombarded 99% of civilians will S**t their pants. The rest have no training, which basically makes them cannon fodder.

 

[Chazman]

The VDV is their Marine Corps. They go in first because they are considered their best. Никто, кроме нас and all that.

That said, I doubt they sent them to air assault an urban environment.

VDV are their Airborne Forces. They are considered top tier troops. It appears that they have been employed recklessly and have suffered inordinate casualties.

 

[Junglejim]

Bruuuuuh... if this is true...

 

[Chazman]

Macgregor is worth a watch

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Col Douglas Macgregor Talks Common Sense With Tucker Carlson About the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Video - The Last Refuge

Col Douglas Macgregor appeared for a sit-down interview with Tucker Carlson tonight to discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. So far, Macgregor is the one who has been the most accurate in his assessments when compared to the results on the ground in Ukraine. If what...

theconservativetreehouse.com

 

[muck]

More often in this thread posters mention the "Russians wrath." I wont deny that, but people tend to forget that from the looks of it the Ukranina populations response to the invaders seems to be pretty tame and polite. As the Russians pull the gloves off and the hammer the civilians, I have a feeling that it will be reciprocated. It would be like Afghanistan with the insrgents being better armed than the occupiers.

I don't quite understand your point. The Russians were welcomed by a many Syrians yet still managed to kill thousands through the indiscriminate use of force. Besides, I don't see how you arrived at your conclusions. It seems to me that Ukraine's claims about Russia's losses – many of which were inflicted by reservists and armed civilians – are more or less accurate.

Exaggeration is to be expected, but the body of proof regarding Ukraine's effective resistance as well as the poor perfomance of the Russian military is substantial and leads me to believe that Putin's invasion army is, indeed, suffering disproportionate losses. That's problematic for the regime.

It's not just about Ukraine. Putin needs to win, and fast.

A hypothetical Russian failure to seize Ukraine would be so momentous one cannot even conceive of the consequences.

Also, let's not forget the language Putin is using. All Ukrainians who offer resistance are, in his words, misguided at best and drug-addicted fascists at worst. If the Russians continue to struggle, they are absolutely likely to resort to what they did in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria.

If they knew what was what why then did they not invoke the full sanctions prior. Which are effective and would have had more time to be effective.
They were guessing along with Ursula's prepared preparations that were not. Half of them think Putin is mad and unpredictable. Putin's own assessment of hitting the red button is to return to the survivors an age of using sticks.
Its been effective to thwart the idea of a similar peacekeeping mission arrivint form the EU. Or maybe suitable for an excuse not to get involved. Biden is more of a non involver.

My take on the situation pre-February 24 is that Western governments believed that Putin was going to secure the independence of Luhansk and Donbas by force and annex them in the same manner as he had done Crimea. They thought that his troops build-up was meant to prevent anyone from wrestling the regions away again. Going back through February, I find little evidence in America's and Britain's warnings of an imminent invasion that Putin was necessarily going to attack the entire country.

Which seems all the more plausible now that rising dissent from within the State Duma (some deputies of which now say they wouldn't have ever voted for recognising the breakaway provinces if they'd known the truth), as well as the poor perfomance of ill-prepared Russian ground commanders, seem to suggest the decision was made by Putin largely without counselling with anyone. In terms of realpolitik, letting him seize Donbas and Luhasnk was probably preferrable to risking all-out war.

It's not the first time that few foresaw a major turning point in world history. Just think of the fall of the Iron Curtain and 9/11.

 

[Gordus]

.

His Generals are thinking: WTF! Shut up!!!!!!!

Did Lukashenko just give away Putin’s battle plan…

Daily Mail has the full story… Belarus dictator Lukashenko addresses his security council in front of map that seems to detail Russia’s battle plan after Ukraine, which includes …

citizenfreepress.com

Their faces say everything. He is either revealing sensitive info, or speaking really absurd bs, like every politician who think they are Alexander the Great.

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[Kassner]

Bruuuuuh... if this is true...

View attachment 374825

Unfortunately, this likely didn;t occur. No different than 90% of content about this conflict circulating the interwebs.
If hackers were able to shut down the control center there'd be negative ramifications for the International Space Station also.

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[Marat]

Any info on this?

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Yes, 4-5 Russian vehicles actually were destroyed there

 

[Marat]

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US colonel assessment of the situation in Ukr.

 

[muck]

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US colonel assessment of the situation in Ukr.

That's a lovely person who's tweeting there. No wonder they're appreciative of Fox's talking points.

 

[Junglejim]

I don't quite understand your point.

My point is as Russia gets more frustrated and pummel the cities, the less the civilians will be as cordial as how they been to the Russian invaders. Someone mentioned that they didnt see IED's and what not and another answered its because life is still on going. With destroyed cities all that goes out of the window and Civilians will get angrier.

Will the Russians be able to kill more civilians, sure but a lot more russians will start dying instead of just being taken prisoners as life gets hashers for teh ukrainians.

Unfortunately, this likely didn;t occur. No different than 90% of content about this conflict circulating the interwebs.
If hackers were able to shut down the control center there'd be negative ramifications for the International Space Station also.

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This being a rumor is a good thing. You want the russians to be in contact and see whats happening to at least make some semblance of a rational decision. rather than be out in the dark and letting their imaginations run

 

[Gordus]

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US colonel assessment of the situation in Ukr.

That argument is already defeated by the fact that prospect of NATO membership was virtualy gone, when Putin took Crimea and instigated Donbas war. But I agree with the theory, that Putin might very well call it a day by simply annexing large parts of Eastern Ukraine. Not only will he save face, but it will ultimately be a Russian victory.

 

[muck]

Now the word is that it was 80+ vehicles, not 800+ and it was in Sumy. 40 of them were MRLs.

That seems more reasonable a number. By the way, if one sends Ukrainian government dispatches through DeepL the term that they're mostly seem to be using to describe their activities is "engage". Like in: so and so many vehicles were engaged. Which is not only more credible but also make as difference. You don't have to "destroy" an enemy vehicle to take it out of the action.

That argument is already defeated by the fact that prospect of NATO membership was virtualy gone, when Putin took Crimea and instigated Donbas war. But I agree with the theory, that Putin might very well call it a day by simply annexing large parts of Eastern Ukraine. Not only will he save face, but it will ultimately be a Russian victory.

It's kind of amazing how both the hard left in Europe and the right in the US constantly ignore how in Putin's very own words, this is not about NATO.

 

[Paya]

VDV are their Airborne Forces. They are considered top tier troops. It appears that they have been employed recklessly and have suffered inordinate casualties.

I know, I was saying that they are to the Russian Military kinda what the USMC is to the US one. They're supposed to be used recklessly, but airdropping them among high-rises is a bit of a stretch.

 

[Chazman]

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US colonel assessment of the situation in Ukr.

Posted that a few pages ago. Interesting the way Jennifer Griffin spends 10 minutes bristling after he left. On the previous page I posted another interview with Macgregor. Worth a listen. He's usually right on. But he goes against the mainstream narrative.

None of this had to happen.