Putin is 72. Is don´t think eh will stay much longer but not because they see him as a "failure". I've said it before; you watch interviews of foreign channels and youtubers and you realize that he still has a lot of popularity. Regardless of the final outcome of this war, the Russians will think they were superior. That's what happens when you dominate communications with propaganda.

72 and rumors of health issues. But yes, it will be framed domestically as a great victory against NATO and the West.
 
The negotiations have begun.

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I'd like to hear from my European friends, what role do you see the EU playing in these negotiations? I have my own view, but I'd like to hear from you guys first.
 
Putins middle leg man, Nikolai Patrushev on the anniversary on end of Winter War:

Finland to blame for Winter War
  • Soviet union was trying to solve everything diplomatically
  • Finland was militarized and wanted greater Finland - In similar way Finland today is a bridgehead for potential future invasion of Russia.
  • Finland was part of Russian Empire for hundred years
Note: This is basically 180º from late 80's Soviet and 90's Russian history. Back then they admitted openly that they were responsible for the war.
  • Finnish leadership took Finland to nato against will of the people
  • Nato uses cyber warfare against Russian ships in the baltic to cause accidents
  • Nato is responsible for the sabotage in the baltic in the accidents against infrastructure
  • Nato is speeding up it's terror activities against Russian undersea infrastructure
This is just Finland. Russia has similar narratives against all it's neighbors in case they need to justify a new war, while none of the neighbors want to carve up parts of their wasteland. Very similar to narrative against Ukraine.
Nikolai Patrushev, 73, who currently works as an aide to Vladimir Putin, launches a full-scale attack on Finland in a lengthy interview that appeared in the magazine Natsionalnaya Oborona on the anniversary of the end of the Winter War on March 13.

The magazine National Defense is a leading Russian military magazine focused on defense, published once a month. Patrushev is considered one of the most influential war hawks in Putin’s administration. Before that, he worked as the secretary of the Russian Security Council and the head of the FSB.

In the interview, Patrushev blames NATO for the accidents that have already occurred in the Baltic Sea and claims that NATO is preparing for cyberattacks against the Russian fleet.

“It is worth reminding the Finns that the Gulf of Finland is not the private property of any country. And there is no need to forget that Finland was part of the Russian Empire for a century,” Patrushev says in a question-and-answer article.

This is a typical expression used by the Russian leadership, which contains a veiled threat. This creates the impression that Finland is actually still in Russia's sphere of interest due to its history.

Turning to the situation in the Baltic Sea, Patrushev adopts another argument commonly used by Russian propaganda, accusing NATO of what Russia itself suspects it has already done or is planning.

According to Patrushev, NATO’s European members are deliberately increasing tensions in the Baltic Sea, which poses a serious threat to Russian ports and the navy.

– NATO is practicing the use of cyberattacks against the Russian navy’s navigation equipment. The goal is to cause anomalies in the systems, including situations that could lead to accidents, Patrushev paints.

According to Patrushev, NATO has brought an increased military presence to the Baltic Sea “allegedly invoking the prevention of sabotage.” However, this, he says, is just an excuse, as NATO countries are themselves to blame for the incidents that have already occurred, he claims.

– Experts are inclined to believe that NATO countries are themselves the organizers, sponsors and executors of cases where merchant shipping has been increasingly involved in accidents and underwater infrastructure has been damaged, Patrushev claims.

– According to available information, their naval forces are planning to intensify terrorist activities against Russia’s underwater pipeline and cable network, as well as tankers and cargo ships, he continues.

Former Prime Minister Sanna Marinia Patrushev, for her part, accuses her of ruining relations between Finland and Russia and claims that she received a well-paid position at the Tony Blair Institute in London for this.

Read more: Putin's aide accuses Sanna Marin in harsh words

The article also reminds us that March 13, 2025 will mark the 85th anniversary of the end of the Winter War. Interviewer Igor Korotchenko informs Patrushev that his words create the impression that the present is something similar to the Winter War.

– There are indeed similarities, Patrushev replies.

After this, Patrushev moves on to accuse Finland of distorting history – that is, of what Russia itself is currently practicing increasingly fiercely towards Finland.

Patrushev claims that Finland is deliberately distorting the history of the Winter War and the reasons that led to the war. According to him, Finland does not want to remember how ultra-nationalist forces demanded the establishment of Greater Finland and that Finland was actively militarized before the Winter War.

According to Patrushev, the Soviet Union tried to use all diplomatic means to guarantee the security of Leningrad and even offered Finland a territorial exchange to move the border further away, but Finland rejected peaceful offers and continued to increase its military power. According to him, this created a real threat to the Soviet Union and especially to the existence of Leningrad.

–Today we see a similar situation – Finnish territory is once again becoming a bridgehead for potential aggression against Russia, this time under NATO, Patrushev claims.

In fact, Joseph Stalin's goal was not only to move the border further away from Leningrad, but to subjugate all of Finland to Soviet rule. The Soviet Union itself staged the Mainila shootings, which provided a pretext for war.

 
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I'd like to hear from my European friends, what role do you see the EU playing in these negotiations? I have my own view, but I'd like to hear from you guys first.

EU will like to keep membership in EU open for Ukraine.

It should also be talking about the security guarantees, but large european countries might bring their own negotiators to talk about that.
 
72 and rumors of health issues. But yes, it will be framed domestically as a great victory against NATO and the West.

But then again, people can live surprisingly long with modern medicine. Even with all sorts of health issues.

The negotiations have begun.

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Liarov Liaroving. No mention of Nato or alliances in declaration of independence.

I'm also pretty sure the constitution only mentions foreign bases in Ukraine, not membership in alliances. And all constitutions can be changed. And it was independence from Soviet Union, not Russia. The narrative is nonsense.
 
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Rare close-up footage of a Russian FAB-3000 bomb hitting the Kursk region of Russia. The video was filmed by a Ukrainian drone. The FAB-3000 bomb was dropped by a Russian Su-34 aircraft at a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian army in one of the villages. The size of the bomb and the installed UMPK module are clearly visible. Technical information about the FAB-3000 bomb is in the link to the video in the comments to the video.

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I'd like to hear from my European friends, what role do you see the EU playing in these negotiations? I have my own view, but I'd like to hear from you guys first.
My guess: Passive aggressive twitter trolling.

On a more serious note: I don't know, as European leadership isn't quite what I would like it to be. The smaller countries lack the leverage, while the larger countries have leadership issues and on EU level Orban and co are sabotaging everything.

They will probably want to sit at the same table and make some side remarks, while the big boys are arm wrestling.
 
what role do you see the EU playing in these negotiations?
Diplomacy is done (usually) behind closed doors like it should, so it's difficult to say. Mainly because in my opinion by looking at anecdotal evidence EU (and uk) already have played an part in these first steps to negotiations.
So i think its actual role we will read in the history books.

For sure it will play a part in regards to security guarantees and so forth, but thats down the road
 
My guess: Passive aggressive twitter trolling.

On a more serious note: I don't know, as European leadership isn't quite what I would like it to be. The smaller countries lack the leverage, while the larger countries have leadership issues and on EU level Orban and co are sabotaging everything.

They will probably want to sit at the same table and make some side remarks, while the big boys are arm wrestling.

Ha! Yes, the first part for sure!

We know what the Russians don't want:

1) No NATO membership for Ukraine.

2) No NATO troops in Ukraine.

3) No land give backs.

I think the Russians know they can't have all 3.
 
BREAKING:

Putin just agreed to a 30 day ceasefire.
 
Ha! Yes, the first part for sure!

We know what the Russians don't want:

1) No NATO membership for Ukraine.

2) No NATO troops in Ukraine.

3) No land give backs.

I think the Russians know they can't have all 3.
That sounds quite optimistic, but I hope you are right.
 
So no, is the answer at the moment
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72 and rumors of health issues. But yes, it will be framed domestically as a great victory against NATO and the West.
everyone is going to claim 'victory'

Trump for stopping it.
Biden for keeping Ukraine in the game
Russia/Putin for eradicating nazism keeping NATO of Russia's border(Whilst expanding NATO to Russia's borders!)
UK and Europe same as Biden
Ukraine for standing up to a superpower, and saving Europe, and American Blood.
 
Ha! Yes, the first part for sure!

We know what the Russians don't want:

1) No NATO membership for Ukraine.

2) No NATO troops in Ukraine.

3) No land give backs.

I think the Russians know they can't have all 3.
1 all agree except Ukraine, trade for weapons.
2 agree, we dont want to come.
3 sound negotiable, Putin keeps Crimea and certified by Ukraine that it is Russian, Russia gives back 1 or 2 of the mainland regions, as DMZ.

Trump and others already hinted at this - now its showtime, some arguments - maybe even the Zelensky one was scripted - NATO offering to come was for sure scripted.

So hopefully ceasefire, then 4 weeks of urgent meetings, nice hotels etc. Then a peacedeal, presumably signed in Saudi, who agree to give Ukr $1BN for repair work.

This one is over, lock the thread!
 
Ha! Yes, the first part for sure!

We know what the Russians don't want:

1) No NATO membership for Ukraine.

2) No NATO troops in Ukraine.

3) No land give backs.

I think the Russians know they can't have all 3.
Russia wants more.

Russia still wants the all the regions it annexed and to make a connection all the way to Moldova and "StraightNistria"

They still don´t know they cannot get all that. And political control in Kyiv making it a puppet stake.

Militarily it does not have the power as long as Ukraine can get its hands on defensive weapons. But it can get it off the battlefield should the Ukrainians believe their fight is pointless.Moral of the Ukrainians matters.
 
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