Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[muck]

@Mike1976

I get your point, but I wouldn't draw on Afghanistan as a basis for such predictions. Stationing troops in Ukraine would be orders of magnitude cheaper. The logistical foot print isn't even remotely comparable.

 

[Mike1976]

@Mike1976

I get your point, but I wouldn't draw on Afghanistan as a basis for such predictions. Stationing troops in Ukraine would be orders of magnitude cheaper. The logistical foot print isn't even remotely comparable.

You'd have to rebuild infrastructure as @Musashi pointed out because it's been destroyed and/or not up to NATO specs so unusable. The Black Sea would have to swept for mines first. There's only one port available anyway and one=none especially with russian AshM batteries in Crimea. Railway is the most logical option, but very prone to sabotage by -definitely not russians-. Supplying that large a force over a spotty road network (highways like in the European context end before the border) is going to cost a f*ckton. You'd have to lay proper roads for the MSRs yourself. Air transport is too expensive and a lot of the rear area is covered by S-300 and S-400 and those systems might be crap, but they've proven that they can shoot down big, slow and defenceless aircraft.

Then there's the bases that need to be constructed, storage, maintenance and repair facilities, airbases expanded or built from scratch, defenses dug and built etc.

This is all theory anyway since russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO, and having a NATO army inside neutral Ukraine is the same thing, just with a different name. Putler would have to be seriously drunk and on meds to agree to that, and even if he was sober then the agreement still wouldn't be worth the paper it was signed on -> Debaltseve.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

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[Musashi]

Poland is the only European landpower with significant means and the brains to go all-in.
I'd say it is possible, but it will be difficult to realise. It's not so much a question of ability but one of will. In most European countries, there is already a strong minority against aiding Ukraine. If that aid is to become one of putting boots on the ground, minorities could easily become majorities. I'd expect a lot of help from Poland, Britain, Sweden, Finland and possibly France, and less so from Italy and Turkey. Germany is a question mark, it all hinges on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

Poland is not a European land power by any means.
Google AI says:

The Polish Armed Forces have over 292,000 active duty personnel:

• Land Forces: 100,200 active duty personnel, plus over 40,000 in reserve
• Air Force: 46,500 personnel and more than 261 aircraft
• Navy: 17,000 personnel and 46 ships
• Special Forces: 4,000 personnel
• Territorial Defence Force: 55,000 personnel

So, out of this 100,200 active duty personnel, just about 40,000 are combat-ready troops and these 4000 special forces soldiers count as well.

Territorial Defence forces are weekend soldiers who have repeatedly failed their certification. They cannot do most combat tasks and don't have any heavy weapons.

Even amongst land forces, there are many soldiers whom other soldiers refer to as "socialists". Let's say, somebody earns an equivalent of €1100 before tax as a cashier at a supermarket. He/she joins the army just because they can earn an equivalent of €1500 before tax as a private. They have free food and accommodation on top of that, but they have no motivation apart from the money.

Also, Poland has no reserve forces.

90% of 155mm SPHs, 50% of tanks and over 50% of IFVs and APCs have already been donated to Ukraine. Unlike most European armies, the Polish Army did not donate their reserve equipment but the active one, no matter how new/old it was.

Poland produces no ammunition but assembles 40,000 155mm shells a year that are made of components imported from Czechia.
That's what RuZZians normally use in two days.

In contrast, Poland had over 300,000 conscripts at the beginning of the 90s plus 1 million reservists.

The Baltic countries introduced a draft, but Polish political parties are not ready for that out of fear of losing elections.

I don't think Poland will be able to build an effective army before 2035.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Czech parliament votes to ban dual citizenship for Russians — Novaya Gazeta Europe

Czech deputies have adopted a legal amendment which imposes new restrictions on Russians in the country hoping to apply for Czech citizenship, the parliament’s website revealed on Wednesday.

novayagazeta.eu

 

[Mike1976]

There's no way to avoid limited conscription regardless of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine or not imo in the foreseeable future. The current system simply isn't bringing in enough recruits and pensions are taking up way too much of defense budgets.

An inventory on the requirements for calling up draftees for the DAF got leaked two weeks ago.

The last time they did that was over 30 years ago.

It found that the army is in no state to train more troops, but that conscription would be reactivated regardless if "neighboring countries" (read: Germany) were to do so as well.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

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[Chazman]

1) Can Europe muster a 100,000 member securiry force for Ukraine?

2) Trump has made it clear he won't send US troops, but is not opposed to Europeans doing so.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[CemalPasha]

Damn

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[surfpunk]

Well, everything is "just words" until Trump's inauguration and his unveiling his plan. Either way, he's signalled that any form of (military) separation should be done by European troops, so it's high time they started talking about it.The means are there; it's the brains where were are lacking.

Germany's Rheinmetall alone will have produced 700,000 155 mm shells by the end of year, which apparently is more than the rest of NATO. The entire European output is supposedly in the neighbourhood of 1.1 million and planned to rise to 1.5 million in 2025. But not all of that goes to Ukraine. The majority goes to our own depleted stocks, to Israel and (money makes the world go round) the Arab monarchies.

Our priorities are all over the place. That's because some governments (like Berlin) are incapable of strategic thinking, and others (like Paris) are engaged in protectionism. London has little to contribute in terms of land warfare systems and munitions.
Poland is the only European landpower with significant means and the brains to go all-in.
I'd say it is possible, but it will be difficult to realise. It's not so much a question of ability but one of will. In most European countries, there is already a strong minority against aiding Ukraine. If that aid is to become one of putting boots on the ground, minorities could easily become majorities. I'd expect a lot of help from Poland, Britain, Sweden, Finland and possibly France, and less so from Italy and Turkey. Germany is a question mark, it all hinges on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

I forgot about Poland...

 

[Mike1976]

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[Mike1976]

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[Soldier35]

The first real North Korean 170-mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled guns were recorded by eyewitnesses on one of the military trains in Russia. There is little information about the M-1989 Koksan self-propelled guns; they were created in the 1970s on the chassis of T-54, T-62 or Type 59 tanks. With a 170-mm gun, more than 58 calibers long, the M1989 DPRK self-propelled gun can fire shells at a range of up to 40 km, and active-rocket projectiles at a range of up to 60 km.

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[Picanha]

The Kooksans barrel is made of two pieces, because of lacking technologies. Its very unprecise.

Its intention is to terrorise SK with indiscriminent shelling.

It can shoot 1 to 2 times in 5 minutes.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[Fluff]

1) Can Europe muster a 100,000 member securiry force for Ukraine?

2) Trump has made it clear he won't send US troops, but is not opposed to Europeans doing so.

Not being funny, but Europe should be, in public, calling this the best idea since sliced bread, and what a brilliant idea from Trump.

Because Putin will hate having NATO on the russian border. So its never going to happen.

So get behind it.

To answer, I'd say yes, Europe/UK could find 100,000 troops. Probably lean on Greece/Turkey/poland for the bodies, with Uk/Germany/france providing helicopters, engineers, fighter and air defence cover, and paying for the bodies.

 

[Chazman]

Not being funny, but Europe should be, in public, calling this the best idea since sliced bread, and what a brilliant idea from Trump.

Because Putin will hate having NATO on the russian border. So its never going to happen.

So get behind it.

To answer, I'd say yes, Europe/UK could find 100,000 troops. Probably lean on Greece/Turkey/poland for the bodies, with Uk/Germany/france providing helicopters, engineers, fighter and air defence cover, and paying for the bodies.

Definitely a great negotiating tool, if Putin seriously believes it.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[Mike1976]

Definitely a great negotiating tool, if Putin seriously believes it.

The impossibility is obvious even to most of us, so that's not happening.