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When the russian invasion started, the regular bots stated on the very first day that the Ukrainians opposed no resistance and laid down their weapons in front of russian columns.
Personally I do not believe that the level of armament prior would have changed anything. Russians and their admirers thought Ukrainians would welcome them.
Maybe people's moods have nothing to do with it. All this can be fixed using the police, fsb, tv propaganda and repression. For a police state it doesn't matter. Mil-smile01
The main bet was that the Ukr government would be frightened by the tanks near Kiev. Ukr has already begun to agree on some points with Russia before the attack (from insiders). All factors were on the side of Rus victory, but everything went wrong...
 
The West isnt going to fold on this. Its not really about Ukraine, its about lying, breaking the unwritten rule of no conflict in Europe, the deal was, we buy gas, you play nice.

Zelensky is , as he has in the past, offered the olive branch. its good form, and helps to keep the waverers on board.

Until Russia actually wants a peace deal, its meaningless.

As this would take Putin to die, we have to wait. Even if Ukr pushes Russian forces out, at least to the 2014 lines, this still isnt peace.

Said earlier, Putin cant win, but he also cant be seen to lose, so we have this paralysis, which is rare in military actions.
The West isnt going to fold on this. Its not really about Ukraine, its about lying, breaking the unwritten rule of no conflict in Europe, the deal was, we buy gas, you play nice.

Zelensky is , as he has in the past, offered the olive branch. its good form, and helps to keep the waverers on board.

Until Russia actually wants a peace deal, its meaningless.

As this would take Putin to die, we have to wait. Even if Ukr pushes Russian forces out, at least to the 2014 lines, this still isnt peace.

Said earlier, Putin cant win, but he also cant be seen to lose, so we have this paralysis, which is rare in military actions.

That’s unlikely to be achieved.
Keep in mind, the ‘West’ is a broad term. The US and Europe can have different interest predicated on who is in office.

At the end of the day, people care about themselves; their own well-being. As such, this war does NOT affect the everyday American like it does the European…..certainly not security wise (unless we push Russia to use nukes).

Sending billions overseas and enacting sanctions during an economic downturn is politically unsustainable here; particularly coming off our ‘lessons learned’ disgraces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

As I said, we’re already seeing a noticeable backlash to Biden’s Ukraine policies. The isolationist, anti-NATO Trump faction of the GOP isn’t happy. And they always win out the end on the republican side.

And the Democrats are gonna get wrecked in the upcoming mid-terms. This does not bid well for Zelensky.
He is obviously keenly aware of this.
 
Seriously, there are precisely zero indications that such a thing was even possible. There is nothing in the Russian armed forces behaviour at ANY point during the beginning, middle or (presumably) end phases so far of this war that they have demonstrated any such ability to plan or implement such a thing.

A better supplied and trained Ukraine would frankly have mopped the floor against these bozos. A Ukraine with (for example) Patriot SAMs in a proper ADA setup would still have suffered somewhat from Russian SEAD/DEAD but there would be no debate on whether to supply them with replacement systems due to the need for training. Likewise the various other components that go into making a modern co-ordinated armed force. If anything, this (incompetent, inept and disastrous) attack represents an admission by Russia that it was "now or never", akin to that of Imperial Germany in 1914.
You are dicarding a few keys facts

The operation was rushed with very few middle leading ranks informed. In fact it seems that it was clearly a political decision that didn't put a lot (if not more than a couple) of military in the loop

The russian units were not engaged into their line/combat organization (combined arm BCT) but under their organic organization (mother divisions), lossing the combined arm force multiplier. Which puzzled a lot of analysts. Because it was a last minute political order

Combat assaults on Kiev and a few others positions (Karkyiv comes to mind) were made on the assumption that the ukrainian forces were as weak and as politicaly reliable as in 2014 which obviously was not the case

Now reverse the picture and think about how would have been the Russian operational plan if the UKA was already largely supplied with NATO advanced weapons and a larger NATO compatible formation.

It is possible (not guarantee, the politics have the end words but still) that the military would have had a better word to say on how to act

It is a what if but a plausible one
 
A TOS-1 hit by a Strugna-P:
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AND THE PHOTO OF THE DAY IS:
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"The video tells how the air defense units of the 95th separate assault brigade of the DShV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroy the means of the air attack of the Russian aggressor in the Izyum direction.

In particular, on this day, two Russian multi-purpose unmanned aerial vehicles "Orlan-10" were shot down by Stinger MANPADS calculations.

DShV - always first! Glory to Ukraine! ??????

Video: telegram channel of the Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine"

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Better delete it, it looks stupid. I watched this interview, an adequate guy from the DPR / LPR.
Let's get one thing straight.

In the 'East of Eden" - yes in the EU too - for most people dentistry - orthodontics is a luxury item, the statistics are appalling.
 
They have outflanked Ukraine with this, and the funniest thing is not a single western analytical source seen it coming.

Yes and no. Such eventualities were never ruled out to begin with. They have been a major concern from the outset. Even more dramatic and extensive disasters (Dniepr kessel) were prognosticated and alluded to by analysts, like for example Reisner. They never said it was impossible for Russia to score such wins. When Reisner for example points out apparent shifts in Russian kessel goals and lack of progress, he is not claiming someone was losing or winning, or ruling out potential Russian breakthroughs. They simply work with facts of the day, like the rest of us have to and present their own theories on how things could develop, based on those. On the other hand, I would agree, that many might have not expected a potential Russian breakthrough, this soon, or some even at all. But again, that is also highly speculative.
 
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You are dicarding a few keys facts

The operation was rushed with very few middle leading ranks informed. In fact it seems that it was clearly a political decision that didn't put a lot (if not more than a couple) of military in the loop

The russian units were not engaged into their line/combat organization (combined arm BCT) but under their organic organization (mother divisions), lossing the combined arm force multiplier. Which puzzled a lot of analysts. Because it was a last minute political order

Combat assaults on Kiev and a few others positions (Karkyiv comes to mind) were made on the assumption that the ukrainian forces were as weak and as politicaly reliable as in 2014 which obviously was not the case

Now reverse the picture and think about how would have been the Russian operational plan if the UKA was already largely supplied with NATO advanced weapons and a larger NATO compatible formation.

It is possible (not guarantee, the politics have the end words but still) that the military would have had a better word to say on how to act

It is a what if but a plausible one
If this were true, we would by week 5 have seen a massive improvement in Russian performance.

We didnt see this.

No amount of preparation, or notice, or anything else, would have improved the performance of this Army.

What you see is where they are at, which basically is slightly more than an armed rabble. Even 3 months later, we still see vehicles moving in daylight, under sight of Ukr missile operators. We see tanks and other vehicles alone. We see captured intact vehicles.

And even if you give ukr nato weapons on day one - what a fieldday for Russian propaganda - but this is your idea, not mine - and give Russians better planning, I think you still get a similar result, just with less territory captured by Russia, maybe less losses, but maybe not. Had those first russian attacks been destroyed, where would we now be?
 
Kadyrov being his ruthless self.

Recall it was the dudes in Mariupol who were trolling the Chechens and Islam by greasing their bullets with animal fat. Not the brightest decision in hindsight.


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If this were true, we would by week 5 have seen a massive improvement in Russian performance.

We didnt see this.

No amount of preparation, or notice, or anything else, would have improved the performance of this Army.

What you see is where they are at, which basically is slightly more than an armed rabble. Even 3 months later, we still see vehicles moving in daylight, under sight of Ukr missile operators. We see tanks and other vehicles alone. We see captured intact vehicles.

And even if you give ukr nato weapons on day one - what a fieldday for Russian propaganda - but this is your idea, not mine - and give Russians better planning, I think you still get a similar result, just with less territory captured by Russia, maybe less losses, but maybe not. Had those first russian attacks been destroyed, where would we now be?
We can colour the parrot what the Russians would have done then, jajajajajajajajaja...
I'll tell you: they'd have beaten the drum of battle, that they'd have subjugated everyone.

Their logistics, training, etc would have remained just as shitty.

Except that the 'Kiev convoy' wouldn't have been attacked by a few Bayraktars, but by, say, three MLRS batteries with cluster warheads. undsoweiter, and their strategists who prepared the 'we'll take it in three days' war plan' would have been aware of that....
 
"For two years he played at the Mariupol Drama Theater, the same one that was destroyed by air strikes by the occupiers. He gave another 17 years to the theater. Lesya Ukrainka in Kyiv. You could also see him in various TV series and movies. But now he is the commander of an infantry platoon in the hottest areas of the theater of operations in Ukraine. Even this interview had to be recorded under artillery fire. Become a sponsor of this channel - https: //www.youtube.com/channel/UCg7T ...

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