Warfare HAMAS attack on Israel, Oct 2023 & Iran’s Proxies.

[Ivan le Fou]

Do we know where these missiles landed anyway?

 

[IDF_TANKER]

Do we know where these missiles landed anyway?

Mostly open areas so far it seems. Some debris fell inside cities causing minor damage.

Any real damage to the sensitive facilities is going to be muted for a while by the military sensor, so we might not find out until much later. But there is no rumors, which makes me think there is not much of it either. Only two people were wounded, so.

There was a brief large flare in the area of the gas rig, but that's it. So even if they succeeded to hit it, no catastrophic damage there either.

The logic of all of it seems to replicate the logic of the previous attack - maximum fireworks, hoping to hit a quality target, but no mass casualties. To create optics for all the bystanders and maintaining some sort of deterrence equation with Israel. Desperate, stupid and ultimately counterproductive.

 

[Mike1976]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

First, the damage from a single missile seems underwhelming. I can imagine even all of the 200 missiles landed in the middle of Tel Aviv the damage would be serious, but not catastrophic.
Second, horrible accuracy. If what this guy is saying is true (I actually don't know where Mossad HQ is), this is huge frigging miss.
A question to our local experts here - what kind of navigation those missiles have? Some sort of GPS?

500m from the Mossad HQ if initial OSINT is accurate.

GPS and INS (also maybe GLONASS, but I doubt it)

Inertial navigation system - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

These missiles should have been more accurate than what we saw whether with GPS (~10M) or INS (about 100m IIRC) if these missiles were indeed modern tech and manufactured to standards. For a nuclear ICBM a CEP that big is irrelevant, but not for conventional explosives.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Well fortunately @maridonious posted pictures on a NATO run website, showing their secret bunker full of missiles.

Iran’s Missiles: Military Strategy

Assaf Orion is a senior research fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and director of the Israel-China research program. He is also an international fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Orion, a retired brigadier general, was responsible for strategic...

iranprimer.usip.org

 

[IDF_TANKER]

I've been wondering during the last days how Israeli attack on Iran will look like. Lets speculate.
Bunch of premises to build on:
1. Long term strategic goals - severely compromising nuclear program (unrealistic to destroy completely) and weakening the regime at least enough to make it disengage from the Israel geopolitical arena at least for the near future.
2. Must be devastating enough to prevent short/mid-term retaliation against Israel and broader coalition (moderate Arabs and US assets).
3. Time frame is very limited - US election is a deadline. I wouldn't be surprised if IL gov. decides October 7th would be a good day for this - the sheer symbolic meaning of this will have an awesome resonance.

How:
1. Overwhelming cyber + kinetic attack against means of communications for the whole country. I mean a complete blackout - no internet, no landlines, no cellular, no TV, no radio, nothing at all. Think Hezbollah beeper + later comms attacks x 1000.
2. Kinetic attack against key energy and nuclear facilities.
3. Decapitating the IRGC Hezbollah style - they are also in charge of the missile force.
4. Blocking sea and airports either via kinetic and cyber means.
5. Aggressive posturing by US and allies to prevent any thought of retaliation.

If the goal includes also complete collapse of the regime (admittedly, overtly optimistic scenario):
5. Wiping out the banking system and all the gov. electronic records (or at least preventing access to) - complete civil chaos.
6. Decapitating the regime itself in addition to IRGC top brass, including the ayatollahs. Not military though, which might play later a role in the regime change (the crown prince already made calls to the military, which I found interesting).
7. Simultaneous attack by the sleeper cells in Tehran to capture the centers of power, and mass rebellion in the anti-regime provinces (the Kurds, Baluchis, Arabs, Azeris etc).

Thoughts?

 

[Vorph]

IDF says troops in south Lebanon engaged in close-quarters combat with Hezbollah operatives

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

IDF says troops in south Lebanon engaged in close-quarters combat with Hezbollah operatives

The IDF releases new footage of the 98th Division operating in southern Lebanon, since launching a ground operation there on Monday night.

The military says the division has been engaged in close-quarters combat with Hezbollah operatives, as well as directing airstrikes on gunmen and the terror group’s positions.

In one recent operation, the division’s Egoz commando unit destroyed a Hezbollah position, including a rocket launcher and a cache of explosives, according to the IDF.

More than 150 Hezbollah sites have been hit by the Israeli Air Force amid the operations, the military adds.

In a statement, Hezbollah says its fighters are clashing with Israeli forces entering the border town of Maroun Al-Ras.

Hezbollah claimed they repelled other soldiers earlier on...

 

[Ivan le Fou]

I've been wondering during the last days how Israeli attack on Iran will look like. Lets speculate.
Bunch of premises to build on:
1. Long term strategic goals - severely compromising nuclear program (unrealistic to destroy completely) and weakening the regime at least enough to make it disengage from the Israel geopolitical arena at least for the near future.
2. Must be devastating enough to prevent short/mid-term retaliation against Israel and broader coalition (moderate Arabs and US assets).
3. Time frame is very limited - US election is a deadline. I wouldn't be surprised if IL gov. decides October 7th would be a good day for this - the sheer symbolic meaning of this will have an awesome resonance.

How:
1. Overwhelming cyber + kinetic attack against means of communications for the whole country. I mean a complete blackout - no internet, no landlines, no cellular, no TV, no radio, nothing at all. Think Hezbollah beeper + later comms attacks x 1000.
2. Kinetic attack against key energy and nuclear facilities.
3. Decapitating the IRGC Hezbollah style - they are also in charge of the missile force.
4. Blocking sea and airports either via kinetic and cyber means.
5. Aggressive posturing by US and allies to prevent any thought of retaliation.

If the goal includes also complete collapse of the regime (admittedly, overtly optimistic scenario):
5. Wiping out the banking system and all the gov. electronic records (or at least preventing access to) - complete civil chaos.
6. Decapitating the regime itself in addition to IRGC top brass, including the ayatollahs. Not military though, which might play later a role in the regime change (the crown prince already made calls to the military, which I found interesting).
7. Simultaneous attack by the sleeper cells in Tehran to capture the centers of power, and mass rebellion in the anti-regime provinces (the Kurds, Baluchis, Arabs, Azeris etc).

Thoughts?

It should be, mostly, focused on the regime, imho.
There are frequent protests from a significant part of the population. The opposition is real and not merely an loosely organized underground movement, neither are they some crazy and unpredictable guerilla gunmen.
They have to be taken into account and have to be implemented in any plan to go from the current regime to a friendlier one. The numerous mistakes we made in the Middle East have to be taken into account.

It might not be necessary to go after the nuclear program, sure the country can do perfectly fine without nuclear energy, but it would also be a huge step towards modernity on the long term.

Same goes with terrorizing the population by hitting infrastructures civilians rely on. It should be avoided if necessary.
Same for the banking system. Though civil chaos can be useful, it can also backfire dramatically and create unforeseeable and uncontrollable consequences; like unnecessary civilian casualties, creation of criminal groups, opportunistic insertion by foreign terrorist organizations, etc...

Going after IRGC infrastructures though? Oh yeah, 100%.
Infrastructures, regime, cells, etc... go nuts!

 

[Vorph]

Israel said mulling attacks on Iran oil rigs, nuclear sites in response to missile attack

Cabinet said resolved to respond militarily, but has not decided how; officials also weighing targeted assassinations, attacks on air defenses; response to be coordinated with US

www.timesofisrael.com

Cabinet said resolved to respond militarily, but has not decided how; officials also weighing targeted assassinations, attacks on air defenses; response to be coordinated with US

Israel may respond to Iran’s major Tuesday ballistic missile attack by striking strategic infrastructure, such as gas or oil rigs, or by directly targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, media reports said on Wednesday, citing Israeli officials.

Targeted assassinations and attacks on Iran’s air defense systems are also possible responses, Axios reported.

An attack on Iranian oil facilities could devastate the country’s economy, and any of the considered responses could mark another escalation, almost one year into the ongoing war that began when the Hamas terror group attacked Israel in October 2023.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was expected to convene a meeting on Wednesday to discuss potential responses to the attack, which consisted of some 181 ballistic missiles fired directly at Israel from Iran, almost all of which were intercepted as Israelis nationwide huddled in bomb shelters.

The discussion comes after another hours-long meeting of the security cabinet in a bunker underneath Jerusalem Tuesday night. That meeting ended with the understanding that Israel would respond to the attack militarily, but without clarity as to how it would do so, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed Israeli officials.

@IDF_TANKER October 7th would be the perfect day for such an operation, only five days from now...

 

[Vorph]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

So much for the Hezzie and Pally bots screeching about "50 destroyed F-35s", hah.

 

[Picanha]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

First, the damage from a single missile seems underwhelming. I can imagine even all of the 200 missiles landed in the middle of Tel Aviv the damage would be serious, but not catastrophic.
Second, horrible accuracy. If what this guy is saying is true (I actually don't know where Mossad HQ is), this is huge frigging miss.
A question to our local experts here - what kind of navigation those missiles have? Some sort of GPS?

Like Mike mentioned INS and Glonass and probably of bad quality because of sanctions etc.

Then all subsystems must also work very well together. And not toforget build quality and precision.

I found this company for example offering INS and more.

https://www.sbg-systems.com/

This type was apparently fired on Israel in its latest attack by Iran.

Iran's 'Khaybar Shekan': The missile used by Tehran to attack in Syria

Iran showcased its Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile on Wednesday in an event in Tehran near the Azadi Sports Complex, Iranian pro-government media reported. The missile is now the pride of Tehran because...

www.fdd.org

Other types used

He said three solid-propellent missiles fired on Tuesday could be the 'Haj Qasem', 'Kheibar Shekan' and 'Fattah 1'. Liquid propellant missiles reported as being launched from Isfahan might potentially be the 'Emad', 'Badr' and 'Khorramshahr', he said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-hardline-rulers-see-missile-systems-vital-deterrent-2023-06-06/

 

[m208]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Fluff]

It should be, mostly, focused on the regime, imho.
There are frequent protests from a significant part of the population. The opposition is real and not merely an loosely organized underground movement, neither are they some crazy and unpredictable guerilla gunmen.
They have to be taken into account and have to be implemented in any plan to go from the current regime to a friendlier one. The numerous mistakes we made in the Middle East have to be taken into account.

It might not be necessary to go after the nuclear program, sure the country can do perfectly fine without nuclear energy, but it would also be a huge step towards modernity on the long term.

Same goes with terrorizing the population by hitting infrastructures civilians rely on. It should be avoided if necessary.
Same for the banking system. Though civil chaos can be useful, it can also backfire dramatically and create unforeseeable and uncontrollable consequences; like unnecessary civilian casualties, creation of criminal groups, opportunistic insertion by foreign terrorist organizations, etc...

Going after IRGC infrastructures though? Oh yeah, 100%.
Infrastructures, regime, cells, etc... go nuts!

Government, military, state police etc. all legitimate targets.

I assume Israel has been planning this for decades, so I’m hoping for some nice surprises. I would hit nuke weapons development sites. Iran needs to learn to mind its own business.

 

[m208]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Government, military, state police etc. all legitimate targets.

I assume Israel has been planning this for decades, so I’m hoping for some nice surprises. I would hit nuke weapons development sites. Iran needs to learn to mind its own business.

Everything related to the regime, especially the military, is fine in my book.

But the sensitive thing would be to not alienate the civilian population that does not hate Israel.

Removing the Ayatollahs is one thing, but it would be pointless to have them removed just so they can be replaced by something similar or worse.

 

[Fluff]

Everything related to the regime, especially the military, is fine in my book.

But the sensitive thing would be to not alienate the civilian population that does not hate Israel.

Removing the Ayatollahs is one thing, but it would be pointless to have them removed just so they can be replaced by something similar or worse.

Given bibi’s speech, and the number of available targets, it will be regime and mil targets. I’d be surprised if Israel hits oil sites.

 

[BeNder]

 

[BeNder]

Heating up. Interesting to see the Israeli response.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Given bibi’s speech, and the number of available targets, it will be regime and mil targets. I’d be surprised if Israel hits oil sites.

The launch sites are probably on the list, I suppose.
Operatives as well, though they likely are in hiding at the moment.

Oil sites wouldn't make much sense though. At least in term of response, that would look rather weak and "lame".

 

[m208]

Given bibi’s speech, and the number of available targets, it will be regime and mil targets. I’d be surprised if Israel hits oil sites.

Netanyahu is going to strike at the core of Tehran proly focusing on uav and naval bases. Anyone who doubts otherwise is mistaken. He wants to make it clear to the world that if you mess with Israel, there are serious consequences.

The only remaining question is where the Israeli missiles will be launched from.

 

[Fluff]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies