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Warfare Russia/Ukraine War
- Thread starter morris
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Not quite right. The October polls showed a relative majority willing to negotiate, but almost 80% unwilling to cede territories and some two thirds willing to fight as long as necessary.
Moreover, throughout fall reports came from Ukraine that soldiers, veterans and their families are quite opposed to making concessions. It's clear to me that the Kremlin tries to plunge Ukraine into internal chaos, maybe even civil war.
Zelensky should hold a referendum on a potential deal.
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There won't be any cessation of hostilities until a deal has been agreed upon because it's not in russia's interest as long as they have the momentum and before that a referendum is out of the question, similarly to any elections. Drawing the population to predetermined locations will lead to mass casualties.
The government would need to make a decision based on what they think the population would support based on polling.
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Very right and it’s even worse.
October was October, but we have the third decade of November now and the opinion has changed drastically in the last couple of weeks.
That’s what I heard a Polish analyst saying yesterday.
Google is our friend, so:
Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War
Ukrainians are growing increasingly weary of the war with Russia. Gallup's latest surveys of Ukraine show 52% would like to see the war end as soon as possible.
news.gallup.com
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There’s no truce with RuZZia.
Remember what happened after the peace treaty in Minsk in 2015.
After peace was negotiated and hostilities stopped, the Orcs launched an offensive to take Debaltseve.
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On the practical level, ukr would be ‘giving’ Russia, land, destroyed towns, laced with minefields. Very few people, no assets, no working businesses, destroyed bridges etc.
Putin doesn’t have time to re-arm and go again in the baltics.
If ukr agrees to a truce, then it hasn’t given away those territories, plus it has the Kursk land to trade for something.
Maybe Elon can put a deal together.
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The key mineral is lithium that is necessary for batteries in electric cars. The Orcs know demand for oil will be decreasing due to many countries going green.
They need to rework their business model.
Ukraine: all lithium reserves and mineral resources in war zones
In the ancient rocks of Ukraine are hidden lithium deposits with great potential. Findings that have been identified mainly around the area of Mariupol, the port city of Donbass torn apart by Russian bombing
www.renewablematter.eu
Speaking of Kursk, the Orcs won't trade it for anything.
When the hostilities stop, they will do what they did at Debaltseve.
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if that was true Ukraine probably wouldn't have a problem generating new troops.
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First things first: 63% of Ukrainians ready to endure the war as long as necessary, survey shows
This was just a few weeks ago. Many more where this has come from.
The polls depict a remarkable coexistence of seemingly conflicting views.
For example, whilst high numbers of Ukrainians support continuing the war, more than 50% also think that draft-dodgers should not be punished. One would think that you can't have it both ways, right? If you're for the war–if you think it's necessary to continue resisting Russia– shouldn't you have unsympathetic views towards men refusing to do their part?
Another recurring theme in the polls is that the people of Western and Southern Ukraine are more opposed to the war than the ones living closer to the frontlines. That's also quite interesting if you think about it. Counter-intuitive even: If you assume the Ukrainians are war-weary, shouldn't the people from Zaporizhzhia be more fed up than the inhabitants of Lviv which hasn't seen much of the war?
I'd suggest what's happening here is not so much growing war-weariness in general but rather a political rift opening inside Ukraine concerning what exactly they're fighting for.
Renewed nationalism has gained momentum in the western half of Ukraine, with radical elements even in parliament openly advocating for the discrimination of Russian-speaking soldiers in the army. Imagine that, they're at war, need boots on the ground yet still they're willing to antagonise many thousands of troops. But the use of the Russian language has seen a sharp decline even amongst Russo-Ukrainians anyway.
It seems to me a narrative has gained ground in Ukraine that the entire nation endures this war mostly for the benefit of some Russo-Ukrainians who secretly might prefer living under Russian rule anyway. That's the problem.
Selensky's government was mistaken not to formulate a simple, clear objective early on in the war; that's what's led to this growing uneasiness amongst the populace. I understand why they didn't do it, the polls showed it was exactly what the people wanted them to do.
But a mistake it was nevertheless. They should've decided right away that Ukraine seeks to return "only" to the status quo ante 2022. They wasted time and ressources not focusing on their best shot.
Besides, Ukraine's recruitment woes aren't what they seem. They've been able to recruit more and more soldiers on a voluntary basis – but at the same time, they now have to drag conscripts out of night clubs. What gives? Well, I've frequently posted content from Roman Ponomarenko, a military historian and active-duty officer of the Azov Brigade. (Use a translator, his posts are well worth the read.)
Ponomarenko has commented a couple of times on the discrepancy in morale between conscripts and volunteer troops and even advocated suspending conscription in favour of intensifying volunteer recruitment, suggesting it would benefit the war effort.
He blames the fact that more and more conscripts refuse to fight not on the war itself, but on systemic injustices surrounding Ukraine's draft: Much like in America during the Vietnam War, men from rich families use money and influence to avoid having to serve. And then there's the age cap, with only those aged 25 or above having to serve on the front lines.
According to Ponomarenko, that's what's ruining morale. The conscripts feel unfairly treated.
This was just a few weeks ago. Many more where this has come from.
Incorrect. Take the phrasing above, for example: ready to endure. Notice something? It doesn't say "ready to fight".
The polls depict a remarkable coexistence of seemingly conflicting views.
For example, whilst high numbers of Ukrainians support continuing the war, more than 50% also think that draft-dodgers should not be punished. One would think that you can't have it both ways, right? If you're for the war–if you think it's necessary to continue resisting Russia– shouldn't you have unsympathetic views towards men refusing to do their part?
Another recurring theme in the polls is that the people of Western and Southern Ukraine are more opposed to the war than the ones living closer to the frontlines. That's also quite interesting if you think about it. Counter-intuitive even: If you assume the Ukrainians are war-weary, shouldn't the people from Zaporizhzhia be more fed up than the inhabitants of Lviv which hasn't seen much of the war?
I'd suggest what's happening here is not so much growing war-weariness in general but rather a political rift opening inside Ukraine concerning what exactly they're fighting for.
Renewed nationalism has gained momentum in the western half of Ukraine, with radical elements even in parliament openly advocating for the discrimination of Russian-speaking soldiers in the army. Imagine that, they're at war, need boots on the ground yet still they're willing to antagonise many thousands of troops. But the use of the Russian language has seen a sharp decline even amongst Russo-Ukrainians anyway.
It seems to me a narrative has gained ground in Ukraine that the entire nation endures this war mostly for the benefit of some Russo-Ukrainians who secretly might prefer living under Russian rule anyway. That's the problem.
Selensky's government was mistaken not to formulate a simple, clear objective early on in the war; that's what's led to this growing uneasiness amongst the populace. I understand why they didn't do it, the polls showed it was exactly what the people wanted them to do.
But a mistake it was nevertheless. They should've decided right away that Ukraine seeks to return "only" to the status quo ante 2022. They wasted time and ressources not focusing on their best shot.
Besides, Ukraine's recruitment woes aren't what they seem. They've been able to recruit more and more soldiers on a voluntary basis – but at the same time, they now have to drag conscripts out of night clubs. What gives? Well, I've frequently posted content from Roman Ponomarenko, a military historian and active-duty officer of the Azov Brigade. (Use a translator, his posts are well worth the read.)
Ponomarenko has commented a couple of times on the discrepancy in morale between conscripts and volunteer troops and even advocated suspending conscription in favour of intensifying volunteer recruitment, suggesting it would benefit the war effort.
He blames the fact that more and more conscripts refuse to fight not on the war itself, but on systemic injustices surrounding Ukraine's draft: Much like in America during the Vietnam War, men from rich families use money and influence to avoid having to serve. And then there's the age cap, with only those aged 25 or above having to serve on the front lines.
According to Ponomarenko, that's what's ruining morale. The conscripts feel unfairly treated.
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Lots of factors going in, but even in presvious wars there will always be those who see going to war as just a side quest and the rest just wanting to go their merry lives. The rift between those closer to the war and those far from it is an example of that. Those whose lives arent disturbed are less likely to want the war ton continue as for them its just a trivial thing.
Example, the military recruitment for the Philippine Army in the Northern part and around the capital doesnt have a 1 day waiting line like it does in the more "conflict ridden" parts down south... same for the Military support.
Also when it comes to surveys, how the question is asked makes a big impact on how the results would be.
As for name calling Zelensky, well I want to see your countries leaders perform under the same odds as Ukraine faced and currently facing.
Example, the military recruitment for the Philippine Army in the Northern part and around the capital doesnt have a 1 day waiting line like it does in the more "conflict ridden" parts down south... same for the Military support.
Also when it comes to surveys, how the question is asked makes a big impact on how the results would be.
As for name calling Zelensky, well I want to see your countries leaders perform under the same odds as Ukraine faced and currently facing.
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Whatever the negotiations with ukraine are, ceding territory will mean giving the Kremlin's terrorist regime more time to take over all of Ukraine as they originally wanted, even if that means 10-15 years to rearm and prepare.
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I can confirm that from personal experiences.
Its the same in Russia though. Any cleptocracy kids in the Russian army in Ukraine?
But thats not of their interest better to give Ukraine powerful weapons so they can adjust their drafting while diminishing Russias limited pool of idiots willing to die for Putlers dreams or 70000 €s.
These morons don't know that there are other ways to thrive.
One would have been not attacking your neighbour and trying to decapitate the government as a quick reminder for Razzia peaceniks.
Sad and wasteful times which the instigator will eventually regret having created them.
Its not going away anytime soon. So every concession towards Putler is futile and only helps him.
Anyway I feel sad and understand the problems of going to a superimposed war created by small man complex and other psychic disorders.
Autocratic regimes are nothing but an amalgamation of socipaths and psychopaths telling the normal people they are the evil and projecting their faults onto them to discredit any opposition.
Very dangerous figures and I command everyone putting their lives at risk defending the free world from these types.
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My take on Russia's changed nuclear doctrine:
Another game play by one knowing he is not able to stand up to his claims.
Why add ambiguity to nuclear deterrents?
Either you deter or not.
Simple fact. You can not deter stuff you instigated on your own. You have to swallow it.
To avoid that he plays the little gangster game which worked so well with Merkel for example.
Merkel btw is still not aware of any mistakes whatsoever just for perspective she wrote a whole book to absolute herself.
Everyone falling for this should question why they are in politics and not teaching toddlers.
Another game play by one knowing he is not able to stand up to his claims.
Why add ambiguity to nuclear deterrents?
Either you deter or not.
Simple fact. You can not deter stuff you instigated on your own. You have to swallow it.
To avoid that he plays the little gangster game which worked so well with Merkel for example.
Merkel btw is still not aware of any mistakes whatsoever just for perspective she wrote a whole book to absolute herself.
Everyone falling for this should question why they are in politics and not teaching toddlers.
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