Politics Tariffs/Trade Wars

I don't think Trump is going to wait for China. Not his style. Somehow I think he is going to go "Frag out" in some other direction.

Not saying that is wise, just in character.

Maybe try to cut some quick deals with Vietnam, Thailand, etc? Even if only to appear to be winning.
The deals are happening it seems, as fast a possible, without China. China will also come around. Tonight's (for us) defense of the Yuan will be interesting. I won't stay up as late as I did last night though.
 
I actually find it fascinating! :)
I wondered if this meme was true
GnjtHXiXAAEfzXi.webp
 
This is amazing.


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Maybe, you did explain the reasoning for these moves (from your perspective) on the other thread. Thanks for that.
But please dont mess up your bond market. Pretty please
Bessent, who I consider to be something of a genius, recently said the he is a glorified bonds salesman. I think he has it handled.

Would have been good if the Fed acted, but they didn't.
 
I'm not enjoying this sort of turmoil, TBH.

Honestly, I'd like to think that smarter people than me know why this has to happen, but it sure give the TDS crowd fuel for their bonfires.
To be fair, under the normal diplomatic system, trump would have been lucky if eu or China had defined their negotiating position, and team, by year 3. In other words, they would try to time him out, whilst being as polite as possible. Such is international business.

As to investment values, a thick skin is required.
 
To be fair, under the normal diplomatic system, trump would have been lucky if eu or China had defined their negotiating position, and team, by year 3. In other words, they would try to time him out, whilst being as polite as possible. Such is international business.

As to investment values, a thick skin is required.
Exactly right. Basically nothing would have happened.

What happened today?


Record stock market gains.
The US is taking in $2 billion per day on tariffs.
75-ish countries are waiting in line to negotiate a trade deal.
China is isolated.

Tonight I'll watch the BOC fight to keep the Yuan below 8 per USD.

Good times!! Exactly what I voted for!
 
Honestly I don't want China to hurt. Just a course correction.
 
Honestly I don't want China to hurt. Just a course correction.
No one wants anyone hurt.

China now had a massive middle class, and the industry to service them. Just as trump is pushing a USA first agenda, China does the same. Tbh isn’t this common sense/ inevitable?

In business most people want to buy close to home, established, and easy to communicate with. Previously we have ignored this, to buy the cheapest product, then wondering why we now had to pay benefits for our unemployed.

Which is better, plastic patio chair for 20, plus 20 delivery, plus you pay 40 tax to pay unemployed.

Or you pay 80 for the chair, made in your region? So your dumb but honest neighbour now has a minimum wage job?
 
Alibaba gets discount postage cost as a developing country under the free trade idealism. This really encapsulates the real ethos behind it as rediculous as it's the biggest economy? Aliexpress and the rest would vanish if it paid real air freight and also very odd how the carbon people never have a worry about the millions of tonnes of individual items going by air. An inefficient system yet its enabled by the globalists.
Am really suprised Trump has not considered it.
Also there is no doubt products on there are getting merchantile subsidized.
 
Honestly I don't want China to hurt. Just a course correction.
I don't mind if they hurt, but I really don't want China to collapse, which is a very real possibility. Too much chaos. But the economy needs to rebalance.
 
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I don't think Trump is going to wait for China. Not his style. Somehow I think he is going to go "Frag out" in some other direction.

Not saying that is wise, just in character.

Maybe try to cut some quick deals with Vietnam, Thailand, etc? Even if only to appear to be winning.
That's the thing, wasnt the reason why Thialand and specially Vietnam hammered, because they are another route for China to circumvent trade with the US? And now they paused it for everyone, so all that means nothing. So basically, the Chinese goods will go as normal while American exports to China gets hit.

The US blinked, we will now see what China does.
 
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That's the thing, wasnt the reason why Thialand and specially Vietnam hammered, because they are another route for China to circumvent trade with the US? And now they paused it for everyone, so all that means nothing. So basically, the Chinese goods will go as normal while American exports to China gets hit.

The US blinked, we will now see what China does.

There is a whole nother thing coming regarding transhipping and De Minimis which takes affect April 17th. Nobody is talking about it oddly. The rules change predates Trump, so I guess it doesn't merit comment. However this is one of the puzzle pieces.

I think exporters in Thailand and Vietnam (and others) are now highly motivated not to evade the new rules.

Chinese exporters are in chaos right now.
 
There is a whole nother thing coming regarding transhipping and De Minimis which takes affect April 17th. Nobody is talking about it oddly. The rules change predates Trump, so I guess it doesn't merit comment. However this is one of the puzzle pieces.

I think exporters in Thailand and Vietnam (and others) are now highly motivated not to evade the new rules.

Chinese exporters are in chaos right now.
That only works if hopefully that was the lesson learned, instead of, the American admin right now cant make a decision that last more than a week.
 
That only works if hopefully that was the lesson learned, instead of, the American admin right now cant make a decision that last more than a week.
Well, I dunno. But the transhipping/De Minimis changes have been coming for like a year?

I actually think the lesson learned is that the markets are fine. Even with a 125% tariff still landing on China.

And everybody else has 90 days to cut a deal. As somebody else pointed out, running out the clock on Trump isn't going to work.
 
Well, I dunno. But the transhipping/De Minimis changes have been coming for like a year?

I actually think the lesson learned is that the markets are fine. Even with a 125% tariff still landing on China.

And everybody else has 90 days to cut a deal. As somebody else pointed out, running out the clock on Trump isn't going to work.
Yeah, this is the only way this could happen. Trump isn't Emperor for life. He has maybe 2 years to reorder global trade. So far, it's worked out great. Think about it. Trump/Bessent/et. al, got the stock market to not only accept 10% across the board tariffs with 125% on China, (so far), but accept them as a saving grace.
 

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