There is a chance that things will not continue in a rational way. Putin can only win this war militarily, politically he has already lost it. If there are few Ukrainian dead, he will not take the cities. If there are many dead, the hatred of Ukrainians against the Putin regime will multiply. Even between 1941-1945 it was not possible to maintain occupation in Ukraine, only along the main roads, in the larger settlements (basically during the day) and in places with garrison. I wonder with whom Putin will want to pacify the 600,000 square kilometre country? After 1956, it took a year and a half in Hungary before compulsory Russian education could be reintroduced in schools, even though the country had been beaten and murdered for eight years before that. It is worth considering Putin's offer to the Ukrainians: be a helpless impotent buffer state. Well, it will be difficult to accept this offer without putting prisons, concentration camps and the like next to the people concerned. Let's say like China's "solution" to the Uyghur question. In this case, the role would have to be played by people who understand the language, who come from a very similar cultural background, i.e. Russian soldiers who want it in the middle of their backs and who do not have the resources to do it. Or to local collaborators who have not even dared to show their faces - and it would have been appropriate to introduce the new Ukrainian puppet government to the 'peacekeepers'. The signs that we have seen so far clearly indicate that even the leaders of local governments are not talking to the occupiers.
In a few days, Kiev could become Aleppo. Just a reminder: Putin has deliberately 'harassed' millions of innocent civilians in order to dump them as refugees on Europe and plunge the EU into crisis. He is not too far away from doing the same to Kiev or Kharkov, not quite for the same reason this time. No doubt, if he makes that decision, the response will not be lacking, not from the world (I have no illusions here) but from the Ukrainians who are still alive and who will not swallow it in the short, medium or long term. Putin, on the other hand, may think that he can escape from the stalemate by pressing that particular button. He will also, sooner or later, have to face the possibility of being shot dead by one of his own people for fear of pressing that button. Lord God have mercy on us.
It is worth reading what Harari wrote, I will copy it. Although I fear he is too optimistic, as he does not foresee the possibility of the button being pressed.
It now looks very much, Harari goes on, as if Putin's gamble is failing: the Ukrainian people are resisting wholeheartedly, winning the admiration of the whole world - and winning the war.
"There are many dark days ahead. The Russians can still conquer all of Ukraine. But to win the war, the Russians would have to hold Ukraine, and they can only do that if the Ukrainian people let them. That looks increasingly unlikely."
Hate is the ugliest emotion, writes Harari, who says that's why Putin wanted to move quickly and quietly through Ukraine, because now "every Ukrainian killed increases the hatred of Ukrainians." Because hatred is also a hidden treasure that can sustain resistance for generations. By forcing Putin to engage in bloody fighting, it is almost certain that his dream will never come true.
"The Russian Empire's death certificate will not bear the name of Mikhail Gorbachev, but that of Vladimir Putin. Gorbachev made Russians and Ukrainians feel like brothers; Putin made them enemies and ensured that the Ukrainian nation would henceforth define itself against Russia."
According to Harari, stories of Ukrainian courage can inspire not only Ukrainians, but the entire world: the governments of European nations, the US government, and even the oppressed citizens of Russia.
"If the Ukrainians dare to stop a tank with their bare hands, the German government can dare to supply them with anti-tank missiles, the US government can dare to cut Russia off from SWIFT, and Russian citizens can dare to demonstrate their opposition to this senseless war."
