Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Chazman]

USA doesn't supply support unless it favors them. Trump is proud of not getting into wars and the current situation is the proof. Further it would be stretching Nato while Russia is still a beligerant. Explain what tactic US would use to break a blockade on its own.

Lots to unpack here.

If China thought they could take Taiwan quickly and painlessly, they already would have. It will be neither painless nor quick.

The US, Japan, ROK, Australia and maybe Philippines will do the heavy lifting. I'm not sure NATO support is even part of the calculus, although I can see UK and France sending token help as a sign of support.

You know that old saying, "those who live in glass houses"? A Chinese blockade of Taiwan fits that saying. Look up Strait of Malacca. China gets 60-80% of it's food and oil through there. Very narrow and easy to blockade. The Chinese have been working with Myanmar and Pakistan to use their ports for oil delivery and supply to China via pipelines. Those facilities, if ever completed, would be destroyed in the first hours.

Beyond that, the waters around Taiwan would become a hellscape for the Chinese Navy.

Not to mention China's export economy, which would be shut down immediately.

 

[primer]

Trumps doctrine is no wars particularly unwinnable ones and the war gameing according to defense secretary Hegseth is a loss

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Response time from US will lag looking at the reaction time for Ukraine and therefor slower for a war wary unless its a rable Trump.
You selected the war button immediatly. Surprising given the adept diplomatic skills you attribute to Trump.

The Gaza all hell to break lose by Friday has also expired.

 

[Chazman]

Trumps doctrine is no wars partucularly unwinnable ones and the war gameing according to defense secretary Hegseth is a loss

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Response time from US will lag looking at the reaction time for Ukraine and therefor slower for a war wary unless its a rable Trump.
You selected the war button immediatly. Surprising given the adapt diplomatic skills you attribute to Trump.

I've seen all that. Also, Hegseth is now in charge.

I guess we're all fvcked then, especially where you live.

 

[primer]

Labour seems almost supportive of China, current lot can't even supply a hot lunch to a school. We will send a strongly worded tweet.

Trumps foreign interest is skin deep unless its Isreal. Only interest is the chips in Taiwan. Not really ww3 stuff

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[primer]

US President Donald Trump suggested to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a call that the US take ownership of Ukrainian power plants to ensure the critical facilities' security. Trump told Zelenskyy that the US could be “very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise," according to a White House statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz. Trump added that “American ownership of those plants could be the best protection for that infrastructure.”

Odessa?

 

[Chazman]

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[Connaught Ranger]

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[Connaught Ranger]

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[Chazman]

Labour seems almost supportive of China, current lot can't even supply a hot lunch to a school. We will send a strongly worded tweet.

Trumps foreign interest is skin deep unless its Isreal. Only interest is the chips in Taiwan. Not really ww3 stuff

The interest in the ME is to finally end the Arab-Israeli war, which has gone on since 1948. End it and lets move on. Saudi Arabia will play a large part there, especially regarding Gaza and the Palestinians.

As far as China, it's more than just Taiwanese chips. If the US were to fail, there would be chaos in the region.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[thelistener]

Trumps doctrine is no wars particularly unwinnable ones and the war gameing according to defense secretary Hegseth is a loss

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Response time from US will lag looking at the reaction time for Ukraine and therefor slower for a war wary unless its a rable Trump.
You selected the war button immediatly. Surprising given the adept diplomatic skills you attribute to Trump.

The Gaza all hell to break lose by Friday has also expired.

Sorry for offtopic, but on this topic. This was an interesting read

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.

www.csis.org

 

[primer]

The interest in the ME is to finally end the Arab-Israeli war, which has gone on since 1948. End it and lets move on. Saudi Arabia will play a large part there, especially regarding Gaza and the Palestinians.

As far as China, it's more than just Taiwanese chips. If the US were to fail, there would be chaos in the region.

Realism rules the day

 

[Chazman]

Sorry for offtopic, but on this topic. This was an interesting read

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.

www.csis.org

It's an interesting topic. Maybe worthy of it's own thread.

 

[Chazman]

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[Chazman]

For your viewing pleasure....




“I rarely agree with President Trump, but his latest controversial statements about Ukraine are mostly true. They only seem preposterous because western audiences have been fed a steady diet of disinformation about Ukraine for more than a decade. It is time to set the record straight on three key points that illuminate why Ukrainians and former President Joe Biden — not merely Russian President Vladimir Putin — bear significant responsibility for the outbreak and perpetuation of war in Ukraine.“First, as recently documented by overwhelming forensic evidence, and affirmed even by a Kyiv court, it was Ukrainian right-wing militants who started the violence in 2014 that provoked Russia’s initial invasion of the country’s southeast including Crimea. …“Second, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky contributed to a wider war by violating peace deals with Russia [known as Minsk 1 and 2] and seeking NATO military aid and membership. …“Third, Joe Biden too contributed crucially to the escalation and perpetuation of fighting. … Biden raised false hopes in Ukraine, needlessly perpetuating a war that has killed or wounded hundreds of thousands in the last two years alone during which the frontlines have shifted by less than 1 percent of Ukraine’s territory. …“Even more tragic, whatever peace deal emerges after the war will be worse for Ukraine than the Minsk accords that Zelensky foolishly abandoned due to his political ambitions and naïve expectation of bottomless U.S. support.”

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[primer]

3:55 deals with this

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[PEMM]

For your viewing pleasure....




“I rarely agree with President Trump, but his latest controversial statements about Ukraine are mostly true. They only seem preposterous because western audiences have been fed a steady diet of disinformation about Ukraine for more than a decade. It is time to set the record straight on three key points that illuminate why Ukrainians and former President Joe Biden — not merely Russian President Vladimir Putin — bear significant responsibility for the outbreak and perpetuation of war in Ukraine.“First, as recently documented by overwhelming forensic evidence, and affirmed even by a Kyiv court, it was Ukrainian right-wing militants who started the violence in 2014 that provoked Russia’s initial invasion of the country’s southeast including Crimea. …“Second, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky contributed to a wider war by violating peace deals with Russia [known as Minsk 1 and 2] and seeking NATO military aid and membership. …“Third, Joe Biden too contributed crucially to the escalation and perpetuation of fighting. … Biden raised false hopes in Ukraine, needlessly perpetuating a war that has killed or wounded hundreds of thousands in the last two years alone during which the frontlines have shifted by less than 1 percent of Ukraine’s territory. …“Even more tragic, whatever peace deal emerges after the war will be worse for Ukraine than the Minsk accords that Zelensky foolishly abandoned due to his political ambitions and naïve expectation of bottomless U.S. support.”

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I have no way to verify how correct these are, but these several links here on this sentence all refer to same one guy as a source.

First, as recently documented by overwhelming forensic evidence, and affirmed even by a Kyiv court, it was Ukrainian right-wing militants who started the violence in 2014 that provoked Russia’s initial invasion of the country’s southeast including Crimea

https://thehill.com/opinion/5198022-ukraine-conflict-disinformation/

Note that the paper is not published on any journal apparently.

Someone has spent time debunking this.

Ivan Katchanovski is a falsifier of the Maidan massacre and contemporary history of Ukraine

Ivan Katchanovski is a falsifier of the Maidan massacre and contemporary history of Ukraine Ivan Katchanovski produced the pseudo-scientific paper named "The “Snipers’ Massacre” on the Maidan in Ukraine" which is based on the deliberate falsifications of the Maidan events. Everyone who closely...

ivan-katchanovski.blogspot.com

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[PEMM]

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[Musashi]

A Polish analyst said the the selective ceasefire would benefit RuZZia but not Ukraine. Both sides are supposed to cease attacks against power plants, while almost all the Ukrainian non-nuclear power plants had already been destroyed, so the RuZZians are running out of targets. In the meantime, the Ukrainians have developed the Long Neptune that can hit targets at the distance of 1000 km. On top of that, they have depended several models of very long range drones.
Western politicians tried to tie up Ukrainian soldiers’ balls by not allowing them to use foreign missiles to attack targets deep in RuZZia. When the Ukrainians developed their domestic long-range missiles, Trump decided to tie up their balks again.